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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #346,921
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:37pm Sep 13, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting Maso
I can see lots of shorts on cable. {image} Then, it is heading up. As I said last month, it has the potential of touching above 1.72 before the end of November. Let's see what is happening with this crazy currency.
If you said it has the potential for going to 1.72, why were you adding in multiple shorts at 1.56? That's a lot of drawdown....
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,922
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:37pm Sep 13, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting Maso
I can see lots of shorts on cable. {image} Then, it is heading up. As I said last month, it has the potential of touching above 1.72 before the end of November. Let's see what is happening with this crazy currency.
Be very very careful when you use retail positions to counter trade it... very often it works very well when it is in range mode but now that we see GBPUSD trending up.... lots of big funds are actually loading up shorts, the higher it goes the more they will short the GBPUSD.....
and big funds have plenty of money to sustain drawdowns... so do becareful when this rally is over... a big drop could happen....
Fund's buy low and sell high, right now you see people selling Highs... PRECISELY because of this reason....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #346,923
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:54pm Sep 13, 2013 2:54pm
Not ignoring the 200ema confluence on the weekly.
It may very well "Taper" down to 5170 monthy support/TL retest starting next week, before the next mid October US debt ceiling debacle send Cable flying lol....


Have a great weekend everyone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,924
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:00pm Sep 13, 2013 3:00pm
Hello GBP/US

Kept thinking no way this pile off shit will get back up here

but it is. I did small shitty trades all the way an closed them as I made a few crumbs.

But shit can flow up hill an it looks like it will keep going.

Got a short 158

See what happens next week
  • #346,925
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:03pm Sep 13, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} If you said it has the potential for going to 1.72, why were you adding in multiple shorts at 1.56? That's a lot of drawdown....
I closed my short last week. Now, I'm bullish mate
  • #346,926
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:05pm Sep 13, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Be very very careful when you use retail positions to counter trade it... very often it works very well when it is in range mode but now that we see GBPUSD trending up.... lots of big funds are actually loading up shorts, the higher it goes the more they will short the GBPUSD..... and big funds have plenty of money to sustain drawdowns... so do becareful when this rally is over... a big drop could happen.... Fund's buy low and sell high, right now you see people selling Highs... PRECISELY because of this reason....
You are right. I am keeping a close eye on that.
  • #346,927
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:05pm Sep 13, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello GBP/US Kept thinking no way this pile off shit will get back up here but it is. I did small shitty trades all the way an closed them as I made a few crumbs. But shit can flow up hill an it looks like it will keep going. Got a short 158 See what happens next week
unfortunately... shit doesnt flow up hill.... gravity pulls it down....
also... the market cant go up all the way in a straight line... this action will have a reaction at some point.... and it'll look ugly for the GBP
Fair value models by Citi, and Deutsche bank are saying the GBPUSD fair value is still at around under 1.45.... but it has been for the last 2 or so years....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #346,928
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:24pm Sep 13, 2013 3:24pm
Gidday Tryant

Yeah hear you,only kicking may self.

I was taking shorts at the bottom below 150

3 months ago.

It would go a cent or two then bang,they would pull the chain

I reckon the markets trained,or trick the natives into a pattern.

Then change the pattern an screw everybody over by climbing 10 cents.

Not sure but it looks like 159 to 160 is possible

If the EUR/US is looking 13450 or higher:nerd:

Hey we will find out next week
  • #346,929
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:31pm Sep 13, 2013 3:31pm
09.13.13
Closing thoughts for the week

A lot of folks have been caught off guard by the strong performance of the British Pound lately... I am one of them
Trying to short any GBP related pair seems tantamount to stepping in front of a freight train in an attempt to stop it...

Here are some thoughts on Cable, hopefully, taking a 40,000 ft view may put things in context so we can make some money

1- She seems to have completed a classic 5 point reversal pattern, where point 5 is higher than point 3 and has broken through the supply line
2- The next "obvious" targets (supply zones) are painted on my chart; a stop on the 78.6 would make a case for a Bearish Gartley, but I think its prudent to remain aware that there is a possibility of a full-on reversal... (I don't normally care for Goldman's opinions, but they are on record in the last 24 hours, saying that they don't expect a taper announcement on Wednesday)

Either way, there seems to be an "easy" 130 pips of upside on the table, before she needs to make up her mind... and we can easily see this in the early half of next week before the fed event

Wishing you, all the best!

Cable Weekly
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p.s.: I do not subscribe to this thread (too many posts, clutters my inbox), If you would like to discuss, please reply to the post so that it shows up on my profile page!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #346,930
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:37pm Sep 13, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Be very very careful when you use retail positions to counter trade it... very often it works very well when it is in range mode but now that we see GBPUSD trending up.... lots of big funds are actually loading up shorts, the higher it goes the more they will short the GBPUSD..... and big funds have plenty of money to sustain drawdowns... so do becareful when this rally is over... a big drop could happen.... Fund's buy low and sell high, right now you see people selling Highs... PRECISELY because of this reason....
Big funds? By big do you mean like banks, hedge funds, government lol ? Any old fund can go out of business in a year or less in the speculation business. I dont think any professional trader would be sustaining any type of drawdown unless you are more of an investor. If the fund is big enough they would probably be able to have an infulence. I may be wrong but I just dont see why any average professional trader would be averaging in. Losers average losers, no matter who you are. Maybe if you are a legend and have been doing it for ever but even still I dont think it would be like 25-75pip intervals.


And how do you know this is a high level? Monthly looks pretty low,?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #346,931
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:39pm Sep 13, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} unfortunately... shit doesnt flow up hill.... gravity pulls it down.... also... the market cant go up all the way in a straight line... this action will have a reaction at some point.... and it'll look ugly for the GBP Fair value models by Citi, and Deutsche bank are saying the GBPUSD fair value is still at around under 1.45.... but it has been for the last 2 or so years....

Hi Bg, yes i believe current price is a huge gift for the bears (me included) have added every 50 pips or so from 1.569.

Next week taper possibility could be the signal for this house of cards to collapse. Patience and confidence is the name of the game right now.

Its just giving Nav a chance toget out of some of those longs he has been holding. Hope he has closed them so he can enjoy the next 4 months.
Money never sleeps...
  • #346,932
  • Edited 4:30pm Sep 13, 2013 4:24pm | Edited 4:30pm
No fractal swing created by Weekly candle close ... closing as a bullish thrust at a HH above last H following 2 x HL's on this t/f and an upside breech and close above the descending weekly trend line and the recent 5751-4811 range. This t/f is now in a classic opa uptrend as of the close. Price trades above both the 200sma and 100sma on this t/f and they are converged on each other with 100 remaining below 200. Another limited pip range this week although may feel like more price only covered 91% of the 20 week atr.

No fractal swing created by Friday's Daily candle close...closing as a bullish engulfing hammer esq candle with a longer lower than upper wick. This t/f remains in a general opa uptrend as of the close. Price like the weekly trades above both it's 200sma and 100sma, and it's 100sma remains below it's 200 too, although pointing up. Friday's daily pip range of 109 was 128% of the 20 day atr which is down to 84.

4hr remains in a general opa uptrend, price trading above both it's 200sma and 100sma with 100sma above the 200 and both pointing up. 1hr too remains in a similar opa (overall price action) state and same re sma's mentioned, at the close.

Price looks ever more over extended on subsequently higher t/f's and it feels like a serious correction is due at some point ?...However the character of this uptrend so far has been a rising channel with shallow - ish pullbacks particularly on the move up from 5427 swing low. The weekly range break may see some kind of pullback to the 5751-4811 range ?

This site ends the week with 72% of traders and 89% of lots traded - in it's trade explorer short this pairing...with 990 of the 1053 lots short currently in a loss situation ! Plenty of retailers still screaming that it can't go any higher (!) - although they have been saying that most of the way up - many trading what they think not what they see....I hope for them that price obliges !

G/L
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ex member
  • #346,933
  • Sep 13, 2013 4:48pm Sep 13, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting theDHT
09.13.13 Closing thoughts for the week A lot of folks have been caught off guard by the strong performance of the British Pound lately... I am one of them Trying to short any GBP related pair seems tantamount to stepping in front of a freight train in an attempt to stop it... Here are some thoughts on Cable, hopefully, taking a 40,000 ft view may put things in context so we can make some money 1- She seems to have completed a classic 5 point reversal pattern, where point 5 is higher than point 3 and has broken through the supply line 2- The next...
Where did you read that info about Goldman? The last contrarion signal (for me anyway ) that I read about 14 hrs ago from those crooks, Goldman said that the USD would strengthen through to at least the end of the year on the back of Fed tapering.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,934
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:08pm Sep 13, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Where did you read that info about Goldman? The last contrarion signal (for me anyway ) that I read about 14 hrs ago from those crooks, Goldman said that the USD would strengthen through to at least the end of the year on the back of Fed tapering.
Not read,
Heard about it on talking forex about an hour before the larry summers/whitehouse news broke today...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #346,935
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:11pm Sep 13, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Where did you read that info about Goldman? The last contrarion signal (for me anyway ) that I read about 14 hrs ago from those crooks, Goldman said that the USD would strengthen through to at least the end of the year on the back of Fed tapering.
Remember their call re gold back in april, and remember who was buying your exits (themselves)...
And remember abacus from 07...
This is why track records are important... Me thinks...
Just my 2 cents
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #346,936
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:37pm Sep 13, 2013 5:37pm
Looks like cable is headed to a 1.6 handle, sure as eggs is eggs.
EURUSD looks like it's headed to 1.34 at least, maybe 1.35/6.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #346,937
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:52pm Sep 13, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Remember their call re gold back in april, and remember who was buying your exits (themselves)... And remember abacus from 07... This is why track records are important... Me thinks... Just my 2 cents
What was their April Gold call?
As long as I have been in FF (2 years) I have personally observed a bank trade recommendation track record nothing short of a 100 percent failure rate.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,938
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:30pm Sep 13, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} unfortunately... shit doesnt flow up hill.... gravity pulls it down.... also... the market cant go up all the way in a straight line... this action will have a reaction at some point.... and it'll look ugly for the GBP Fair value models by Citi, and Deutsche bank are saying the GBPUSD fair value is still at around under 1.45.... but it has been for the last 2 or so years....
Check this up => http://www.fxweek.com/digital_assets...090913digi.pdf

According to most banks, fair price for GBP/USD should be 1.48
  • #346,939
  • Sep 13, 2013 11:18pm Sep 13, 2013 11:18pm
whether it's up or down, bank of England website is a good place to read more about the data. It'll tell the future of this pair a bit.
  • #346,940
  • Sep 13, 2013 11:46pm Sep 13, 2013 11:46pm
bottom line cable is kicking ass and takin' names right now. (.)
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