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  • #830,941
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:09pm Aug 31, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} no numbers, "sentiment" rather.
In what way sentimental?

any evidence?
  • #830,942
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:10pm Aug 31, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} In what way sentimental? any evidence?
evidence? I´m not a cop.
  • #830,943
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:11pm Aug 31, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} evidence? I´m not a cop.
No, but it is good for someone to question your view so you yourself can be confident in it. If you cannot show any evidence for the sentiment view - why should you believe that it is cheap.
  • #830,944
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:15pm Aug 31, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting Starry
Time to turn bearish i guess on the eurusd? looks like thats the consensus maybe? anyways, heres my prediction! ~1.27 {image}
I love your charts .​
Per aspera ad astra
  • #830,945
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:15pm Aug 31, 2013 4:15pm
Will be interesting to see where the opening price will be on Sunday. LL was created, so maybe retrace time and then a continuation as we approach the 9th. What do you guys think?
  • #830,946
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:18pm Aug 31, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} evidence? I´m not a cop.
guilty as charged
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #830,947
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:19pm Aug 31, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} No, but it is good for someone to question your view so you yourself can be confident in it. If you cannot show any evidence for the sentiment view - why should you believe that it is cheap.
basically: ez is bottoming, fear of a war is overblown. september taper isn´t a done deal yet, though I have to watch fridays nfp for further clues and even if - they´ll just lift the foot off the gas pedal a litttle. i´m not betting against the euro so easily. it´s too resilient.
  • #830,948
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:20pm Aug 31, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} basically: ez is bottoming, fear of a war is overblown. september taper isn´t a done deal yet, though I have to watch fridays nfp for further clues and even if - they´ll just lift the foot of the gas pedal a litttle. i´m not betting against the euro so easily. it´s too resilient.
There we go, While I may not agree with all the points here, its much better to provide some rational to saying the EUR looks cheap for everyones sake.

  • #830,949
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:21pm Aug 31, 2013 4:21pm
Attachment

maybe something like this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug31.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #830,950
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:23pm Aug 31, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} There we go, While I may not agree with all the points here, its much better to provide some rational to saying the EUR looks cheap for everyones sake.
sometimes i´m just too lazy to spell it all out
  • #830,951
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:27pm Aug 31, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} guilty as charged
i was at a mcdonalds in germany recently, and there was a sign saying they would gladly accept dollars but they quoted €/$= 1.40. B*stards
  • #830,952
  • Aug 31, 2013 5:29pm Aug 31, 2013 5:29pm
DailyFX

Gold grafic
hello everyone here I leave some graphs to reach a conclusion on who is to show the truth in candles
Graphical-ademiral market, ProRealTime, IGMARKETS, DAILYFX

if we look at the graph and different DailyFX candles are different.

hugs
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: PROREALTIME.png Size: 33 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: DAILY FX.png Size: 412 KB
  • #830,953
  • Aug 31, 2013 5:38pm Aug 31, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} LL on daily mango. weekly not looking good at all for bulls from where i'm sitting. what are your thoughts bro?
Still the same game of support and resistance.

When support has been broken, it becomes resistance. When resistance is broken, it becomes support.

The significance of both January 1, 2013, May 1, 2013 and what will now be the first trading day of the fall session, shows the yearly supported range.

If you study session trading or have seen any of my previous charts on the different session, you will appreciate the significance of daily roll over, or daily open for the 3 major sessions as applied to EUR/USD. TK, London and NY. When price is above the daily roll for these sessions, it proves to be support and if below, proves to be resistance. Taking this simple idea into consideration, if we hold above yearly open, just like any other candle on any other time frame, it proves to be support, which is where we seem to be at current.

Price moved above yearly open during the summer session and is now testing this candle open. Taking all things into consideration, do we assume that support will hold and that this significant price holds? Do we try to catch falling knives?

Fuck No!

What we do is appreciate that we have moved above yearly open, is testing it and if support holds, we continue to buy into the 2013 Christmas season.

If support fails, we wait for this yearly open to be tested as resistance on the buy side and if rejected and sell into the new year.

It's another candle.

Tripping the quickies, significance of this is really not that substantial, but if we use this crystal ball into the future for those that look and trade off of the longer charts, we could just spend the rest of the year with the thread denizens screaming, "BUY THE DIPS".

Meh....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #830,954
  • Aug 31, 2013 7:57pm Aug 31, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Morning son().. where is Euro heading fundamentally as shown in this Chart? Thx..
a big hint was the past tense nature of my post, but I can annotate a yearly to show why the moves occurred(fundamentally) and what is likely in the future if that is what you want?
  • #830,955
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:32pm Aug 31, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Hope you're having a fine UK morning son.. since we can't trade the past, so show me the future.. remember, you're talking about the "longer term fundamentals"..
yeah it is nice and early, but I woke up at 13:30 yesterday so it only feels like mid evening.

Now since all the fundamental factors that one considers for FX are purely based on interest rates differentials, and unless in crisis mode (2008/9 and 2011) the EUR doesn't diverge from the pure fundamental value,

below consider a monthly chart (i know its not yearly but it shows more detail) and the base interest rate differential.

Now we all know why and how this affects the FX rate, but looking ahead, how is this going to change due to fundamentals.

US is growing, EZ is not.

US unemployment is improving, EZ is not.

Inflation both similar to be honest.

Trade balance will have a negligable effect in coming 5-10yrs.

All macro indicators see US growth > EZ growth

I'm not gonna get charts of these, they can be found anywhere and everyone knows this anyway

So, Macro101. US interest rates are going to be raised first and likely at a faster rate.

This can be seen through the second graph, just a simple STIR implied future interest rate

Now forgive my paint skills for the next part , but if we concede that Interest rates are 95% of the reason for FX moves (which they undeniably are) we can track out where the fundamentals see us heading. And frankly it is not much, fair value in 2016 will be around 1.15/1.20

So there you go
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: R diffs.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: STIR diffs.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR and R diffs.png Size: 50 KB
  • #830,956
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:46pm Aug 31, 2013 8:46pm
I feel I should add this chart, weekly timeframe

It shows once again base rate differentials, but as we know they are unresponsive in the short term so I also added the 2Yr spread in green (which tracks perfectly, Furthermore I have included the 2yr-Base rate spread for both DE and US below in histograms to show divergences are small and account for the volatility around the purple line. That should be visibly clear.

Going forward one could assume about a +/- 75 bps spread around the target and so you would get an updated EUR monthly chart with upper and lower bounds assuming historical volatility was about right.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR and R diffs 2.png Size: 50 KB
  • #830,957
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:57pm Aug 31, 2013 8:57pm
Here's the regression, 68bps diff not 75, but there is a lot of vol in this, standard regression deviations shown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #830,958
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:18pm Aug 31, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} ... Now forgive my paint skills for the next part , but if we concede that Interest rates are 95% of the reason for FX moves (which they undeniably are) we can track out where the fundamentals see us heading. And frankly it is not much, fair value in 2016 will be around 1.15/1.20 So there you go {image} {image} {image}
Quoting JeremyWS
... so I also added the 2Yr spread in green (which tracks perfectly, Furthermore ... That should be visibly clear. Going forward one could assume about a +/- 75 bps spread around the target and so you would get an updated EUR monthly chart with upper and lower bounds assuming historical volatility was about right. {image} {image}
Thank you for the feedbacks.. a nice FX diversion away from the miserable Sunday morning here.. You're showing good fundie skills & great maturity for a 17 year old dipping you toes into this cesspool after 3 years..

That being said, I am assuming you trades are much shorter time span from what you had shown in your posts so far.. however, just in case you're positioned in accord with your L/T views, & if we also assume all present & future assumptions being equal, I hope you have contingency plans for my annotated scenario in your charts..

btw, we hadn't close yearly below 1.30 since 2005, and the spike down to 1.18 was over 3 years ago.. so I can assume it'll take some kind of black swan event other then interest rate differentials & 2Yr spread for another probe down to your 1.15/1.20 fair value in 2016..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly QEUR-20130901-Jeremy annotated.png Size: 122 KB

Got to go.. enjoy your day..
  • #830,959
  • Sep 1, 2013 12:19am Sep 1, 2013 12:19am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} There are problems, and even though Singapore have a lot of debt, they have impressive growth so it is less of a problem, also a lot of the money has been used in worthwhile infrastructure programs which are long term good.
Thats the main issue.. most of the growth is imported.. using a large influx of foreigners to avoid the subprime has lead to housing prices doubling to record highs. Being so small there is only that much it can build. Now that the govt is turning towards the populist direction, the model is not sustainable in the long run..
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #830,960
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:32am Sep 1, 2013 5:32am
Quoting shaan295
Your Comments Please ! {image}
always keep ur chart simple that way and ur chance of consistency is guaranteed...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
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