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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,781
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:32am Sep 16, 2013 1:32am
Euro

Lines have been re-drawn...

Interestingly, a lot of folks still wanna short this pair (I am one of them), but I am not seeing any compelling reason yet

The Sequential Sell may have resulted in a congestion phase... which may now be (almost) over...

Momentum exhaustion + rejection at the 50% may give some clues...

However, the bullish bounce on the 61.8 (not shown) @~27226 may paint a bullish picture setting targets much higher,

Better to stay flexible methinks

The Bearish View

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,782
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:37am Sep 16, 2013 1:37am
Quoting magicgate
{quote} Hi All Technicals on daily 4H, 1H charts are down (+FridayTrap +Gap) Fundamentals looks more up than down, but the market mood is netrual, and bears peep out from the burrow Start shorting EU and GU.
and keep your stops wide - pushes up above their **00 levels should be sufficient to take out most of the retail guys that have just shorted to close the gaps....I'm long € from ~FO....watching cable....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,783
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:58am Sep 16, 2013 1:58am
EJ

The Demand Line break was unqualified...

Now shes bouncing around trying to find a direction (like a college student!)

Momentum is shot to hell...

H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,784
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:23am Sep 16, 2013 3:23am
Euro Pound

Blue line is 144LWMA, holding this level is critical

failure does not imply a bear market by default...
there are fib supports shown on the chart (ellipse zone) along the way...

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Pound Weekly 09.16.13.png Size: 56 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,785
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:30am Sep 16, 2013 3:30am
Quoting theDHT
Euro Lines have been re-drawn... Interestingly, a lot of folks still wanna short this pair (I am one of them), but I am not seeing any compelling reason yet The Sequential Sell may have resulted in a congestion phase... which may now be (almost) over... Momentum exhaustion + rejection at the 50% may give some clues... However, the bullish bounce on the 61.8 (not shown) @~27226 may paint a bullish picture setting targets much higher, Better to stay flexible methinks The Bearish View Weekly {image}

DHT,

Hope you're well. I don't have analysis for EJ yet. Will post when I have a handle - as you say: PA is meandering and nothing solid to work with.

As for the surprising news about Summers being out of the picture, I think this is a sign that the Fed don't want to rock the boat and want to pussy-foot for as long as possible. Dovish forward guidance with the markets in constant suspence as to the next "installment" seems to be the formula. So, we could expect the deafening sound of nothing from the FOMC. If they were going to rock the markets into a new phase they've had plenty of opportunities and time.

Regarding EU and DXY: given the main hawk has stepped down and without any radical changes or risk-off triggers it will probably be more of the same. Equities up, USD down, EU up and Gold up. I am inclined to abondon the Yen pairs (and the rest) in favour of high beta XAU/XAG and adopt opportunistic scalping as the modus operandi in this forward-guided mess that cannot be trend-traded for all its moving targets!

As i write this, I see EJ and UJ are falling through longterm support in slow motion.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,786
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:35am Sep 16, 2013 3:35am
Quoting venzen
{quote} DHT, Hope you're well. I don't have analysis for EJ yet. Will post when I have a handle - as you say: PA is meandering and nothing solid to work with. As for the surprising news about Summers being out of the picture, I think this is a sign that the Fed don't want to rock the boat and want to pussy-foot for as long as possible. Dovish forward guidance with the markets in constant suspence as to the next "installment" seems to be the formula. So, we could expect the deafening sound of nothing from the FOMC. If they were going to rock the...

Hey dude,

I dropped you a couple of pm's last night! (EJ and GJ bias still mixed, UJ firmly bearish)

A great piece by Marc Chandler:

a key takeaway:

"..There are mathematically only three possibilities: the Fed does what the market expects, it does less, or it does more. Only under the last scenario would we expect U.S. Treasuries to sell off and for the dollar to rally and we would ascribe to it the lowest of odds..."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694...the-week-ahead
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,787
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:45am Sep 16, 2013 3:45am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Hey dude, I dropped you a couple of pm's last night! (EJ and GJ bias still mixed, UJ firmly bearish) A great piece by Marc Chandler: a key takeaway: "..There are mathematically only three possibilities: the Fed does what the market expects, it does less, or it does more. Only under the last scenario would we expect U.S. Treasuries to sell off and for the dollar to rally and we would ascribe to it the lowest of odds..." http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694...the-week-ahead

Thanks DHT, i got your PMs!

I see UJ battling 98.00 today and EJ at 130.50 as a result. This is good progress and if trend has indeed turned down, it could be for the next few weeks: EW count (which I will post) has few options for PA and requires some forgotten levels to be revisited! Like 128.00 and perhaps 125.x. A less aggressive minimum target is 130.50 and seems it will be achieved with minimum fuss
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,788
  • Sep 16, 2013 3:50am Sep 16, 2013 3:50am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Thanks DHT, i got your PMs! I see UJ battling 98.00 today and EJ at 130.50 as a result. This is good progress and if trend has indeed turned down, it could be for the next few weeks: EW count (which I will post) has few options for PA and requires some forgotten levels to be revisited! Like 128.00 and perhaps 125.x. A less aggressive minimum target is 130.50 and seems it will be achieved with minimum fuss

You know that I want the same thing as you, but I also wanna manage my expectations...

the "rubicon" is still far away (~200 pips @~129)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6962853
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,789
  • Sep 16, 2013 4:20am Sep 16, 2013 4:20am
Okay folks. Time for my daily outing... Beautiful blue sea, here I come. Please warm up the cappuccino machine

I'll be back for NY session unless I get distracted along the way
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,790
  • Sep 16, 2013 5:51am Sep 16, 2013 5:51am
a primer on Janet Yellen:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1695...-chief-zzzzzzz
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,791
  • Sep 16, 2013 6:46am Sep 16, 2013 6:46am
Hi PT
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,792
  • Sep 16, 2013 6:48am Sep 16, 2013 6:48am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi PT
Wow. How you doing Tom. It's been a long time since I have seen a post from you.
Hope all is well
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,793
  • Sep 16, 2013 6:54am Sep 16, 2013 6:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Wow. How you doing Tom. It's been a long time since I have seen a post from you. Hope all is well
All great mate, I just got stuck up cause my friend broke his arm, so I took his job so he wont loose it . + now I lost 3 weeks because they really annoyed me at Oanda, so have been switching broker. Right now testing Dukas.

Hope you live well and prosper mate .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,794
  • Sep 16, 2013 7:21am Sep 16, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} All great mate, I just got stuck up cause my friend broke his arm, so I took his job so he wont loose it . + now I lost 3 weeks because they really annoyed me at Oanda, so have been switching broker. Right now testing Dukas. Hope you live well and prosper mate .
Of course... as always
Hoope the same for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,795
  • Edited 8:03am Sep 16, 2013 7:38am | Edited 8:03am
Well ofc this is not an analysis, am going to write some more about it, but I suppose you guys are shorting or preparing to short Yen?

edit: So it is not a completely useless post but a bit useless one, SaP through roof pushing USD value down. Imo there is not much of a reason for strong yen given Kurodas actions. + those power plants + demography.

Btw, while blathering here, you know there is a huricane season in US? Could postpone that Yen short. And err, hows Merkel? Seems Euro like elections so far, another reason to postpone Yen short.

Edit2: Hah, just joking with those hurricanes . But it is a nice chart, isnt it?
Source: TTMYGH
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hurricanesUS.JPG Size: 50 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,796
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:32am Sep 16, 2013 8:32am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well ofc this is not an analysis, am going to write some more about it, but I suppose you guys are shorting or preparing to short Yen? edit: So it is not a completely useless post but a bit useless one, SaP through roof pushing USD value down. Imo there is not much of a reason for strong yen given Kurodas actions. + those power plants + demography. Btw, while blathering here, you know there is a huricane season in US? Could postpone that Yen short. And err, hows Merkel? Seems Euro like elections so far, another reason to postpone Yen short. Edit2:...
Florida... The best place to set up wind farms for power generation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,797
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:33am Sep 16, 2013 8:33am
~ If there is no nominee by Sept. 18, when policy makers conclude their meeting, “there will be questions about how much faith to put into the forward guidance” on monetary policy. ~


Fed Leadership Doubt Erodes Low-Rate Message as QE Taper Looms

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...per-looms.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,798
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:55am Sep 16, 2013 8:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...per-looms.html
Lol Summers canceled? No problem, I like to short USD.

But can it be that in fact it doesnt matter whos going to be next chairman, as the main reason for switching BB is his taper talk. New governor can be anyone who wont stop the press .

Yo Obama, me looking for job!

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,799
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:58am Sep 16, 2013 8:58am
Anyway, should be high impact bullish news for USD and bearish for SaP. Yet USD is still weakening and SaP is up, though only 0,27%. Really, market doesnt care and press wont stop.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #69,800
  • Sep 16, 2013 9:00am Sep 16, 2013 9:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Anyway, should be high impact bullish news for USD and bearish for SaP. Yet USD is still weakening and SaP is up, though only 0,27%. Really, market doesnt care and press wont stop.
I see Bullish USD regardless... at least for the rest of the year anyway. After that, it will go back to it's normal engineered depreciation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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