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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #346,981
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:29pm Sep 15, 2013 5:29pm
Lol x 2

Just from a pure R:R point of view - you wouldn't touch it with a shitty stick.

A lot on the short side getting hurt even more by the gap up...eg 90% of lots at trade explorer here short now equating to 73% of traders...hoping that the gap will at least close doubtless to ease some of the pain.

G/L

Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} He rejected the "opportunity" to oversee the biggest shambles in recent US/global economic history for a measly $200K. You are right, he is no idiot...
ex member
  • #346,982
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:53pm Sep 15, 2013 5:53pm
Must be a few getting hurt by this. The problem is the big players know there are a lot who are caught offside.
I wonder how many are shorting GBPUSD who don't actually live in the UK.
I can see this going to 1.60 easy, maybe 1.63, who knows. The key thing is, it's possible that this is (or the market wants to believe this is) a sustainable return to growth that is built on the changes that have been implemented by the incumbent government. If that's true, it could have quite a way to run.
It's dangerous to pick tops in strong markets. You might win 9 times out of 10, but on the 10th, you could end up being carried out.
One possibility, for the shorts, is that they will ramp it up til the FOMC, then dump it into/after the meeting. Who knows. Certainly not I.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #346,983
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:02pm Sep 15, 2013 6:02pm
will be interensting to see at what point people will start buying cable!


lol
EU opened straight at my target
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #346,984
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:09pm Sep 15, 2013 6:09pm
5950 is extremely important level in cable.
i don't think is good just to blindly short here because market could become insane during tokio, but here definetly starts the range where i will be interested to join the bear side (5950 - 6080)

but for the moment...
i'm going to sleep!

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #346,985
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:54pm Sep 15, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting 5percent
The more retailers are shorting at this level is quite dangerous, will only lead to further breakout. Our former resistance is 1.5750 June's and 1.5744 few days back. I won't go short unless weekly close under former's hi and wait for new short opportunity next week! One thing i learned in this market, just like the AUD's breakout from 1.0150, gold 1520, GBP's 1.58 formerly. When price crossed major range's resistance/support. Don't attempt to counter until dust settled down or a range is re-formed. Else, prone to breakout. More stop...

This goes well like AUD's breakout from 1.0150 into 0.93. And yet many people were going against the falling knife. And right now, there are herds of bulls in the market. Trading what one sees is important then filling it with "opinions and instinct".

For me, i potentially look for resistance turns support on 1.5750-44's level to continue to go long instead of seeking short opportunities. The short from this level would look more like retracement/pullback against the current flow of momentum. Any RSI that dashes through 69 into the 70s range with price action above Highest Hi is a potentially breakout pattern just like selling off below RSI 30. Price is no longer overbought on the context that the range is broken. Daily is bull until otherwise. My sell stops are below daily's lo.

Weekly's resistance was a full marabuzo with limited supply zone and bullish closing on GBP. With this gapped up, PA may pullback to friday's resistance and finds support. However, failing to sustain above last week's closing high upon pullback will see more retracement into the concern area of 1.5755-44.

1.5755 was the pullback from the 1.5830 spike on last thursday's claimount count, where support was found above June's resistance.

Most gapped up commonly a uptrend upon pullback, and gapped down a potential down trend. One can looked back their charts to see the common behavior. However, i may not dismiss this as a false break.

A note is that, all these up move maybe potentially caused by stop losses from those shorts held from below where trader may have shorted from 1.48-1.57 and led to margin call or stop losses.

Just my experience with the market.
  • #346,986
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:03pm Sep 15, 2013 7:03pm
cdndollar| Sep 9, 2013
http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ar294966_2.gif
Today we have another Deja Vu snapshot in history with [email protected], [email protected], & [email protected]
The last time the Trio had the same M/T level alignment was back in April, 2009 with Euro rising from there to year end peaking @1.51 while EURJPY was squeezed in a wide range with USDJPY declining from the 101 M/T peak & a rising Dow..
The trio is under similiar prevailing inter-market dynamics this time.. Deja Vu or Stinky Tofu?
EURUSD vs EURJPY vs USDJPY vs DJI
Attached Image
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1378695160


Our eccentric old fella, Cable climb 15+ figures under the same M/T level alignment..
  • #346,987
  • Edited 7:25pm Sep 15, 2013 7:11pm | Edited 7:25pm
A bearish Crab and an AB=CD are almost complete.

The pattern reversal zone (PRZ) is estimated to be in the range of [1.5900, 1.5980] according to harmonic coordinates and resistance lines.

You could either short at 1.5980, or when CCI(14) breaks the 100 mark. A safer way to approach reversal is take shorts on the break of the red uptrend line, since it will be certainly a bearish trigger.

Targets to take profit are 1.5420 and 1.5270 and 1.5070.

Order: Short
Entry: 1.5980
TP: 1.5420 and 1.5270, 1.5070
SL: 1.6020
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #346,988
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:43pm Sep 15, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting guess121
{quote} Some idiot said he's not running for the fed job. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...-reserve-chief
Well, the US economy is a consumer nation so strong dollar does not mean bad time for the economy. Strong dollar will bring lower oil & gas and low inflation. Low inflation is of utmost importance to the stability of the US economy considering Consumers are tapped out and wage growth is 0.
  • #346,989
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:53pm Sep 15, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
A bearish Crab and an AB=CD are almost complete. The pattern reversal zone (PRZ) is estimated to be in the range of [1.5900, 1.5980] according to harmonic coordinates and resistance lines. You could either short at 1.5980, or when CCI(14) breaks the 100 mark. A safer way to approach reversal is take shorts on the break of the red uptrend line, since it will be certainly a bearish trigger. Targets to take profit are 1.5420 and 1.5270 and 1.5070. Order: Short Entry: 1.5980 TP: 1.5420 and 1.5270, 1.5070 SL: 1.6020 {image}

a solid post, very welcomed
Money never sleeps...
  • #346,990
  • Sep 15, 2013 8:24pm Sep 15, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} what world are you living in? the 1900 level has not been seen in many a moon FYI: current price is ~1320, and the recent low is ~1180... if a ~60% sell off (1900-1180) does not constitute being massive, then I am not sure what to say to you but, that's not even what we were talking about... if you are going to jump into a conversation between two people, then at the very least, you should understand the context of what they are talking about, before tying to hi-jack it... its basic etiquette... + strategy 101... this thread is about Cable,...

Hello Sir,

I came here to discuss cable during the slow weekend and noticed a gold discussion and jumped in.
My apologies, not trying to pick a fight either, yet at first glance it appeared whatever discussion was going on was moving rather slowly.

Due to the fact that this is the "cable" thread, My initial or rather latter question as I posted was "who here thinks cable is kicking ass?"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS: Yes the all time high was 1900, yet you cannot look at the chart as a "selloff" from 1990 to 1180, it just does not work that way any way you want to slice it.
There was range from 1800 to 1550 for about a YEAR, before the price finally just broke the 1550 support level on correction from the high and failed attempts to reclaim the 1800 handle.

So 1550 - 1180 = .......... Be happy to discuss this further at any point. Not looking to disrupt the thread here,
My thread is here. Please feel free to stop by for further discussion on this topic.
Last post
Post One

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Lastly, I am waiting for a new burst of appx 100 pips on cable take out and likely retest a break of 1.60 which I have been looking forward to for some time now.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #346,991
  • Sep 15, 2013 8:47pm Sep 15, 2013 8:47pm
What i will do, look at pullback zone and see reaction on areas of concern going in upon tested.

Further buy stops current hi above during Europe Sessions.

This is a 1 hour chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #346,992
  • Sep 15, 2013 9:01pm Sep 15, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting 5percent
My areas of concern for tonight. I am going for 50-100 pips run on a risk of 20 pip each . I think those trapped in a trade before tonight are probably feeling pressured, as obviously its ranging till a real movement, not so ideal to get into a trade that doesn't show a direction. my beneath- long on BE. This is not technical trading, but US-Volatility trading, only to spot trend and follow, and exit! The green and red zone serves as traffic light for bull/bear. However, failure to push price within the 10-15 minutes and closing above resistance...
Quoting 5percent
if meant to go up, buy top above yesterday's hi . 1.5840. take 1.5843 will do. 1.5843 for 1.6. Weekly close! above 1.5755 = Bull. If hourly closed under 1.5840 upon hit, will close out earlier before stop loss, as resistance will still stands. 20 pips stop loss for big break out.

Trader should look for price action of what they have seen on levels and react accordingly then to be picking top and bottom.
  • #346,993
  • Sep 15, 2013 9:27pm Sep 15, 2013 9:27pm
closed the 1.5890 weekly gap(in middle week of jan) by a good 50 pips. I can see only one good price to target on the upside now and i.e 1.6152. if it fails to cross that in this week this is beginning of a new downtrend.
  • #346,994
  • Sep 15, 2013 9:39pm Sep 15, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting giveachance
closed the 1.5890 weekly gap(in middle week of jan) by a good 50 pips. I can see only one good price to target on the upside now and i.e 1.6152. if it fails to cross that in this week this is beginning of a new downtrend.
Sorry to hear you a such a limited view

It is Forex, anything can happen

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #346,995
  • Sep 15, 2013 9:42pm Sep 15, 2013 9:42pm
A1 Short entry @ 1.5951, stop 1.5960. -> Short term pull back shorts to 1.5895-85 or 1.5840.

Will look for reaction upon reaching levels. Trade will be automatically BE upon 1.5928 broken, and stop loss will be taken upon 1.5960. Current hour close will determined the validity of my position. Hour close above 1.5950, position likely invalid, close under 1.5950 = likely valid.

Further sell stops below 1.5927 to be activated favorably in Europe Sessions for the levels stated earlier, upon sell stop activated. Earlier A1 short will be BE + trail.

If price re surged back from 1.5927 into Asia's range of 1.5952-1.5928. A1 short entry will be taken profit to buffer as the stop loss risk for 1.5927's entry.

Price may also received a surprise support on 1.5909 as 38.2 of 1.5838-1.5952.

But i generally favored a test on friday's high 1.5883-95.

1.5895 is the estimated target of Current Range's Breakout to pull back lower.
  • #346,996
  • Edited 10:25pm Sep 15, 2013 10:04pm | Edited 10:25pm
all jumped against usd or a gap apparent specially gu & audusd . anyway there should have some limits too .
next see what, better wait a > top formation again , before the jump.once come for a gap if then should not go up easily again .


Gold gap also if already closed & it was likely correct last weekend , 1340,51,60,64,73 , even 83 or up before next leg down , immediate limit for down is 1360.

anyway it is future telling but believe once for all formula in this case of currencies , when will start down will not back again so soon.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #346,997
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:08pm Sep 15, 2013 10:08pm
5th Elliot-wave complete, as per AB-CD pattern.

CCI(11) shows promising bears.

Will price retrace from here or reverse?

I'm betting on the latter for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #346,998
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:09pm Sep 15, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting 5percent
A1 Short entry @ 1.5951, stop 1.5960. -> Short term pull back shorts to 1.5895-85 or 1.5840. Will look for reaction upon reaching levels. Trade will be automatically BE upon 1.5928 broken, and stop loss will be taken upon 1.5960. Current hour close will determined the validity of my position. Hour close above 1.5950, position likely invalid, close under 1.5950 = likely valid. Further sell stops below 1.5927 to be activated favorably in Europe Sessions for the levels stated earlier, upon sell stop activated. Earlier A1 short will be BE + trail. If...

1.5890 is my target for the moment for today
  • #346,999
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:10pm Sep 15, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Sorry to hear you a such a limited view It is Forex, anything can happen

well nobody is positioned for a big upside from here. 1.63 would make UK the best destination to park in money. In my opinion all the QE effect for the past 2 years is starting to show in the GBP data.
  • #347,000
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:19pm Sep 15, 2013 10:19pm
If you read the paper from the Bank of England website, the fundamentally economic data said that it was better than the starting of May month.
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