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EUR/CHF

  • #10,921
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:00am Aug 27, 2013 10:00am
Why does Month end cause downward pressure?
  • #10,922
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:10am Aug 27, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Lover Man
Why does Month end cause downward pressure?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post6565155

This means in these days there is large volume CHF real money buying from central European banks. This is not exactly the last day of the month. Usually the last week of the months.

And there is another effect: EURCHF is highly correlated with USDJPY (Risk On, Risk Off effect). In USDJPY there is month end down pressure to, because of the big exporter company JPY bujing.
  • #10,923
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:24am Aug 27, 2013 10:24am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post6565155 This means in these days there is large volume CHF real money buying from central European banks. This is not exactly the last day of the month. Usually the last week of the months. And there is another effect: EURCHF is highly correlated with USDJPY (Risk On, Risk Off effect). In USDJPY there is month end down pressure to, because of the big exporter company JPY bujing.
Ok thanks.

Where is our next support line below 1.228?
  • #10,924
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:27am Aug 27, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Lover Man
{quote} Ok thanks. Where is our next support line below 1.228?
1,2270 is 200 Day MA
1,2264 is august low
1,2215 is jun low, and a daily trendline. I think this is the most stronger support
  • #10,925
  • Aug 27, 2013 10:28am Aug 27, 2013 10:28am
Quoting PhilouFX
Hi guys, this is how I see it - Daily: status quo; no up move, no down pressure. RSI flat. Nice little flag (in green on my daily chart) in which we are hangging inthe middle... Lot's of experts are watching the MVA200 & they remain bull as long as we are above this line... To me, we could well close bellow this week... - 4 Hours: status quo, no up move, no down pressure. RSI flat. We re-entrered the 4H down chanel for the 2nd time. We are in a range 1.228 - 1.238. - Hourly chart: still nothing going on!! Elsewhere, the JPY is also indecisive. No...
I posted these 2 charts earlier this week, so the rates are no longer correct, but the supports/resistances are clearly marked (these are the ones I follow).
So to me the next major support is 1.225, check back the past few months, it did well.

Sorry charts are not brought over, please check post 10 896, a couple of pages back.

Simon, tks for your link, good work.
  • #10,926
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:39pm Aug 27, 2013 12:39pm
I think it wants to go lower. Days like today which end with no reversal usually continue into the next day.
  • #10,927
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:56pm Aug 27, 2013 12:56pm
Just checked the Daily pivots on my home computer. We've been battling between S2 and S3 today which is super bearish.

S2 - 1.23034
S3 - 1.22859
  • #10,928
  • Aug 27, 2013 1:02pm Aug 27, 2013 1:02pm
EC Long Zones 1.2265-70, 1.2235-40(price must stop and reverse from here), under prepare to find EC 1.2170-75 and probably 1.2135-55

EC Short Zones Next Time

Don't ask why. Remember me
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,929
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:32pm Aug 27, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting Simon73
{quote} I am ready to buy in any spike down
added longs with utmost determination
  • #10,930
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:39pm Aug 27, 2013 2:39pm
however Im not a big fan of HS formations anyone noted the HS pattern on H4 in the last five days with a target 1,229 - 1,228...?
  • #10,931
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:20pm Aug 27, 2013 5:20pm
At the moment no signals can let us think of a weakening of EurChf below 1.20. I would prefer a trade on UsdChf.
  • #10,932
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:24pm Aug 27, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting elisab
At the moment no signals can let us think of a weakening of EurChf below 1.20. I would prefer a trade on UsdChf.
Usd chf just pointing down for me.
  • #10,933
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:27pm Aug 27, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting pipxster
however Im not a big fan of HS formations anyone noted the HS pattern on H4 in the last five days with a target 1,229 - 1,228...?
I saw the hs. Its not much of a formation in my view as the h and s highs are all baaically at the same level.
  • #10,934
  • Aug 28, 2013 12:27am Aug 28, 2013 12:27am
Today's Pivots:

Weekly Pivot - 1.23267
R1 ------------- 1.23231
Mid Point ----- 1.23123
PP ------------- 1.23015
Mid Point ----- 1.22828
S1 ------------- 1.22641


The Mid Point Pivot at 1.22828 has held price all night which is good for us buyers. The same has happened on USD CHF overnight and GBP CHF. My bet is these will make a move up towards their PP.
  • #10,935
  • Aug 28, 2013 1:52am Aug 28, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Lover Man
Today's Pivots: Weekly Pivot - 1.23267 R1 ------------- 1.23231 Mid Point ----- 1.23123 PP ------------- 1.23015 Mid Point ----- 1.22828 S1 ------------- 1.22641 The Mid Point Pivot at 1.22828 has held price all night which is good for us buyers. The same has happened on USD CHF overnight and GBP CHF. My bet is these will make a move up towards their PP.
I wish the same, though, I am getting concerned, if we stay too long on this strong resistance, any news could break it. We already touched it by 3 times, probabilities are not in our side.
Yet, all indices (DAX, Dow), most majors are on support, USDJPY seem to make a little rounding bottom en H1, so, I also hope/wish/expect an upward move... but generally speaking we are not out of the wood yet...
  • #10,936
  • Aug 28, 2013 3:23am Aug 28, 2013 3:23am
So we got close to the pivot and then down. Seems the sellers were waiting there. Lets see if 1.228 holds now.
  • #10,937
  • Aug 28, 2013 3:35am Aug 28, 2013 3:35am
Quoting Lover Man
So we got close to the pivot and then down. Seems the sellers were waiting there. Lets see if 1.228 holds now.
Yep, 2nd step (in our direction) would be a H1 & H4 close above the psychological 1.230 level...
  • #10,938
  • Edited 6:15am Aug 28, 2013 3:39am | Edited 6:15am
i reckon its going to 1.22200

and below.

Reasons are it broke a uptrend line from 15.04.13 retested it and started to fall again and as we have said it is one of the safest havens for money.

Although it does need to close below the daily 200 as soon as america gets in they will push it lower.

watch it go screaming up the other way now haha
  • #10,939
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:05am Aug 28, 2013 8:05am
pressure builds so lets see a breakout anyway...start to get bored
last year in similar situations almost always the other scenario/direction prevailed at the end than the tech indicators and the chart showed

on the fundamental side the SNB can be "happy" with the USDCHF last 2 years range's lower bound
they have done nothing with that part of their export markets that maybe 50% of their total foreign trade
I think they even mentioned this in the last couple of months (Zuerbruegg or Dathine)
  • #10,940
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:36am Aug 28, 2013 8:36am
XAU, XAG release pressure,
Oil: release pressure
DAX: no panic yet
DOW: holding at time of USD opening
USDJPY: nice rounding bottom, nearly 1.00 up since yesturday
EURUSD: still in it range

EURCHF:.... stuck at the bottom.... I guess as time passes by & more people are talking 1.20x, 1.21x, some long orders on 1.228 / 1.225 are being removed... Making the potential fall faster !!??.... But, we are not there yet..
Bullish divergence in H1
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