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Sonic R. System

  • #59,081
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:07am Sep 15, 2013 6:07am
Dear Prof. TAH,

My first post here.

I have read the minimum required in here, and am very impressed with your results.
Congratulations !

What I noticed is that your PVSRA method seems very close to the very established
VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) method pioneered by John Wyckoff in 1888 and then
improved upon by Tom Williams in the 1970s as in his 1993 trading book.

Two reference links here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 (Todd Krueger's article on FF:Shamus.)
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...is/index2.html (Summary v1&2 included.)

Theory questions:

1. How close can we get to actual contract (i.e. dollars traded) volume using MT4 tick volume?
2. Is the difference above a cause of not ascertaining when the MMs will act?
3. Could relative currency strength concepts (e.g., hanover's http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158 etc.) play a part in MM intention or action determinations?
4. Do we need to keep manually scanning the 28 pairs and pick the most promising candidates, or is there some
automated tool available? As in #3 above, for instance? Of course there are a few major pairs one can always concentrate upon (e.g., EU, GU, UJ, AU.)

Regards,
Athar.
  • #59,082
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:40am Sep 15, 2013 6:40am
Quoting Islander
A Reality Check Like Sonic, TAH and other experienced traders who take the time to post here, I am becoming increasingly annoyed by general ignorance and lack of basic understanding as shown by many recent posts. Trading Forex is a serious, very difficult occupation. To become a professional in any major field - Accountant, Doctor, Lawyer etc you need first to study at a University and get a degree - so at minimum four years of studying - say 8,000 hours - during which time you are a student - a newbie...
Bravo, Islander. Good said. It hits the nail on the head!
Hunting High and Low
  • #59,083
  • Sep 15, 2013 10:50am Sep 15, 2013 10:50am
Quoting Islander
A Reality Check Like Sonic, TAH and other experienced traders who take the time to post here, I am becoming increasingly annoyed by general ignorance and lack of basic understanding as shown by many recent posts. Trading Forex is a serious, very difficult occupation. To become a professional in any major field - Accountant, Doctor, Lawyer etc you need first to study at a University and get a degree - so at minimum four years of studying - say 8,000 hours - during which time you are a student - a newbie. Then...
MALCOLM GLADWELL - Outliers: The Story of Success

"...Achievement is talent plus preparation. The problem with this view is that the closer psychologists look at the careers of the gifted, the smaller the role innate talent seems to play and the bigger the role preparation seems to play..."

Throughout the publication, Gladwell repeatedly mentions the "10,000-Hour Rule", claiming that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours.

Aldous Huxley says, "Happiness is not achieved by the conscious pursuit of happiness; it is generally the by-product of other activities."

The same holds true for the money: money is a by-product of your professional activity whatever it is. If you want to make money by forex trading, forget the money part, invest into yourself first and become a professional trader.

Newcomers, ask yourselves one single question: am I ready to invest into myself 10,000 hours to become a pro? Money will come afterwards.
Mind the gap
  • #59,084
  • Edited 11:55am Sep 15, 2013 11:43am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting traderathome
I doubt there are many traders at Forex Factory that can testify to such success as this, if any at all. I say this not to boast about myself, but about PVSRA.
Lets discuss some actual $ figures here. You will object and claim that pips / percentage matter, not dollars. Wrong. You don't live off of Pips; you live off of Dollars. You will object and claim that as the account size moves up, size can be increased and therefore more $s will be earned. True, yet what sort of account size do you need to make a living with when you have to handle 76,146 pips of drawdown?

Attached is a spreadsheet that will show you. It uses some assumptions, the biggest of which is the % of your account you are willing to accept in drawdown at any given point. I have never met a trader that would accept greater than 2-3% drawdown from any open position, but given that your method is not a day trading method, I put in 25% as the default max % drawdown. Now I can't imagine having 25% of my account just floating as a loss, so I'm not sure this is remotely realistic, but might be for PVSRA-ers. Other assumptions include weekly profit and pips drawdown. I filled these assumptions with your actual results - I used your DD less the EJ trade that is another 17,000 pips in drawdown.

The result? You would need a $200,000 account to make a $53,000 gross salary.

Now the other side of the coin - for someone that uses a stop and bases trade size on that stop and the account size. We'll compare the Pips it takes to earn the same salary as calculated in the above example. Some more assumptions need to be put in for the trader with traditional stop. I use a max stop of 12 pips, and never risk more than 2% on any trade, so I'll use those imputs for now.

The result? An intraday trader that uses stops would need only 3 pips average per week to equal the same return for the same account size as a PVSRA trader who needs to earn 1,284 pips.

I don't want to harass you about your method - it seems to work. However, I do think you should be held accountable for outlandish statements you make. I'm damn well sure many, many traders with equal account sizes of yours have averaged 3 pips or more per week, including the founder of this thread, Sonic. Therefore, I'm damn well sure that there are traders that can boast to your succes plus much more. Sure I bet you won in the Pips contest, but as we very well know, Pips don't pay mortgages. Money pays mortgages.

So you counter and say larger account size using PVSRA would allow for larger positions and therefore larger profits. Sure, but lets go back to the traditional stop trader for a moment. 3 pips a week, as mentioned above as being the break even point between the traditional method and PVSRA, is a very, very small amount. I'm not a great trader, but make typically 75 pips a week. I bet Islander does at least double if not triple that - we'll just use my measely 75 pips a week as the assumption for now. We'll continue to use 2% risk and 12 pips stop as the other assumptions.

The result? An intraday trader that uses stops and that could average 75 pips a week would make 24.34 times as much Dollars as a PVSRA-er. One other way of saying this is that it would take an account size of $225,000 trading PVSRA to "safely" create the same return as a traditional stop-using trader with an account of $10,000.

Granted there are a number of assumptions that go into all these calculations, but the real point of it is that Pips are not created equal - sure you have made a lot of them, but it doesn't translate into a lot of profit.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Salary Calc.xlsx   13 KB | 624 downloads
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #59,085
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:03pm Sep 15, 2013 2:03pm
GJ gaps open again. That is three gaps up that have not been closed. Scandalous! MM are at it again.
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  • #59,086
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:14pm Sep 15, 2013 2:14pm
GJ gap closed followed by a stop hunt to the down side. All this will most brokers are closed. MM at their best.
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  • #59,087
  • Edited 3:16pm Sep 15, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 3:16pm
Quoting Apollo14
I've made major changes in search engine trends, I do not have all the currencies, you can enjoy the wading overview of the cros available to me, EU ready GU for tonight comprehensive analysis. Enjoy the weekend. EU http://wp.me/p3N6R9-pr (old engine only, the new do not work on GU ... for the moment) GU http://wp.me/p3N6R9-pI (((( This is test with old engine [on bottom] http://wp.me/p3N6R9-pr ))))
UPDATED VIEW SOME CROSS

UJ http://wp.me/p3N6R9-pR

UC http://wp.me/p3N6R9-pZ

New engine do not work out of EU, we work for some day too.
500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #59,088
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:20pm Sep 15, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting Islander
A Reality Check Like Sonic, TAH and other experienced traders who take the time to post here, I am becoming increasingly annoyed by general ignorance and lack of basic understanding as shown by many recent posts. Trading Forex is a serious, very difficult occupation. To become a professional in any major field - Accountant, Doctor, Lawyer etc you need first to study at a University and get a degree - so at minimum four years of studying - say 8,000 hours - during which time you are a student - a newbie. Then when you get your first job you have...
Big words

Although it seems obvious, it is always necessary to say this. I think many people feel frustrated, with this and other systems, with this and other issues in life, and the reason is precisely that you explain.

Everything costs a lot of work. Without perseverance, no gain, they say in my village. At least I've learned in my home, and life has taught me.

Cheers for Pip Pirate.

PS: I'm pleased to have achieved my 2500 hours (September 1, was a year that started with trading ).
Newbie trader
  • #59,089
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:29pm Sep 15, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} TVI + OBV, all about volumes
Of course. Silly me. Cheers
  • #59,090
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:33pm Sep 15, 2013 2:33pm
Last week's posted trades with charts showed daily totals gained of +$80, +$88, +$110, +$109 & + $100, thereby doubling the notional $,1000 starting ammount, whilst keeping maximun gearing / leverage to less than half of the US Traders maximum of 50:1 - thus IMO confirming that there is merit in the Three Dragons methodology.

As has been mentioned, this is NOT easy to do, but with time, disiclipine and hard work, it is possible and hopefully some will be able to duplicate and improve on what I have shown. It has taken me more than 15,000 hours of screen time, study and work on Forex alone and in sharing this I hope to shorten the journey of others.

Now, with the end of the Summer Doldrums upon us, I will only be posting a couple of times a day, AFTER I have finished my own trading.

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #59,091
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:34pm Sep 15, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting Islander
A Reality Check Like Sonic, TAH and other experienced traders who take the time to post here, I am becoming increasingly annoyed by general ignorance and lack of basic understanding as shown by many recent posts. Trading Forex is a serious, very difficult occupation. To become a professional in any major field - Accountant, Doctor, Lawyer etc you need first to study at a University and get a degree - so at minimum four years of studying - say 8,000 hours - during which time you are a student - a newbie. Then when you get your first job you have...
Three cheers for Islander and our other seniors.
  • #59,092
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:35pm Sep 15, 2013 2:35pm
GBPNZD - I watching this pair.
D1 - strong support and trendline
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H1 - Price above whole numer 1.9500 increase volumen
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M1 PSVRA
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  • #59,093
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:28pm Sep 15, 2013 3:28pm
Large gap down forming in pre trading before other brokers open.
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  • #59,094
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:31pm Sep 15, 2013 5:31pm
Good Luck is What Happens When Opportunity and Preparedness Meet

My hat is off to Islander. Islander made a selfless investment of his own time to point out reality for folks here.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post6965279

-tah
  • #59,095
  • Edited 7:06pm Sep 15, 2013 6:01pm | Edited 7:06pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Lets discuss some actual $ figures here. You will object and claim that pips / percentage matter, not dollars. Wrong. You don't live off of Pips; you live off of Dollars. You will object and claim that as the account size moves up, size can be increased and therefore more $s will be earned. True, yet what sort of account size do you need to make a living with when you have to handle 76,146 pips of drawdown? Attached is a spreadsheet that will show you. It uses some assumptions, the biggest of which is the % of your account you are willing...
"....You will object and claim that pips / percentage matter, not dollars. Wrong....." - jmflukeiii

jmflukeiii,

Yes, I do object. And for the purpose of the Sonic R. System thread I am not wrong. Pips traded by Sonicers might be $0.10 pips, or $1.00 pips or $10.00 pips. It all depends on how big a trade the Sonicer makes. And that will depend in large part on how big an account the Sonicer has. I do not now, nor have I ever approved of anyone divulging how big they trade. That is personal and should remain so. Therefore, counting pips made, not monies made, levels the playing field. Only recently, with the advent of PVSRA, has actual trade size been discussed. And it is universally recommended trade sizes be of the $0.10 pip size. How many such trade components a Sonicer makes is his own business as it relates to account size.

Suppose a Sonicer has averaged 2,000 pips per week for the last 24 weeks. If those were $0.10 pips that is $200.00 a week. If those were $1.00 pips that is $2,000.00 a week. If those were $10.00 pips, that is $20,000.00 a week. No Sonicer should care how large or small the account of another is, only that they too can be successful, starting from where ever they start from, and building from there. Most traders need to build accounts before achieving accounts large enough to support them. That is what this thread is all about. Making pips and thereby building the account, not spending them. That time will come later.

A trader starting with a $10,000.00 and making my trades since the first of the year using $1.00 pips, would have averaged $2,000.00 a week over the past 24 weeks. The account would have fluctuated in value, up to over $100,000 and back down, but still over $60,000 with the most severe draw downs. Now $2,000.00 a week is $104,000.00 a year and the account is yet nowhere near the $200,000.00 you figured necessary for $53,000.00/year income! But these monies are not being taken out of the account. They are left in to build the account towards that day when it is large enough to support regular withdrawals to provide income, or augment income. That is the goal of most Sonicers, and that is what I have been demonstrating, pips earned and used for account building.

Look, if you want to be obsessed with actual dollars made, and that those dollars provide a living right off the bat, perhaps you should follow Islander's trading. I believe Islander trades in $1.00 pips and sometimes doubles up on his trades, and has a goal of $200-$250 per week. Most Sonicers are not fortunate enough to have that as their primary concern. They are more concerned with building their account so that one day they can trade large enough to provide a good income, to be withdrawn regularly from their accounts.

-tah
  • #59,096
  • Sep 15, 2013 6:36pm Sep 15, 2013 6:36pm
Well I think it Is time to change something, coz this is far from normal by any trading system!
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There is no spoon....
  • #59,097
  • Edited 7:23pm Sep 15, 2013 6:54pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting Msis125125
Well I think it Is time to change something, coz this is far from normal by any trading system! {image}
It is not abnormal for the MMs to do things to wipe out other traders. Continually pushing price, gaping it, spiking or whipsawing it; all manner of methods to wipe out other traders so the MMs can have liquidity for their own orders is not abnormal. These sonsobitches have virtually unlimited credit and a greedy nature. We know this. And we know that they do exactly these things knowing that they will be able to hurt lots of traders that themselves were greedy and traded too heavily for their accounts. That is what this is all about! Trade heavy and use SLs. That is what they want traders to do because that is how the MMs are able to screw them and get the liquidity they are after!

If you figure a way to change something that will put Sonicers in a better position to deal with these price manipulations by the MMs, then post it. But don't ever count on the MMs to stop doing this shit, because they aren't going to stop doing what works!
  • #59,098
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:22pm Sep 15, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} It is not abnormal for the MMs to do things to wipe out other traders. Continually pushing price, gaping it, spiking or whipsawing it; all manner of methods to wipe out other traders so the MMs can have liquidity for their own orders is not abnormal. These sonsobitches have virtually unlimited credit and a greedy nature. We know this. And we know that they do exactly these things knowing that they will be able to hurt lots of traders that themselves were greedy and traded too heavily for their accounts. That is what this is all about! Trade...
Challenge accepted!
There is no spoon....
  • #59,099
  • Edited 7:48pm Sep 15, 2013 7:31pm | Edited 7:48pm
Quoting Msis125125
{quote} Challenge accepted!
I'm on your side, Msis125125. You know, sometimes when things are most bleak, is when hard work and perseverance brings great solutions. The "market" is throwing everything it has at retail traders in an attempt to wipe out weak hands, so this is a pretty bleak time.

Personally, I believe PVSRA will come out of this smelling like a rose! Just has it has whenever the MMs have pulled this shit in the past since March. What we learn and re-learn, will serve well all of us who use PVSRA to qualify entries.

-tah
  • #59,100
  • Sep 15, 2013 7:42pm Sep 15, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Catcher777
Very long time still holds buy trade A/U. And also hedge A/U sell. Buy {image} Sell {image}
Very old buy trade A/U closed (added short EP #19 scout).
19 scouts avg. 300 pips = 5.700 pips * 3 accounts = 17.100 pips.

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I still hold short trade A/U. Added short EP #14 - #16.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post6947186

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