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  • #830,921
  • Aug 31, 2013 9:15am Aug 31, 2013 9:15am
Quoting testing3000
{quote} OMG!!!
what happened ?
  • #830,922
  • Aug 31, 2013 9:30am Aug 31, 2013 9:30am
Quoting shaan295
Your Comments Please ! {image}
Thats neat they way you had put monthly and weekly in same chart..
  • #830,923
  • Aug 31, 2013 9:36am Aug 31, 2013 9:36am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} for sure there are others not just including France, UK and japan but there are places that are stronger, Australia/Singapore/norway/russia etc etc. The BRIC are roughly Brazil - 45% Russia - 12% India - 60% China - 27% on average much lower than the DM's and this is good, the recent problems are transitory and the EM world is still a good investment - just needs time for asset prices to cool off as the hot money leaves, but they're in decent shape as a whole
I think for many emerging conutries, indices are discounting a strong economic slowdown, but what worries most is the immaturity in dealing with the first true crisis after the economic boom.
  • #830,924
  • Aug 31, 2013 9:46am Aug 31, 2013 9:46am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} for sure there are others not just including France, UK and japan but there are places that are stronger, Australia/Singapore/norway/russia etc etc. The BRIC are roughly Brazil - 45% Russia - 12% India - 60% China - 27% on average much lower than the DM's and this is good, the recent problems are transitory and the EM world is still a good investment - just needs time for asset prices to cool off as the hot money leaves, but they're in decent shape as a whole

I'm not exactly sure if Singapore has a strong position. It's economy is currently being propped up by hot money from all over the world.. the public debt is comes from loaning people's money indirectly by 2 means, first by having the pension fund buy bonds from the govt and having the people pay "market" rate for public housing... this amounts to roughly 600 billion which is then used by Temasek Holdings or GIC (yes they are 2 separate investment vehicles each managing about 300 billion) to invest. The companies they heavily invest in are mostly local companies and recently Temasek Holdings appear to have gained the reputation of buying high selling low(Merrill Lynch, Bank of A, RBS, Repsol).. I dont have a background in fianance or economics so i dont know what it means exactly but this stack of cards look awfully like subprime...
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #830,925
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:05am Aug 31, 2013 10:05am
Quoting elisab
{quote} I think for many emerging conutries, indices are discounting a strong economic slowdown, but what worries most is the immaturity in dealing with the first true crisis after the economic boom.
I think Brazil have acted swiftly opening up swap lines and guarantees to sell USD's. Haven't heard anything from indonesia so they may face troubles and India have put forward some measures regarding oil etc.

However it is still early days, this mini crisis will probably stay around for the rest of the year so time will tell.
  • #830,926
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:08am Aug 31, 2013 10:08am
Quoting flam
{quote} I'm not exactly sure if Singapore has a strong position. It's economy is currently being propped up by hot money from all over the world.. the public debt is comes from loaning people's money indirectly by 2 means, first by having the pension fund buy bonds from the govt and having the people pay "market" rate for public housing... this amounts to roughly 600 billion which is then used by Temasek Holdings or GIC (yes they are 2 separate investment vehicles each managing about 300 billion) to invest. The companies they heavily invest in...
There are problems, and even though Singapore have a lot of debt, they have impressive growth so it is less of a problem, also a lot of the money has been used in worthwhile infrastructure programs which are long term good.
  • #830,927
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:26am Aug 31, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Avir
Oh carp... not trying to disturb any ones trading but just sharing, this time is different let see if US go alone... while i am writing some squawk saying Tuesday is the day US will strike :! {image}
Here's some good old humor (a spoof) on this reoccurring theme.

From JOHN CLEESE

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Syria and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from "Pissed Off" to "Let's get the Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France 's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to "Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides."

The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to "Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbour" and "Lose."

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels ..

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to "She'll be right, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is cancelled." So far no situation has ever warranted use of the last final escalation level.

Regards,
John Cleese ,
British writer, actor and tall person

And as a final thought - Greece is collapsing, the Iranians are getting aggressive, and Rome is in disarray. Welcome back to 430 BC.

Life is too short...
  • #830,928
  • Aug 31, 2013 11:04am Aug 31, 2013 11:04am
Time to turn bearish i guess on the eurusd? looks like thats the consensus maybe? anyways, heres my prediction! ~1.27

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #830,929
  • Aug 31, 2013 12:58pm Aug 31, 2013 12:58pm
Obama seeking congress to decide whether or not to attack syria is a huge curve-ball, very unexpected by the markets, heads up in Oil, gold and the USD on the open tomorrow
  • #830,930
  • Aug 31, 2013 1:26pm Aug 31, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Obama seeking congress to decide whether or not to attack syria is a huge curve-ball, very unexpected by the markets, heads up in Oil, gold and the USD on the open tomorrow
indeed

but the markets are far less fundamental driven than people think

for example, the long in USDJPY was easy to see on the monthly charts,
before the fundamentals in the yen created panic selling.

once the "panic" repositioning takes place, its straight back to the technicals.


i doubt the markets are just going to dump everything and buy the USD in expectation of a FED tapering and Syria not happening
however if this move does play out, the technical are already lined up for it regardless...

FED tapering + Syria? Never going to happen.. unless Syria actually ends up being a 2 or 3 day deal.. (HIGHLY UNLIKELY)

September will be the most interesting month of my short trading career, I think.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #830,931
  • Aug 31, 2013 1:45pm Aug 31, 2013 1:45pm
the market will do what it needs to do technically, irrelevant of regional conflicts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #830,932
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:11pm Aug 31, 2013 2:11pm
The August vacations are coming to a close so we should see a little more activity. I ended the month with a 22% increase which is disappointing since I let so many opportunities slide past me. September's a new month where we can begin again.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #830,933
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:39pm Aug 31, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} indeed but the markets are far less fundamental driven than people think for example, the long in USDJPY was easy to see on the monthly charts, before the fundamentals in the yen created panic selling. once the "panic" repositioning takes place, its straight back to the technicals. i doubt the markets are just going to dump everything and buy the USD in expectation of a FED tapering and Syria not happening however if this move does play out, the technical are already lined up for it regardless... FED tapering + Syria? Never going to happen.....
Have to disagree that technicals are more important that fundamentals. Sometimes there is a nice coincidence between the two but for sure, longer term moves are only fundamentally based - there is no debate regarding this from anyone.

Short term moves can use technicals but once you get to looking at weekly charts - its only fundamentals.
  • #830,934
  • Aug 31, 2013 3:20pm Aug 31, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Have to disagree that technicals are more important that fundamentals. Sometimes there is a nice coincidence between the two but for sure, longer term moves are only fundamentally based - there is no debate regarding this from anyone. Short term moves can use technicals but once you get to looking at weekly charts - its only fundamentals.
have a voucher man, if I can only figure out how to give it with this new version
  • #830,935
  • Aug 31, 2013 3:41pm Aug 31, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Starry
Time to turn bearish i guess on the eurusd? looks like thats the consensus maybe? anyways, heres my prediction! ~1.27 {image}
Yes, i would put a SL of 80pips and a TP of 300..
  • #830,936
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:01pm Aug 31, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting Starry
Time to turn bearish i guess on the eurusd? looks like thats the consensus maybe? anyways, heres my prediction! ~1.27 {image}
"short" has been the consensus in this room for almost 2 months now and most got burnt over and over. be cautious going with the majority. i think € is cheap at these levels, but it´s your money in the end.
  • #830,937
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:03pm Aug 31, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} "short" has been the consensus in this room for almost 2 months now and most got burnt over and over. be cautious going with the majority. i think € is cheap at these levels, but it´s your money in the end.
cheap in what way?

is this a quantitative or qualitative statement?
  • #830,938
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:05pm Aug 31, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} cheap in what way? is this a quantitative or qualitative statement?
i dont know what you mean but since I´m no quant I guess it is the latter.
  • #830,939
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:07pm Aug 31, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} i dont know what you mean but since I´m no quant I guess it is the latter.
as in, do you have numbers to back up your view as to why it is "cheap" or is it more of a judgement statement.
  • #830,940
  • Aug 31, 2013 4:08pm Aug 31, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} as in, do you have numbers to back up your view as to why it is "cheap" or is it more of a judgement statement.
no numbers, "sentiment" rather.
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