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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,581
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:47am Aug 21, 2013 6:47am
Quoting Hercs
Good morning Kambooj, Any updates yet? Wishing you continued success.

Sorry, Just read your post right now.

One thing from a behaviour perspective that is expected to happen if we still have a uptrend in place is a very large spike of at least 200+ pips upwards. This phenomenon is not happening and price action is creating a expanding environment at the end of impulse move.

Its still not solid evidence for a bullish signal.

If you look at the weekly chart we are within a very important action/reaction zone which in most cases it has been a sell zone. So something has to give soon for a downdraft to start.

The only good position right now is to not be in the market until some kind of a trend gets established.

Glenn Neely says that the word "Wipsaw" was probably derived out of trading in a expanding environment, which I have to agree with him very strongly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Weekly.jpg Size: 138 KB
  • #2,582
  • Aug 28, 2013 6:31am Aug 28, 2013 6:31am
EUR/USD Outlook

The EUR has been struggling to keep itself above 3300 since Aug 15th. So far the struggle has been successfull with very little opportunity for this pair to dip below 3300. The current trendlines suggest that if this behaviour is to be maintained by Friday, then chances of this pair going higher will dramatically increase. This pair is on a important trendline (T1) and at the center of another circle where its resistance is affecting the movement upwards. The surge upwards would at least take this pair to 3800 where the solid blue line T2 is located. In the past continuous hits have been made against Circle#1 when serious resistance has been encountered. If the EUR dips below 3300, chances are high that it will go as low as 3000 where the border of Circle#1 is located.

In anyhow, any possible turnaround from this point has to be quite hard and fast, otherwise we will be spiking upwards for quite a distance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,583
  • Aug 28, 2013 6:56am Aug 28, 2013 6:56am
EUR Update

Decision for price action to have its last chance of breaking above 3300 for higher grounds has to be made very quickly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #2,584
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:08am Aug 28, 2013 7:08am
EUR Update
The M1 is giving a good opportunity if you want to try a sell position, below 3320-3325 we are gonna go more down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #2,585
  • Aug 30, 2013 6:21am Aug 30, 2013 6:21am
EUR/USD Outlook

Price action needs to come to 3100 at a minimum before any major decisions are made by it to use 3100 as support or go lower
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #2,586
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:38am Sep 4, 2013 6:38am
EUR/USD Outlook

Continuing from the above diagram. We need one move upwards towards 3220-3250 for a sell opportunity,
However...

If we maintain the 3170-3190 zone and hardly go above 3200, then the current price which is right now 3166 will become a good sell zone. In that case we will just make another series of drops till 3070-3050 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 151 KB
  • #2,587
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:44am Sep 4, 2013 6:44am
...your approach reminds me so much of Gann's 'wheels within wheels' - really interesting thread. Thank you.
  • #2,588
  • Sep 4, 2013 6:48am Sep 4, 2013 6:48am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook Continuing from the above diagram. We need one move upwards towards 3220-3250 for a sell opportunity, However... If we maintain the 3170-3190 zone and hardly go above 3200, then the current price which is right now 3166 will become a good sell zone. In that case we will just make another series of drops till 3070-3050 zone. {image}
One other thing I just noticed, is that we are now -1 days from the New Moon. With the EUR/USD the New moon usually translates to a sell scenario 80% of the time. This happens usually within a +/- 1 to 2 days around the New Moon.

Look for the H4 RSI going up to around 45-50 zone before putting any sells. Right now its around 28 (RSI=13 Periods), and its still has more room to stabalize itself.

The daily RSI still needs to go down further and double dip for divergence to take place, before any major up moves can begin. So on a daily time frame we are in a sell mode.
  • #2,589
  • Sep 4, 2013 8:46am Sep 4, 2013 8:46am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook Continuing from the above diagram. We need one move upwards towards 3220-3250 for a sell opportunity, However... If we maintain the 3170-3190 zone and hardly go above 3200, then the current price which is right now 3166 will become a good sell zone. In that case we will just make another series of drops till 3070-3050 zone. {image}

very good analyze like always
looking for investors . pm me
  • #2,590
  • Sep 5, 2013 5:15am Sep 5, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook Continuing from the above diagram. We need one move upwards towards 3220-3250 for a sell opportunity, However... If we maintain the 3170-3190 zone and hardly go above 3200, then the current price which is right now 3166 will become a good sell zone. In that case we will just make another series of drops till 3070-3050 zone. {image}
Hrly double top now printing right on your predicted resistance level @3216...we'll see.
  • #2,591
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:29am Sep 5, 2013 6:29am
Quoting kbmoonshinex
{quote} very good analyze like always

Thanks and appreciate your support.
  • #2,592
  • Sep 5, 2013 6:33am Sep 5, 2013 6:33am
Quoting sidefx
{quote} Hrly double top now printing right on your predicted resistance level @3216...we'll see.

EUR/USD Outlook

The sell at the 3220 zone turned out to be a good setup, which also was when the RSI(13) hit the 49 level. Current sentiment remains a sell with a stronger drop awaiting that will make the 3100 level a resistance zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 170 KB
  • #2,593
  • Sep 5, 2013 8:59am Sep 5, 2013 8:59am
How accurate (in % terms) are your EU outlooks?
  • #2,594
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:26am Sep 6, 2013 6:26am
Quoting sidefx
How accurate (in % terms) are your EU outlooks?
I havent measured it, but my worst outlooks are usually during summer months, and thats why I stay out of trading and forecasting for some long periods such as a week or 10 days.
  • #2,595
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:27am Sep 6, 2013 6:27am
EUR/USD Outlook

A continuous but gradual downward motion will start happening until 3080 is reached, where at that point the chance of a strong drop will manifest itself. For now its still a sell until 3080 is reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #2,596
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:15am Sep 13, 2013 6:15am
EUR/USD Outlook

After about a week of activity for this pair since the last forecast, this pair is again stuck at the most important trendline on the daily chart which is the T1 line. Since its been a while that its hovering at that level since the last top at 3450, it has been able to create a base for itself at around 3260. This behaviour is reinforcing change in its decision to pursue a destination lower than 3100 for now.

It has to make another attempt at touching the lower blue trendline, T3, but it does not look like this effort will manifest itself until price action hits the median line that goes through the apex of T1/T3, which is also rougly around the dotted red straight line.

So for now the trend will be a buy at around the lows of 3300 / Highs of 3200 until 3550 or 3600 is reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #2,597
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:36am Sep 13, 2013 6:36am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook After about a week of activity for this pair since the last forecast, this pair is again stuck at the most important trendline on the daily chart which is the T1 line. Since its been a while that its hovering at that level since the last top at 3450, it has been able to create a base for itself at around 3260. This behaviour is reinforcing change in its decision to pursue a destination lower than 3100 for now. It has to make another attempt at touching the lower blue trendline, T3, but it does not look like this effort will manifest...
Thanks Kambooj, were waiting for your informed view.

Enjoy the weekend.

Best regards,
Hercs
  • #2,598
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:56am Sep 13, 2013 6:56am
Quoting Hercs
{quote} Thanks Kambooj, were waiting for your informed view. Enjoy the weekend. Best regards,

Thanks,
here is a update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #2,599
  • Sep 13, 2013 1:26pm Sep 13, 2013 1:26pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1378559853
  • #2,600
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:49pm Sep 13, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting oossaa
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1378559853

Thanks, thats a good one.

I hope that this last spike that is supposed to go to 3600 does not fail, because if it does the rebound downward will be quite hard. On the weekly time frame the trend for this pair is down, with probably the most time spent in a 1500 pip range (between 2000-3500 levels) since 2008.

So something has to give in soon, so that a nice trend will start.

If that does not happen either, then late october is usually when markets dip a bit. So we will be up until then.

Anyhow thanks for your post.
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