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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #36,841
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:43pm Sep 8, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi V I am fine. Thanks for asking I see the divergence too - particularly with the macd histogram. We'ss see what happens. I will either buy from lower down or higher up. The idea is to stay away from all the play in between OLu

Olu,

good idea. Of course, Tokio session is going to react to the NFP disappointment when session opens in 17 mins
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,842
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:44pm Sep 8, 2013 6:44pm
I agree. If it clears 100.20 resisance 101 is next stop.. Easiest 100+ pips ever.
  • #36,843
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:56pm Sep 8, 2013 6:56pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Ambar, it is possible for gaps not to be closed, but the thing is I am seeing people refer to the UJ and EJ PA this Asia morning as a "gap" but my platform shows it as fully traded up to current levels from 99.11. M1 tf shows there were quite a few corrections traded up to 99.80
My platform shows that number more or less. 99.11. I see a gap about 55-60 PIPS.
  • #36,844
  • Edited 7:34pm Sep 8, 2013 7:21pm | Edited 7:34pm
Quoting borngreat007
I agree. If it clears 100.20 resisance 101 is next stop.. Easiest 100+ pips ever.
Short 104. Maybe the easiest 100 pips but going south
  • #36,845
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:25pm Sep 8, 2013 7:25pm
Looks like it wants to close the gap. Closely watching CHF/JPY, USD/CHF, and NI225 for confirmation of moves.
  • #36,846
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:57pm Sep 8, 2013 7:57pm
Not bad data from Japan. Closed long position with a NICE profit and went short... 20 pips already on the short position..
  • #36,847
  • Sep 8, 2013 9:44pm Sep 8, 2013 9:44pm
Well my order for another lot was filled at 99.50. Lets see what this bad boy does.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #36,848
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:48pm Sep 8, 2013 10:48pm
are you guys doing analysis here or just firing rounds in the air?

what i mean to say is something you already know: nobody cares where you went long or if you exited with 1 or 1000pips unless they have a share in the profits. Now if you post your reason for entering a position BEFORE you do and show your analytical thinking then everyone learns and benefits.

post your analysis, work together and find high probability entries. Then hit the market with everything you've got.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,849
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:56pm Sep 8, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Well my order for another lot was filled at 99.50. Lets see what this bad boy does.

99.50 is the BoJ "print" level. below there they apply easing until the market shorts it to 99.50 or lower and then they print again. Look at h1 for what happens at this level
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,850
  • Sep 8, 2013 11:18pm Sep 8, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} 99.50 is the BoJ "print" level. below there they apply easing until the market shorts it to 99.50 or lower and then they print again. Look at h1 for what happens at this level

you can use this to your advantage by trading "towards" this level. if PA is above, short to 99.50 (or wherever it drops to). If PA goes below 99.50, long to 99.50 (or higher if PA runs). Use your indicators to identify reversals toward 99.50. set your SL just outside the range and size according to your risk/reward rule.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,851
  • Sep 9, 2013 12:33am Sep 9, 2013 12:33am
Gap+ shooting star. I suppose before we have more upside action, we will have to cover the gap first. Friday's D1 chart did bounce off the 100 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Small sell trade on
  • #36,852
  • Sep 9, 2013 12:47am Sep 9, 2013 12:47am
Quoting Danny Maina
Gap+ shooting star. I suppose before we have more upside action, we will have to cover the gap first. Friday's D1 chart did bounce off the 100 level {image} Small sell trade on

hi Danny! hope you're well.

I've noticed 2 significant levels in the H3 chart. Both 98.75 and 99.50 have been in play since the April start to BoJ QE and they are seeing frequent PA reversal and/or traversal. It is my interpretation that the BoJ has a mechanism at work that pulls price up to 99.50 at opportune times. It's as if they want the market to accept a bullish option as the only option, but they preferably want the market to take matters beyond 100.00.

99.50 is at the dashed orange horizontal line

However, the market and UJ want something else: the bluish haze at 98.75 level shows this is where the market is pulling price to after each wave down and each wave up. It is the 50% Fib of wave A from the May top. This also happens to be the level at which the TLs of the unfolding triangle make an apex. The exact nature of the triangle is unknown and it may keep winding for a while. Upon breakout we'd expect it to launch into wave 5 to the upside, but this is not compulsory - it can go south in total defiance of market and BoJ expectations. For now wave E to the downside is a reasonable expectation - once PA is yanked away from 99.50

http://ubuntuone.com/5wG2su26aTySH0jrJb5mfU
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,853
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:09am Sep 9, 2013 1:09am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Danny! hope you're well. I've noticed 2 significant levels in the H3 chart. Both 98.75 and 99.50 have been in play since the April start to BoJ QE and they are seeing frequent PA reversal and/or traversal. It is my interpretation that the BoJ has a mechanism at work that pulls price up to 99.50 at opportune times. It's as if they want the market to accept a bullish option as the only option, but they preferably want the market to take matters beyond 100.00. 99.50 is at the dashed orange horizontal line However, the market and UJ want...

Now we just wait en see how this plays out.
  • #36,854
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:12am Sep 9, 2013 1:12am
I hope 99.80/95 will hold.
  • #36,855
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:54am Sep 9, 2013 1:54am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Danny! hope you're well. I've noticed 2 significant levels in the H3 chart. Both 98.75 and 99.50 have been in play since the April start to BoJ QE and they are seeing frequent PA reversal and/or traversal. It is my interpretation that the BoJ has a mechanism at work that pulls price up to 99.50 at opportune times. It's as if they want the market to accept a bullish option as the only option, but they preferably want the market to take matters beyond 100.00. 99.50 is at the dashed orange horizontal line However, the market and UJ want...
Very true but they must fill the gap first if north is the direction...
Opportunity for long will be around 99.05 or 98.60, depends on PA...lets wait and see.
  • #36,856
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:58am Sep 9, 2013 1:58am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Very true but they must fill the gap first if north is the direction... Opportunity for long will be around 99.05 or 98.60, depends on PA...lets wait and see.
Some demand around 99.50...
  • #36,857
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:06am Sep 9, 2013 2:06am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Some demand around 99.50...
Looks like weak demand and on 1min TF supply is seen...
  • #36,858
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:13am Sep 9, 2013 2:13am
Quoting sLOVEnia
{quote} Very true but they must fill the gap first if north is the direction... Opportunity for long will be around 99.05 or 98.60, depends on PA...lets wait and see.

hi sLOVEnia,

if you look at the arrows projections on my chart posted earlier, i show the breakouts only after FOMC on the 19th. In the meantime UJ will keep bobbing around aimlessly like a raft in the Pacific, since if it had any intention to go somewhere, it has had plenty of opportunities to do so in the past 3 months. It is biding time between the TLs i think... even when it does breakout - it is usual for PA to reverse and head in the opposite direction, so until then I am in range trading mode with M5 charts

Should the US decide it's time to take on Russia and China today, then an immediate breakout is almost guaranteed don't you think?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #36,859
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:30am Sep 9, 2013 2:30am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi sLOVEnia, if you look at the arrows projections on my chart posted earlier, i show the breakouts only after FOMC on the 19th. In the meantime UJ will keep bobbing around aimlessly like a raft in the Pacific, since if it had any intention to go somewhere, it has had plenty of opportunities to do so in the past 3 months. It is biding time between the TLs i think... even when it does breakout - it is usual for PA to reverse and head in the opposite direction, so until then I am in range trading mode with M5 charts Should the US decide it's...
¿should a war take the pair north or south direction???
As regarding where the Boj starts printing seriously, I can see a big point at 97.00...
  • #36,860
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:41am Sep 9, 2013 2:41am
what do you think about this 1-2-3 high pattern in 100 area?

thx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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