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  • #57,961
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:32pm Aug 30, 2013 1:32pm
TAH, Tymedu, Fex!
I am really appreciate yours feedbacks. We are learning from each other indeed! About EU my strategy will be to wait any strong signal of reversal and to place one trade as sum of all previous signals. I'll try to be not very fast with it))
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #57,962
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:40pm Aug 30, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting DmitryFX
TAH, Tymedu, Fex! I am really appreciate yours feedbacks. We are learning from each other indeed! About EU my strategy will be to wait any strong signal of reversal and to place one trade as sum of all previous signals. I'll try to be not very fast with it))
Agree, even if I like a lot the mid-term EU short, I think the proximity of the German elections could stop the drop for now. So, if the price breaks the technical trend level (see image) I will close my profitable orders banking around 1k pips.

Let's see as well all this conflict with Syria... it could move the market this weekend.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #57,963
  • Aug 30, 2013 1:45pm Aug 30, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting feinan
I'm not good at English, not my native language. Can i speak Mandarin here? hahaha kidding. by the way i have a question, what is the sign of MM is changing from bulls to bears or vice versa I cant find a lot of information on pdf. Thank you masters..
feinan,

If we could nail that down to something visible, specific and totally reliable, we truly would have the "Trader's Holy Grail".

We can know if the MMs are bulls or bears, most of the time. And when we are not sure, we are not trading. We can not know how they will move price. But, that is sufficient, together with common sense, to become superbly profitable.
  • #57,964
  • Edited 3:48pm Aug 30, 2013 2:56pm | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting DmitryFX
EU analyze From daily chart we can found bounce of the price from historical support around RN 1.32 {image} Yellow areas at 1H chart are showing the increasing of volumes while the price is falling. Pay attention to decreasing of volumes at pullbacks. {image} 15m chart is showing very notable activities below QN's. {image} And last one confirmation from 1M chart is very BULLISH bars below DS1 in 1 hour before Londen close. {image} On the base of above mentioned signs I think that MM's are BULLs now. Anybody agree?
VERY GOOD ANALYSIS Dmitry
Thanks for sharing......please keep it up.......
  • #57,965
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:02pm Aug 30, 2013 3:02pm
And finally the most interesting for me at now pair: EurAud
Even if we do not have any strong signals from PVA we can still use analyzing of volumes.
The daily chart of EA is very good example. Look at this falling volumes while price was raised.
The price had found resistance at 1.5000 level and even shown us Double Top pattern.
If the first one Top was like pin bar then second Top was very clear classical "Evening star" bearish reversal candlestick pattern.
What does it mean? It means VERY high probability of final reversing of bullish trend!
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May be I am wrong but H1 chart is showing BULLs. New Lows with bigger volumes and now broken trend line.... This Friday was very lazy((((
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I think today's pin bars of LO at 15M chart is quiet strong signal about Bullish power. As well yesterday was some kind stopping candle with notable bigger then average volume. Looks like I lossed very good possibility to close my short position and to make some short-term money((
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Definitely, for a now MM's are Bulls and today they heavy loaded with longs. M1 chart is showing this very clear.
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Ok, what does it mean? Probably it will be the last breathe before very deep dive and triple top pattern will be formed. We will see it soon...
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #57,966
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:36pm Aug 30, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} qFish, A "martingale" is a zero sum game. The sum total of all "indicators" applied results in the next play having no more or less statistical odds one way or the other than the last play. Zilch! Then came along a real brain that suggested doubling each subsequent bet. Carried to it's conclusion, the bets get so large that eventually an inevitable losing play wipes out the player! PVSRA is predicated on trading very light relative to account size. That should never change. That is the failsafe! I had to laugh to myself how ignorant...
Indeed Tah. The risk is amazingly high as the bets increase at an exponential rate. Trading light and staying away from such strategies may be our best bet to keep from account blow-out. Experience and real results speak louder than words, and you have that to back it up. Real results are what matters afterall and we must be doing something right to stay in this game. I think we got it down pretty good. Not perfect, but pretty damn good.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #57,967
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:40pm Aug 30, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU: DmitryFX, H1 shows Dragon has crossed down thru Trend Line. Since that happened, there has not been the "traditional" pullback upwards by the bear MMs to load up more shorts. There is one at the time of the crossing, but a subsequent one is something they most frequently do when they "smell" their bear run for profits is near at hand. The price has dropped less than 200 pips since then. Not much in the broader picture. Therefore, a push up to/into/thru the Dragon might yet be coming before a true run for profits. Signs of that might...
Another fine tuning of the PVSRA MASTER

For us NEWBIES my only advice is to take notes and understand what the best MINDS in these thread are trying to share to us. I myself is keeping a record of each of the CONTRIBUTORS analysis so that i can read it and re-read it when i need clarification of my own analysis.

when i still have doubts, that's the time to post the screen shot of your chart for help...by doing that it would not be hard for them to guide us.....else, if we just keep posting question with out any picture for them to see what we want to be explained.....we are just the one suffering....because of too many unnecessary post.....and... wasting of their VALUABLE TIME...

Just remember, like us, they are TRADERS too... and they don't get anything from what they are sharing here, we are blessed that these people here are sharing their knowledge and expertise for nothing.

So please.... when you request something....BE RESPECTFUL....else if their patience runs out...we will be at a loss

I HOPE I DON'T BORE YOU OUT......sori no picture.....it seems my analysis is out of tune.....i have to go back to the drawing board...

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND TO ALL.
  • #57,968
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:47pm Aug 30, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} Hi Dmitry, let me use your excellent post as an example about something I'm noticing lately in the thread. Maybe your post is not the best example to take but some of you guys are saying in this or another pairs that MMs are bulls because volume is increasing in a S/R area, and that doesn't have to be true. Of course, volume will increase in those areas because they are supply/demand areas, and in those areas always there will be guys trying to catch a bounce and that is volume. The hard part here is to try to identify if that is a simple...
THE BEST OF TYMEDU, Superb.... Explanation.... I LOVE IT....These goes again into my file.

Thank you TY
  • #57,969
  • Aug 30, 2013 7:46pm Aug 30, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} Tah, I meant time Tah, Time, lol. Even with 4 pairs, checking up on them can be quite the effort. But yeah, in terms of your account size, it's 3 times mine, so I DO definitely see that you can trade around... 12 pairs each taking up about 20 scouts and still have more than half your margin left in reserve. It's funny you mentioned number of trades and I think you are completely right. I've done a simple analysis on my past trade .... -qFish
How and When to Increase Trading


This deserves a bit more discussion. For those scalping or operating stop losses this is easy. I run a separate account for my scalps and am looking at how PVSRA informs decisions there. Three dragons as practiced by Islander being a good example. A bit harder for PVSRA scouts a la TAH.

Because of PVSRA's risk profile it makes leveraging decisions difficult, and I must admit I had thought impossible. However having got some actual results to play with it is possible to start to build a risk management strategy. As each trade is potentially unbounded risk mitigation needs to come from elsewhere:

  1. Limit Your Risk Capital
    The most obvious backstop should be account size. Only risk what you are prepared to lose and never meet a margin call. This effectively bounds your risk. This means to make a long term viable trading strategy using PVSRA you need to regularly take profit out of your account and lock it away in the do not touch cupboard or better still blow it on something completely unnecessary - leaving it in the account is tempting you to over trade.
  2. Kill Bad Trades
    There is always the option to exit a trade early or even kill a trade and accept the loss if it clearly goes wrong. A bit of housekeeping for those trades not going anywhere will free up capital for other better trades
  3. Diversify Your Portfolio
    Every investment piece you read says it and its no different, in fact more important here. We can see there are potential big drawdowns if you get on the wrong side of a trade. By having a basket of trades, not biased on a single currency big account drawdowns can be avoided. Restrict the number of yen pairs you are trading or taking hedge positions such as short EJ long UJ, hell throw in an EU as well and then its all covered. The important thing is to harvest the range, banking profit regularly as MM's manipulate prices up and down.
  4. Start Entries After Clear Trend Change
    Wait for a trend ending signal (Sonic classic as I think qFish is doing) or other signal before building positions. Its less risky building positions as you move into profit, sending out scouts to catch retracements. You may miss the top but does it matter?

Chacun a son gout as the French would say. Work out your own strategy but have one. Having done all that and got some actual PVSRA results then to look at leveraging up. I am working on a $7500 account with $0.10 lot size, up to eight pairs with 20 lots giving me over 8000 (20*400) pips headroom for each pair. Even then the account leverage can creep up alarmingly quickly but I do not expect to have to close positions prematurely through margin requirements too often. To leverage the account:

  1. Increase Number of Pairs
    Good for risk mitigation, I find eight is a lot of pairs to juggle though so am not going this route.
  2. Increase Number of Lots
    Plausible but becomes a bit unwieldy. I have crept up over my 20 guideline but only when positions are in profit and I am adding post classic sonic entries.
  3. Increase Lot Size
    The obvious but most dangerous option as the account grows. Extract at least your initial capital and make sure the remaining amount is at least twice what you started with before considering this.

All this is stating the blindingly obvious but helps to focus the mind - not least my own.

Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #57,970
  • Aug 30, 2013 8:12pm Aug 30, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting feinan
I'm not good at English, not my native language. Can i speak Mandarin here? hahaha kidding. by the way i have a question, what is the sign of MM is changing from bulls to bears or vice versa I cant find a lot of information on pdf. Thank you masters..
Is there no end to this girls talents? Perfect English and perfect trades.

Sometimes waiting until a clear trend break occurs helps - a Sonic classic perhaps. I like good old fashioned trend lines or just waiting for a change in the succession of higher highs highs and higher lows. Combine that with PVSRA and you have a winner but as TAH says its a bit of a holy grail, you just have to get it right more often than you get it wrong!

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Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #57,971
  • Aug 30, 2013 9:52pm Aug 30, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting revoli
{quote} How and When to Increase Trading This deserves a bit more discussion. For those scalping or operating stop losses this is easy. I run a separate account for my scalps and am looking at how PVSRA informs decisions there. Three dragons as practiced by Islander being a good example. A bit harder for PVSRA scouts a la TAH. Because of PVSRA's risk profile it makes leveraging decisions difficult, and I must admit I had thought impossible. However having got some actual results to play with it is possible to start to build a risk management strategy....
Wonderful Revoli. A very valuable post to read.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #57,972
  • Aug 31, 2013 12:42am Aug 31, 2013 12:42am
Quoting mykaelboy
{quote} THE BEST OF TYMEDU, Superb.... Explanation.... I LOVE IT....These goes again into my file. Thank you TY
You are more than welcome
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #57,973
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:00am Aug 31, 2013 2:00am
Quoting revoli
{quote} How and When to Increase Trading This deserves a bit more discussion. For those scalping or operating stop losses this is easy. I run a separate account for my scalps and am looking at how PVSRA informs decisions there. Three dragons as practiced by Islander being a good example. A bit harder for PVSRA scouts a la TAH. Because of PVSRA's risk profile it makes leveraging decisions difficult, and I must admit I had thought impossible. However having got some actual results to play with it is possible to start to build a risk management strategy....
Quoting qFish
{quote} Wonderful Revoli. A very valuable post to read. -qFish
You took the words right out of my mouth qFish! That was a wonderful post by Revoli.

It should be added to the pdf and possibly to the page 1 data.

The margin call isn't a totally bad thing, IF you keep the account balance at a
level you are comfortable with losing. It's kind of like the ultimate SL.

And a margin call doesn't necessarily blowout an account. It's designed to AVOID
blowing out an account, by closing some trades automatically for you.

Granted, it isn't a pleasant thing to experience, but it does protect you somewhat
when you've made an error in judgment or a trend turns against you.

  • #57,974
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:24am Aug 31, 2013 2:24am
Quoting DmitryFX
EU analyze From daily chart we can found bounce of the price from historical support around RN 1.32 {image} Yellow areas at 1H chart are showing the increasing of volumes while the price is falling. Pay attention to decreasing of volumes at pullbacks. {image} 15m chart is showing very notable activities below QN's. {image} And last one confirmation from 1M chart is very BULLISH bars below DS1 in 1 hour before Londen close. {image} On the base of above mentioned signs I think that MM's are BULLs now. Anybody agree?
I agree with you, DmitryFX. And I want to add this: 2/3 of the opened trades in OANDA are SHORTS. There's a lot of money pointing to the south...
My mother language is Spanish, so, please, be patient with me.
  • #57,975
  • Aug 31, 2013 2:38am Aug 31, 2013 2:38am
I know very well the trends, channels (not straight but polynomial) so mathematical and geometric, but I understand very little about PVRSA, but I believe that if we combine the two things do strike.


But I need a bit of manpower resources are limited because I really find it hard to analyze 20 instruments, comment and operate.
How can we join forces?
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500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #57,976
  • Aug 31, 2013 5:37am Aug 31, 2013 5:37am
Quoting DmitryFX
TAH, Tymedu, Fex! I am really appreciate yours feedbacks. We are learning from each other indeed! About EU my strategy will be to wait any strong signal of reversal and to place one trade as sum of all previous signals. I'll try to be not very fast with it))
Likewise, there is not that passes during which I don't learn something new. Thanks to your detailed analysis.
  • #57,977
  • Aug 31, 2013 5:41am Aug 31, 2013 5:41am
Quoting mykaelboy
{quote} THE BEST OF TYMEDU, Superb.... Explanation.... I LOVE IT....These goes again into my file. Thank you TY
I am trying to do likewise - extract such brilliant posts into my journal.

Does anyone have any ideas about how best to extract posts. I know some guys have produced some pdfs by extracting... any suggestions pls?
  • #57,978
  • Aug 31, 2013 6:39am Aug 31, 2013 6:39am
Quoting traderathome
2013 Upgrade Release of Sonic R. System Indicators & Templates Attached are the latest TAH indicators and templates for the Sonic R. System. Download the zip file. Extract it to yield the two folders for black and white charts that contain the files for the indicators and templates. Paste the indicator files into the MT4/experts/indicators folder. Paste the template files into the MT4/templates folder. Restart your MT4 application. A brief description of some changes follows the headings below for each indicator. For more complete information on...
Sir tah, a quick query - are these the latest indicators?

I hope that you are enjoying the weekend. You deserve it! Cheers, figgsey
  • #57,979
  • Edited 9:58am Aug 31, 2013 9:38am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting Apollo14
I know very well the trends, channels (not straight but polynomial) so mathematical and geometric, but I understand very little about PVRSA, but I believe that if we combine the two things do strike. But I need a bit of manpower resources are limited because I really find it hard to analyze 20 instruments, comment and operate. How can we join forces? {image} {image}
Apollo14,

Ah! Now we get to the crux of the matter! It might not be possible, Apollo14. But certainly not for lack of your trying. As you have stated, you are seeking a purely mathematical solution. PVSRA has both objective and subjective aspects. While the objective aspects might eventually be narrowed down to just those that most often have the most significant and most reliable indications (the purpose of the in-work project), and converted mathematically, the subjective aspects will defy mathematical conversion.

And that is the essence of why there will never be a Trader's Holy Grail, imho. The market movers are aware of technicals, and of non-technicals; of situations outside the market that can affect the market, or that can be deceptively talked about as though they will affect the market. And when it comes down to the rubber meeting the road, the market movers will do what makes them money, be damned the technicals and everything else! There is the phsycological aspect of deception that is as much a part of market moves as any technical is, or as any other "outside influence" is.

The purely technical aspects of PVSRA (price, volume, S&R levels) when properly analyzed yields surprisingly valid determinations as to whether the MMs are bulls or bears, regardless of which direction they are currently pushing the price. There too, is the aspect of where price came from and what it did back there, also objective. But there is the subjective, too. The "guess" as to how far the current swing might go, for which there is no reliable technical because that involves a projection into the future predicated on the MMs being compliant to all heretofore indications applied. This is where things fall apart!

We can know if the MMs are bulls or bears, most of the time. And when PVSRA fails to yield consistent determinations, it is time to stop trading because that is an indication in itself. We can never know how the MMs will move price, only if they are bulls or bears while doing so. This last statement is contradictory to the basic assumption made by those who have, are, or will seek purely mathematical solutions.

You might prevail. If you do, you will become known the world over! But, I see nothing in PVSRA that will allow crossing the gap between what has been and is, to what will be. PVSRA so far seems to be something that helps level the playing field. Maybe it even tips the scales from time to time in our favor. But it embodies no predictive absolutes. Anything "predictive" is a leap of faith the trader makes as a result of subjective analysis.

-tah
  • #57,980
  • Aug 31, 2013 10:01am Aug 31, 2013 10:01am
Quoting figgsey
{quote} Sir tah, a quick query - are these the latest indicators? I hope that you are enjoying the weekend. You deserve it! Cheers, figgsey

The latest released are those linked in Post #1. Folks that scour the paper clip list to find stuff are going about finding the best in a totally illogical way, and far more times than not they end up with outdated stuff.
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