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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #36,861
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:42am Sep 9, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Ambar
{quote} ¿should a war take the pair north or south direction??? As regarding where the Boj starts printing seriously, I can see a big point at 97.00...

The direction cannot be predicted - at least i don't know how

on previous occasions when there was mention of missles the USD weakened and took UJ down with it. But that may not be the pattern going forward. As crisis deepens the USD should strengthen because it is the safe haven of last resort.

But we don't worry about that - if there is a trend there will be plenty of time to get in and out. But mindblowing volatility is more likely - ups and downs of 100s of pips within minutes.

The BoJ is printing all the time. They take breaks every now and again but we cannot know their schedule for sure - all we know is they want the UJ at around 100-104. But it's not there. Why? Economic dynamics inside Japan and also large players who are shorting this pair when they see the BoJ printing presses failing.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,862
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:52am Sep 9, 2013 2:52am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi sLOVEnia, if you look at the arrows projections on my chart posted earlier, i show the breakouts only after FOMC on the 19th. In the meantime UJ will keep bobbing around aimlessly like a raft in the Pacific, since if it had any intention to go somewhere, it has had plenty of opportunities to do so in the past 3 months. It is biding time between the TLs i think... even when it does breakout - it is usual for PA to reverse and head in the opposite direction, so until then I am in range trading mode with M5 charts Should the US decide it's...
Totally agree with you. No fuel so far for any side. In last few weeks PA showed just shake outs and nothing else.
But the pair is tradable on lower TFs like you have written. Wish you green ones!
  • #36,863
  • Sep 9, 2013 3:45am Sep 9, 2013 3:45am
Quoting paruski
short term usd jpy is bearish. but at 61% fib its time for bulls {image}
great analysis!
  • #36,864
  • Sep 9, 2013 5:19am Sep 9, 2013 5:19am
Quoting geomink
what do you think about this 1-2-3 high pattern in 100 area? thx {image}

will it hold?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpym15.png Size: 37 KB
Don't give up
  • #36,865
  • Edited 6:21am Sep 9, 2013 5:47am | Edited 6:21am
I am showing a current consolidation phase with about 100-115 pip movement for the 3 major JPY pairs (EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY). It is also wise to note that ALL 3 of the pairs on the 5 min charts are showing a bounce off the neck line (shown by the blue line on chart) which indicates a possible reversal into the bullish and 100.xx area. Also keep an eye on the GBP and EUR pairs as they tend to make the movements sooner than the USD pair. Given this weeks announcement tomorrow for President Obama's actions towards Syria i am giving myself a equity management as stated: (KEEP IN MIND THOUGH - if the market for the USD/JPY falls below the 99.23 i will be looking to sell and go bearish, same goes for the EUR/JPY where if it falls below the 130.87 level i will head bearish, and if the GBP/USD falls below the 155.39 level i would go bearish on that as well; BUT until that happens im bullish in the positions, Like i mentioned previously keep a keen eye on current events happening around the world particularly the USA, UK, EU, and Japan. Just over the weekend the JPY took a spike upwards without any fundamental announcements but they had won the bid for the 2020 Olympics which took the pairs up almost 100 pips in the opening of the Sunday of the asian session, so if the US decides to go to war with a "limited" attack, i am predicting a bear move for the USDJPY pair)

All Positions are LONG (BUY) for the following:

USD/JPY - Entry - 99.498
Stop - 99.18 (Risk 32 pips)
Limit - 100.20 (Reward 70 pips)

EUR/JPY - Entry - 131.224
Stop - 130.820 (Risk 40 pips)
Limit - 191.94 (Reward 72 pips)

GBP/JPY - Entry - 155.957
Stop - 155.34 (Risk 62 pips)
Limit - 156.590 (Reward 63 pips)

Let me know what you guys think and lets share some ideas

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ALLJPY.jpg Size: 356 KB
  • #36,866
  • Sep 9, 2013 6:15am Sep 9, 2013 6:15am
Oops!! I entered short earlier today, waiting for another dive.
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
  • #36,867
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:16am Sep 9, 2013 8:16am
Quoting obhutta
I am showing a current consolidation phase with about 100-115 pip movement for the 3 major JPY pairs (EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY). It is also wise to note that ALL 3 of the pairs on the 5 min charts are showing a bounce off the neck line (shown by the blue line on chart) which indicates a possible reversal into the bullish and 100.xx area. Also keep an eye on the GBP and EUR pairs as they tend to make the movements sooner than the USD pair. Given this weeks announcement tomorrow for President Obama's actions towards Syria i am giving myself a equity...
UJ is up definitely. It broke out of triangle formation, but still haven't passed through 100 yet. I think it may go down closer towards 99 before passing 100, so I'm going to wait before jumping on the train.

Buy Limit Entry @ 99.23, TP: 100.35, SL: 98.5

An alternative would be to gradually increase a buy now as price get lower towards 99.23? However not my style.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4.png Size: 40 KB
  • #36,868
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:53am Sep 9, 2013 8:53am
Crappy pair ever as usual........
Don't give up
  • #36,869
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:58am Sep 9, 2013 8:58am
extremely poor quality rising pair
  • #36,870
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:04am Sep 9, 2013 9:04am
Quoting ziyaze
{quote} UJ is up definitely. It broke out of triangle formation, but still haven't passed through 100 yet. I think it may go down closer towards 99 before passing 100, so I'm going to wait before jumping on the train. Buy Limit Entry @ 99.23, TP: 100.35, SL: 98.5 An alternative would be to gradually increase a buy now as price get lower towards 99.23? However not my style. {image}
Gap closing would be very nice. Then I'm almost sure it will had into 100.20.
But this bullish divergence on 10min tf and e/u at resistance...shity
This mofu really likes 99.5
  • #36,871
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:05am Sep 9, 2013 9:05am
People are not holding on to this thing, since that breakout formed seems like the herd is selling and taking profit huge, massive bear candles on the chart everywhere. It went right to my target before the breakout lool people must have been following me.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #36,872
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:15am Sep 9, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Rtm
People are not holding on to this thing, since that breakout formed seems like the herd is selling and taking profit huge, massive bear candles on the chart everywhere. It went right to my target before the breakout lool people must have been following me.
What is your view then?
  • #36,873
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:16am Sep 9, 2013 9:16am
Quoting tohalan
extremely poor quality rising pair
  • #36,874
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:18am Sep 9, 2013 9:18am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Gap closing would be very nice. Then I'm almost sure it will had into 100.20. But this bullish divergence on 10min tf and e/u at resistance...shity This mofu really likes 99.5
Supply at 99.55? Who's the buyer then?
  • #36,875
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:22am Sep 9, 2013 9:22am
Short @ 99.722
  • #36,876
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:27am Sep 9, 2013 9:27am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} What is your view then?

Im short Geppy and long Chunnel
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #36,877
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:42am Sep 9, 2013 9:42am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Supply at 99.55? Who's the buyer then?

with a large gap open yet......... I would know too....
Don't give up
  • #36,878
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:43am Sep 9, 2013 9:43am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Supply at 99.55? Who's the buyer then?
Are you long UJ ?
  • #36,879
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:44am Sep 9, 2013 9:44am
Quoting alam88009
{quote} Are you long UJ ?

yes
  • #36,880
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:48am Sep 9, 2013 9:48am
Quoting ziyaze
{quote} yes

ok wish me luck
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