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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #346,541
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:55am Sep 6, 2013 9:55am
If todays high ( 1.5680 ) remains unbreached for the rest of todays trading, then ill be looking to long cable again on monday at a nice price. target should be clearer by monday
  • #346,542
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:59am Sep 6, 2013 9:59am
Quoting Ambar
{quote} Don't get annoyed but the problem of your system is that you can we waiting for a lot of time one area and it never touch it. Don't you move a muscle then??? Imagine that never touch 1,57. Imagine that never touch 1,34. Imagine that in the downward movement,your areas are jump over. ¿Don't you realize that maybe the big banks have the same numbers you have??
Good day to you, Ambar

I will not get annoyed. It is a good comment. There are many other parts. I prefer longer period trading. The zones I'm showing I draw by hand and these are just generally "better" places to enter the market. If I have to wait - I wait. No problem. Price move through these all the time. It fits my personality to trade this way and it gives me a lot of free time to live a life outside of staring at the charts all day.

I'm sure there are far better ways to trade. But for me, personally, I prefer this.

As said before, I'm not a good trader. Just trying to make a few on the side.

All the best to you
  • #346,543
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:01am Sep 6, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Makavell
If todays high ( 1.5680 ) remains unbreached for the rest of todays trading, then ill be looking to long cable again on monday at a nice price. target should be clearer by monday
it's almost the end of trading days for euro region, i think the move to be continued next week.. it's pretty risky to leave positions open in the weekend when your entry price is very close to the closing price.. imho.. but it's your trade, your choice mate..
  • #346,544
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:12am Sep 6, 2013 10:12am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} it's almost the end of trading days for euro region, i think the move to be continued next week.. it's pretty risky to leave positions open in the weekend when your entry price is very close to the closing price.. imho.. but it's your trade, your choice mate..
When I say 'long cable again' I actually meant a totally new position. Ive already taken profit on yesterdays long from 1.5593 and 72 at 1.5676 today. Thanks for the concern all the-same.
  • #346,545
  • Sep 6, 2013 1:26pm Sep 6, 2013 1:26pm
anyone know what happened with wormboy? He had some good analysis.
  • #346,546
  • Sep 6, 2013 2:12pm Sep 6, 2013 2:12pm
Watching Cable for short entry.Key area of interest to me is 78.6 56.50
Scott Carney's rule if price does not violate 78.6 then very high probability it will turn around.
Notice enormous rejecting dogi
From his writing.
"The 0.786 retracement is the square root of the 0.618. The 0.786
retracement is the next critical area to examine, after the 0.618 has been
clearly violated. The 0.786 is a vital Fibonacci number because it is often
the “last chance reversal area” before retesting the original price point. Price
action that does not reverse from the 0.786 usually will retest, and often
break past the original starting point. Therefore, 0.786 failures are
significant because the stop loss limit will be clearly defined by the original
starting point and relatively small in comparison to the potential reversal.
The 0.786 retracement is fairly unknown in the industry, although I
believe that more technicians are becoming aware of its significance. In my
opinion, it is a crucial Fibonacci number, since it is one of the last harmonic
ratios before retesting a trend’s prior high or low and it can provide a clear
indication of the future direction based upon the price action at the number."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #346,547
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:09pm Sep 6, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting dexter393
anyone know what happened with wormboy? He had some good analysis.

he is still around trading but i suppose he simply to busy or trading at just a large scale, posting causes a distraction
  • #346,548
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:27pm Sep 6, 2013 4:27pm
The Weekly candle closes bullishly and is an upside follow thru on the previous weekly, a hammer-esq type candle. A fractal HL swing at 5427 created by the weekly candle close and the t/f remains in a 5716-4811 immediate range with recent signs of strength with 2 x fractal HL's and a H off the 4811 LL,..closing near the top of the range. Weekly pip range 9 pips less than last week at 175 - this just 62% of 20 week atr. 100 sma remains below the 200sma on this t/f and it is this and the descending trend line where Friday's post NFP and daily hi of 5681 encountered supply.

The Daily candle closes bullishly it's body engulfing Thursday's candle body, although the candle has a longer upper than lower wick which was the case with Thursday's daily candle too.. there being no upside follow thru on the U.s NFP knee-jerk reaction. No fractal swing created by it's close and the t/f remains in a general opa uptrend. 100sma remains below the 200sma on this t/f but pointing up and price closes above both. 136% of the 85pip 20 day atr is what ground price covered on Friday.

4hr remains in a general opa uptrend, it's 100sma above it's 200sma with price above both.

Are the Daily H&S pattern spotters still excited by it's possibility ?

NB: opa = overall price action
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ex member
  • #346,549
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:50pm Sep 6, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Davit
Watching Cable for short entry.Key area of interest to me is 78.6 56.50 Scott Carney's rule if price does not violate 78.6 then very high probability it will turn around. Notice enormous rejecting dogi From his writing. "The 0.786 retracement is the square root of the 0.618. The 0.786 retracement is the next critical area to examine, after the 0.618 has been clearly violated. The 0.786 is a vital Fibonacci number because it is often the “last chance reversal area” before retesting the original price point. Price action that does not reverse from...
¿wich point or price would avoid you to short?? If the price violate crearly the 56.50 area???
  • #346,550
  • Edited 8:04pm Sep 6, 2013 7:38pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Potential break-out with the dollar struck in small yearly ranges since 2011 while making descending M/T swing highs since last July.. combined with the seasonal dollar weakness, I wouldn't be surprise to see a replay of the 2007 Q3~Q4 scenario..
GBPUSD vs USDCHF vs GBPCHF: {image}
Another classic EUR EURGBP GBP lead/lag line dance unfolding..
GBP M/T business..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPUSD Monthly multi-year Lotus Compression chart..


cdndollar| 38 hr ago
http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ar294966_2.gif
Inter-market dynamics setting up to repeat the July run with Euro level shifted up here @ the 1.31 zone instead of 1.2750..
  • #346,551
  • Sep 7, 2013 9:00am Sep 7, 2013 9:00am
My analysis above refers.

Looking closer in to the 1hr...this t/f remains in a general opa uptrend but there was no follow thru on Friday's immediate post NFP hi of 5681, Price remains above it's 100sma on this t/f which like 4hr is above it's 200sma. The pullback lo (5613) from Friday's 5681 hi found some demand at a previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone (prev resistance) and price closed somewhere between there and the Hi....5min shows this.

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #346,552
  • Sep 7, 2013 11:12am Sep 7, 2013 11:12am
Quoting Ambar
{quote} ¿wich point or price would avoid you to short?? If the price violate crearly the 56.50 area???

Hi Amber
Its on the chart and also quote from Scott Carney
78.6 fib being the last chance for price to retreat which is 5650-55 area
Does not mean if it goes 5680 and wont drop to 55 again.It could but statistically very high probability when price violates 78.6 then most likely it will overtake original point of measurement. If that happens next important "stop" is fib 127 extension.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #346,553
  • Sep 7, 2013 2:17pm Sep 7, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Amber Its on the chart and also quote from Scott Carney 78.6 fib being the last chance for price to retreat which is 5650-55 area Does not mean if it goes 5680 and wont drop to 55 again.It could but statistically very high probability when price violates 78.6 then most likely it will overtake original point of measurement. If that happens next important "stop" is fib 127 extension.
Hi Davit,

I was watching 886. Best of luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh496.jpg Size: 201 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #346,554
  • Sep 8, 2013 12:50am Sep 8, 2013 12:50am
Quoting bbakker
{quote} The middle pink demand area is actually a reaction to the bullish engulfing demand area to the left of it created at the start of the week, so technically the demand area is lower that includes week open/pivot. Best demand/supply areas are created by engulfing patterns. If you think you see a demand/supply area, look left to see if it was a reaction to another demand/supply area. Trade well and have a great weekend.
Absolutely agree with you...

Have a great weekend to you. mate
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #346,555
  • Sep 8, 2013 12:54am Sep 8, 2013 12:54am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, A-spec Thank you kind sir All cleared. Trade well
Ehm...

At FRIDAY is Good Day for you
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #346,556
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:00am Sep 8, 2013 5:00am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Davit, I was watching 886. Best of luck. {image}
Hi Scott,

This the Correct Ones...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-08_Cable H4 - Butterfly Projection.jpg Size: 166 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #346,557
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:08am Sep 8, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Ehm... At FRIDAY is Good Day for you
Sir Tsar,

Thank you for the moral support provided. Appreciated

All the best to you
  • #346,558
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:41am Sep 8, 2013 5:41am
Good day,

As mentioned before - we are at the threshold of entering an early sell area again. Various resistances at play at the current level, but I would like to see what the plans are before a trade decision is made.I would ideally look to start shorting only from higher levels. Still think we will be going for 1.5690 and 1.5700 - but we need to find support first on the 1.5628-1.5630 level to build a base to attack higher. A rejection here can take is right down to 1.5485 again and even further down to 1.5402.

The outer bands are normally quite high probability places to look for exhaustion, but price may overshoot substantially before coming back. Therefor managing entries and lot size becomes extremely important.

Waiting for new data to flow in any day now. This may then clarify the charts a little more.

Until such time - opportunities are sought on other pairs.

Trade well

Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #346,559
  • Sep 8, 2013 8:42am Sep 8, 2013 8:42am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir Tsar, Thank you for the moral support provided. Appreciated All the best to you
That's a friends are for...
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #346,560
  • Sep 8, 2013 9:56am Sep 8, 2013 9:56am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Hi Scott, This the Correct Ones... {image}


Hi Tsar. And a shout to TauTrader too, like your guys style and attitude.

All the best.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
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