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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #347,181
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:35pm Sep 18, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am holding my shorts even with no tapering markets change very quickly.It could turn around even without reason. Once retail traders switch 70% short to 60+Long I expect a massive sell out. Key area is Fib 78.6 and 86.6 which I painted brick red. Violation of this might suggest breach of last high 6380 {image}

dont worry stay strong..
  • #347,182
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:42pm Sep 18, 2013 1:42pm
Good day,

It has to be made quite clear at this point. NOT picking tops. Read through my posts - always acknowledged higher moves.

Let it be. Trading with a set of rules. Period.

Have your day, or 2 or 3.

I'll have mine.

Good night - gotta catch some ZZ

Regards
  • #347,183
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:50pm Sep 18, 2013 1:50pm
The elephant in the room. if the Fed puts of its taper, why would the BOE feel compelled to unwind its easy money policy.

Unless you expect the UKs excellent numbers to continue from now on indefinitely beating the largest economies and inflation to beat expectations even though the UK has a much stronger pound at the moment, then long Gbp (incidentally i expect uk figures to start to be on target/disappoint from october). i'm not convinced but i suppose i could be.

Finally we haven't reached breakout levels yet and i wasn't even considering a top until 1.5995 - 1.6243; mid point at 1.6120.

Your move carney
  • #347,184
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:50pm Sep 18, 2013 1:50pm
the whole market caravan was trying to predict how much FED would have cut their QE program...

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #347,185
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:06pm Sep 18, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting Moominpapa
The elephant in the room. if the Fed puts of its taper, why would the BOE feel compelled to unwind its easy money policy. Unless you expect the UKs excellent numbers to continue from now on indefinitely beating the largest economies and inflation to beat expectations even though the UK has a much stronger pound at the moment, then long Gbp (incidentally i expect uk figures to start to be on target/disappoint from october). i'm not convinced but i suppose i could be. Finally we haven't reached breakout levels yet and i wasn't even considering a top...

u reading my thoughts?
  • #347,186
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:08pm Sep 18, 2013 2:08pm
The elephant in the room. if the Fed continues with easy money, then what reason does the BOE have not to.

I dont expect UK to produce stellar numbers for ever, we've had about 3/4 months of that and from someone who lives in the UK i have my suspicions as to why that is. infact i expect UK numbers to be on target or disappoint from October onwards. MoM UK inflation will be affected to the downside by the rise in the pound so no pressure on BOE there.

The UK government is hell bent on inflating away their debt, that is why Carney was selected. He is failing miserably, although the UK public do not get this. He may now have to do a bit more than talk, remember he's made zero changes in the bank so far other persuading all member not to vote for QE, which is clearly hawkish, especially for a dove. In my humble opinion he has been behind the curve for quite a while.

I think we are very overbought but was never considering a top until 1.5995 to 1.6170. I may have to revise this now however to 1.6220 1.6380.
  • #347,187
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:08pm Sep 18, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting Moominpapa
The elephant in the room. if the Fed puts of its taper, why would the BOE feel compelled to unwind its easy money policy. Unless you expect the UKs excellent numbers to continue from now on indefinitely beating the largest economies and inflation to beat expectations even though the UK has a much stronger pound at the moment, then long Gbp (incidentally i expect uk figures to start to be on target/disappoint from october). i'm not convinced but i suppose i could be. Finally we haven't reached breakout levels yet and i wasn't even considering a top...
The will both reduce easing in the fullness of time. Meanwhile, many traders will go bust in the process. The market is very efficient like that.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #347,188
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:09pm Sep 18, 2013 2:09pm
sorry for double post, slow connection confused me
  • #347,189
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:13pm Sep 18, 2013 2:13pm
anyway i had a sell limit 6073.
quite triggered
i hope price will not go straight to 1.65 during asia session
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #347,190
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:14pm Sep 18, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} The will both reduce easing in the fullness of time. Meanwhile, many traders will go bust in the process. The market is very efficient like that.
couldn't agree more but who first,
  • #347,191
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:18pm Sep 18, 2013 2:18pm
Cut shorts. Risked what I wanted to risk, small .2 lots, so I will be back tomorrow.

Although I was highly skeptical of a taper, I wasn't expecting 175+ pips across the board lol

Cable may close below 1.61, but I don't see too much of a retrace. Looks like the fed's gonna blow up the dollar
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #347,192
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:21pm Sep 18, 2013 2:21pm
for the chronicle this is the chart with reasons and postion.
i just hope to close it near entry and then wait for something good to trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 37 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #347,193
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:22pm Sep 18, 2013 2:22pm
I may take a shot at the GBPUSD this evening after the excellent rally out of news - this action over 1.6100 looks great.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDsep18b.png Size: 48 KB
  • #347,194
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:46pm Sep 18, 2013 2:46pm
for those who lost during this move...
for those who did not even try to get the move...
and for everybody like me who loves rolling stones

Inserted Video
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #347,195
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:46pm Sep 18, 2013 2:46pm
Any body dared to short? I think it will go further up this week.
  • #347,196
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:12pm Sep 18, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am holding my shorts even with no tapering markets change very quickly.It could turn around even without reason. Once retail traders switch 70% short to 60+Long I expect a massive sell out. Key area is Fib 78.6 and 86.6 which I painted brick red. Violation of this might suggest breach of last high 6380 {image}
Your chart looks about like mine.................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #347,197
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:20pm Sep 18, 2013 3:20pm
It moved a long way in first minute. If anyone is not shy to say they were short and got stopped out, I would like to know what slippage was like for my own future planning.
  • #347,198
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:27pm Sep 18, 2013 3:27pm
When some one told us that there would be a 2.170 for this pair by the end of this year, i insulted hm. Bot now i am sorry
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #347,199
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:33pm Sep 18, 2013 3:33pm
6200 here we come
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #347,200
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:41pm Sep 18, 2013 3:41pm
6200 here we come
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
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