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  • #830,901
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:40pm Aug 30, 2013 3:40pm
also, EURs late week sell-off brings it down to where the vols (purple and inverted) see it priced. Vols have seen this weeks drop coming for ages. Easy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR vols.png Size: 132 KB
  • #830,902
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:41pm Aug 30, 2013 3:41pm
Risk reversals (broad view of Optionality risk) see the EUR back to 1.27/28 lows.
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  • #830,903
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:43pm Aug 30, 2013 3:43pm
2-Yr yield diffs at fair value for EUR - note how the diffs dropped fast just before EUR came down...
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2yr vs EUR.png Size: 168 KB
  • #830,904
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:43pm Aug 30, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} 2500 tonnes of water in a 50m pool, 400 tonnes isn't that much, but it still isn't an ideal scenario to be in for them.
yeah, but on a daily basis it's a lot of storage. You can't just cleanse the water...
  • #830,905
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:45pm Aug 30, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} As strange as it sounds, but what are the other options? Even if the tanks have to be maintained forever... the salt-water surely isn't the most ideal environment, but if the maintenance is a necessity, it shouldn't be unmanageable for humankind. On the other hand, 400 tons are huge. We probably better hurry to find another planet to destroy.

the figure may be off.. would u want to eat fish from nearby. another industry hurt.. now what are the energy affects.. who will afford to pay for it. i dont see anything positive for them
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #830,906
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:45pm Aug 30, 2013 3:45pm
EUR equity model (relative performance between EU and US equity), a little under but tracking nicely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Equity EUR.png Size: 127 KB
  • #830,907
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:52pm Aug 30, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} 2500 tonnes of water in a 50m pool, 400 tonnes isn't that much, but it still isn't an ideal scenario to be in for them.

dilution is a fine thing. are the particles water soluble? drink up, the odds are with u?.. drink 8 more tomorrow.. drink it then piss it out for the next guy and his 8..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #830,908
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:54pm Aug 30, 2013 3:54pm
have a good one.. gone
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #830,909
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:20pm Aug 30, 2013 5:20pm
U.S. interest rates are too high, the dollar is weak...no problem, a new war and every speculative phenomenon that is damaging the U.S. economy quickly returns.
  • #830,910
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:22pm Aug 30, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} There is no doubt there has been substantial inward flows in EM and the unwind at the moment is severe and volatile. And While I don't see Italian default likely while they are in the Eurozone, but they need an average 3% GDP growth for the next 20 years to bring their Debt-GDP ratio to around 90% ( still 30-50% too high). Now for a Country that isn't growing, and is unlikely to see any for 2+ years, or reach their 2007 GDP highs for another 10+ years (real GDP is at 2001 levels I Believe!!!) I don't see Italy a having a bright future which...
Your reasoning is correct, but the whole Western world is facing the problem of debt and, as Italy, the major Western countries have a gross demographic problem that makes the current public debt unaffordable. Italy is vulnerable, but I don't think that France, UK and Japan are not.
  • #830,911
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:27pm Aug 30, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting elisab
{quote} Your reasoning is correct, but the whole Western world is facing the problem of debt and, as Italy, the major Western countries have a gross demographic problem that makes the current public debt unaffordable. Italy is vulnerable, but I don't think that France, UK and Japan are not.
for sure there are others not just including France, UK and japan but there are places that are stronger, Australia/Singapore/norway/russia etc etc.

The BRIC are roughly

Brazil - 45%
Russia - 12%
India - 60%
China - 27%

on average much lower than the DM's and this is good, the recent problems are transitory and the EM world is still a good investment - just needs time for asset prices to cool off as the hot money leaves, but they're in decent shape as a whole
  • #830,912
  • Aug 30, 2013 7:43pm Aug 30, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting Magix
Personally, I am completely shocked by the fall today... Whuda Thunk? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6916435
LL on daily mango. weekly not looking good at all for bulls from where i'm sitting. what are your thoughts bro?
  • #830,913
  • Aug 30, 2013 8:39pm Aug 30, 2013 8:39pm
Im heavy buying today and sunday will be buying this mofo
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #830,914
  • Aug 30, 2013 11:10pm Aug 30, 2013 11:10pm
Quoting Magix
The current yearly candle... {image}
Smallest year to date range since inception.. Odds are tilted for range expansion Up.. or down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-20130830 Yearly.png Size: 109 KB


More over there..
  • #830,915
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:04am Aug 31, 2013 2:04am
I have posted my EURO analysis for coming week for those who are interested here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6931404
  • #830,916
  • Aug 31, 2013 3:06am Aug 31, 2013 3:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dilution is a fine thing. are the particles water soluble? drink up, the odds are with u?.. drink 8 more tomorrow.. drink it then piss it out for the next guy and his 8..
it takes a freaking long time to loose the radioactivity in the water a few generations i think... Statistically speaking, anyone who is reading this post has carbon that I exhaled 10 years ago in their body..
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #830,917
  • Aug 31, 2013 3:08am Aug 31, 2013 3:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i had reason to change from 72.. it just wasn't more probable. it went to 72, and i second guessed lying st. anyway its Friday... so i will be looking to s if we go to 3337and target 295x....i closed most shorts... if i went long or not is a secret.
i'm looking at 3304 instead.. 3337 is more significant? but if target is 295x the price still need to go south further before retrace...

hmm.....
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #830,918
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:09am Aug 31, 2013 8:09am
Your Comments Please !
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  • #830,919
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:50am Aug 31, 2013 8:50am
Quoting shaan295
Your Comments Please ! {image}
OMG!!!
  • #830,920
  • Aug 31, 2013 8:54am Aug 31, 2013 8:54am
EUR have been well above 1.4 with no qe and of course no EUR ccrisis
Below 1.32 brings eur crisis in focus
above 1.34 brings recovery in post EUR crisis and qe slowdown .
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