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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,801
  • Sep 16, 2013 9:22am Sep 16, 2013 9:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I see Bullish USD regardless... at least for the rest of the year anyway. After that, it will go back to it's normal engineered depreciation.
Ok I wanted to write a short answer, but am simply unable.

Bullish USD or Bearish EUR?

So bullish: I can see quite a few bumps on road to happy Europe, which will definitely weaken the currency, but all only short term. Am also prepared for a sellof in Yen, resulting yet again in strength of USD. Effects of QE are diminishing and corporate earning in USA werent great either, so we may be set for a sellof in SaP. Yields on 10y treasuries suggest selling pressures in bond market.

Bearish: However, see gold? I am kinda bullish, so there is a reason for weakness of USD here. And how about cracking retail sector in USA. It may and will dampen consumer spending, thus GDP. And how about that unemployment (err, I mean labour participation rate).

Most of bullish arguments are tied to failing QE. Well, we could as well have QE cubed, while the old one isnt working as desired. Unlike bearish arguments, which are linked to the real product and the real buying pressure from East. Well, not saying there is any improvement in Europe, but ... QE cubed. Moreover, also Kuroda-san is buing treasuries, so we may have QE expanded from Japan as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,802
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:22am Sep 16, 2013 10:22am
Former Fed official (and possible future Fed chair) Donald Kohn says very easy monetary policy can create dangerous risks
From talking-forex.com
I added the part in blue
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,803
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:41am Sep 16, 2013 11:41am
EJ - a few count options.

With PA hanging around 132.00 and no compelling evidence of direction, it is only possible to outline 3 options for PA in the coming weeks.

The 3 counts are color coded and annotated so should be self-explanatory. Note that should wave B (white count) unfold an additional X wave and zigzag (blue count) we could see PA go up to 138.40 as an absolute max (138% of wave A). For now the expectation is for USD weakness (and Yen strength) to draw price toward 128.00 or even 125.00. Not sure how this is going to lock-step with FOMC - or to turn it on it's head: perhaps this forecasts a tepid FOMC announcement (taper "Zero" as opposed to "Lite").

The red count has a diagonal wave 5 for the entire advance since 2012. This wave is really limp and unlike any diagonal I've seen so it's not my favourite count. Even so, should this be the case, we can expect a top near 134.50 in the coming weeks.

http://ubuntuone.com/6g9Ly71etlwow9DApL1aT1
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,804
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:49am Sep 16, 2013 11:49am
Too Big Has Failed: 3 Ways Wall Street Hurts You, In 3 Minutes

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  • #69,805
  • Sep 16, 2013 5:35pm Sep 16, 2013 5:35pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Ok I wanted to write a short answer, but am simply unable. Bullish USD or Bearish EUR? So bullish: I can see quite a few bumps on road to happy Europe, which will definitely weaken the currency, but all only short term. Am also prepared for a sellof in Yen, resulting yet again in strength of USD. Effects of QE are diminishing and corporate earning in USA werent great either, so we may be set for a sellof in SaP. Yields on 10y treasuries suggest selling pressures in bond market. Bearish: However, see gold? I am kinda bullish,...
It would be Both...IMO
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #69,806
  • Sep 16, 2013 7:20pm Sep 16, 2013 7:20pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trader...155416919.html
  • #69,807
  • Edited 6:46am Sep 17, 2013 12:16am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting magicgate
{quote} Hi All Technicals on daily 4H, 1H charts are down (+FridayTrap +Gap) Fundamentals looks more up than down, but the market mood is netrual, and bears peep out from the burrow Start shorting EU and GU.
Hi All
GU Short is closed +50pips, i didn't find EU enter
Now it's time to wait some volatility before FRS (30-100 at EU & GU), then I consider to reload new shorts
GU is more attractive because of technicals IMO
  • #69,808
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:30am Sep 17, 2013 6:30am
Caution: Dollars Risk and Rewards Soon To Be Delivered

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130917/...-be-delivered/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,809
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:03am Sep 17, 2013 10:03am
Euro Kiwi

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Kiwi Daily 09.17.13.png Size: 51 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,810
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:30am Sep 17, 2013 10:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I see Bullish USD regardless... at least for the rest of the year anyway. After that, it will go back to it's normal engineered depreciation.
What do you mean about engineered depreciation??? FED-TAP is announced till half of 2014... I can see alternatives . FED can delay the TAP moment, or make tomorrow a dovish TAP, and delay the real TAP, or the hawkish TAP. Tomorrow they can announce a Zero TAP ( although is random )

¿ Do you contemplate a never come back to the 1,27-28 area???
  • #69,811
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:48am Sep 17, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Ambar
{quote} What do you mean about engineered depreciation??? FED-TAP is announced till half of 2014... I can see alternatives . FED can delay the TAP moment, or make tomorrow a dovish TAP, and delay the real TAP, or the hawkish TAP. Tomorrow they can announce a Zero TAP ( although is random ) ¿ Do you contemplate a never come back to the 1,27-28 area???
Ignore that Ambar. I was just being sarcastic. Of course the USD has a long way up to go before the G10 and EM currencies stage a strong enough recovery to outperform the USD. Clearly USD strength will persist for a few years at least. I am just frustrated with how the market is behaving and making stupid comments because of that,
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,812
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:54am Sep 17, 2013 10:54am
Grad school is keeping me busy so I have not posted much, but I have been following the thread.

Here are some technicals I'm watching this week (H4 chart is just to make viewing easier):

-Rising trend line from September 6th low at ~3103 to this week (blue line), a trend test/break today would occur around 3330 (Not likely ahead of the news)
-Area of S/R at 3325 (Green line)
-High chance of volatility coming tomorrow and Thursday due to hot news from FOMC and others
-RSI 5 and 14 on Daily and weekly (not shown) not yet showing sufficiently overbought/sold signs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-09-17 at 10.43.31 AM.png Size: 84 KB


Be well all and happy hunting!!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #69,813
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:58am Sep 17, 2013 10:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ignore that Ambar. I was just being sarcastic. Of course the USD has a long way up to go before the G10 and EM currencies stage a strong enough recovery to outperform the USD. Clearly USD strength will persist for a few years at least. I am just frustrated with how the market is behaving and making stupid comments because of that,
Ah, Ok.
¿what about a never come back to 1,28 area??
  • #69,814
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:00am Sep 17, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Grad school is keeping me busy so I have not posted much, but I have been following the thread. Here are some technicals I'm watching this week (H4 chart is just to make viewing easier): -Rising trend line from September 6th low at ~3103 to this week (blue line), a trend test/break today would occur around 3330 (Not likely ahead of the news) -Area of S/R at 3325 (Green line) -High chance of volatility coming tomorrow and Thursday due to hot news from FOMC and others -RSI 5 and 14 on Daily and weekly (not shown) not yet showing sufficiently overbought/sold...

I like your chart, it is clean and delivers the point succinctly

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,815
  • Edited 5:40pm Sep 17, 2013 11:02am | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting Ambar
{quote} Ah, Ok. ¿what about a never come back to 1,28 area??
You might be asking the wrong person if you want a truly unbiased opinion because I see the Euro below 1.2500 this year and even lower next year.

In fact, if the US experiences higher than expected inflation in 2014 & 2015, which I believe is very probable, then we might even see parity or lower. I think my longer term EW counts have an ultimate target of around 0.9400 for the E/U

Edit: Type. Meant to type 0.9800 and not 0.9400
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,816
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:46am Sep 17, 2013 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You might be asking the wrong person if you want a truly unbiased opinion because I see the Euro below 1.2500 this year and even lower next year. In fact, if the US experiences higher than expected inflation in 2014 & 2015, which I believe is very probable, then we might even see parity or lower. I think my longer term EW counts have an ultimate target of around 0.9400 for the E/U
  • #69,817
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:47pm Sep 17, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You might be asking the wrong person if you want a truly unbiased opinion because I see the Euro below 1.2500 this year and even lower next year. In fact, if the US experiences higher than expected inflation in 2014 & 2015, which I believe is very probable, then we might even see parity or lower. I think my longer term EW counts have an ultimate target of around 0.9400 for the E/U

I would really like that prediction is correct...
  • #69,818
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:40pm Sep 17, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} I would really like that prediction is correct...
I think the entire retail crowd wishes it to be correct... including me.
We have to take things one step at a time. Let's see if we can break below 1.2750 and then 1.2500 first... then we shall see what comes next.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,819
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:41pm Sep 17, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting rekon67
{quote}
You like that number, don't you?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,820
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:43pm Sep 17, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You might be asking the wrong person if you want a truly unbiased opinion because I see the Euro below 1.2500 this year and even lower next year. In fact, if the US experiences higher than expected inflation in 2014 & 2015, which I believe is very probable, then we might even see parity or lower. I think my longer term EW counts have an ultimate target of around 0.9400 for the E/U
Yes, I understand is the logical and fundamental way, but the fact that astonishing me ,is the reaction that the bias has always had at 27-28 area during this year. I recognize that I'm a newbie, so if got only one year view, but it looks that if there would be an agreement in order not to cross that area.
I do not see the bias under 1'20. 1,20 was when Spain was under rumours to be bailed out, and Cyprus disaster and bailed out didn't cross 1'27 area again.
I see that the FED is in a crossroad. They had to Tap but they do not know how to do it in order not produce a disaster in the Economy and Bond and Stock Market.
The way they will be able to manage this Tap, in order not produce a crash is the important fact. FED has got in mind the effect in the Bias in June- 650 points, just only because they said there were a planning about tapering. I think they want to manage the Tap more gradually as expected, in order that the Bubble they have created doesn't explote in their faces before BB finishing his position. No FED's chairman wants finishing with a crash that he has produced himself. And Merkel's reelections is in Sunday, so this produces me doubts about tomorrow reaction, or FED minutes.
Anyway, very happy to share ideas with you, with a lot of respect.
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