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  • #6,021
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:19am Aug 25, 2013 4:19am
Hi Tim,

I have a few questions if you would be so kind to indulge:

1) What is your exit strategy for the long positions that you have established on USDJPY ?

2) What is the current situation of losses whilst establishing these long positions, versus the floating profit shown currently by these long positions ?

Many thanks,

Cam
  • #6,022
  • Edited 11:52am Aug 25, 2013 11:32am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Tim, I have a few questions if you would be so kind to indulge: 1) What is your exit strategy for the long positions that you have established on USDJPY ? 2) What is the current situation of losses whilst establishing these long positions, versus the floating profit shown currently by these long positions ? Many thanks, Cam
Tim - For #2, may I suggest putting this indicator on the same U/J chart to post your results? It will display floating/realized/net in pips (and dollars) ever made on this pair. It's a good barometer for your own performance stat in real time. Set the dollar parameter to false as no one should care about how much $$$ you are making.

Disclosure: Screenshot is from my old demo account as I no longer trade on MT4.

EDIT: If you REALY want to share, learn and grow with us, put this 'mother of all stats' indicator and share a screenshot with us. It will display each pair you have ever traded along with trade open times to show which hour has been the most profitable for your trading style.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pipsometer_5_decimal (Vee).mq4   5 KB | 564 downloads
File Type: mq4 Basket_Stats (by FXEZ-Vee).mq4   12 KB | 536 downloads
File Type: mq4 Basket_Stats_Time.mq4   10 KB | 561 downloads
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,023
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:19pm Aug 25, 2013 2:19pm
gssintokyo
Thanks pal,i learned that the hard way.

Quoting cameron1st
Hi Tim, I have a few questions if you would be so kind to indulge: 1) What is your exit strategy for the long positions that you have established on USDJPY ? 2) What is the current situation of losses whilst establishing these long positions, versus the floating profit shown currently by these long positions ? Many thanks, Cam
Hello cameron,

1.I am not focused too much for exits.I am more focused into my entries and to find my own edge. I may exit to the next good weekly supply,however i will not exit all of them.

2.I had few losses on 1min,5min and 15min chart,4-5 of them with average loss of 12 pips. Many potions dying at be (it hurts a lottt ) but i don't keep detailed track (i know my bad)
  • #6,024
  • Aug 25, 2013 2:24pm Aug 25, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Tim - For #2, may I suggest putting this indicator on the same U/J chart to post your results? It will display floating/realized/net in pips (and dollars) ever made on this pair. It's a good barometer for your own performance stat in real time. Set the dollar parameter to false as no one should care about how much $$$ you are making. Disclosure: Screenshot is from my old demo account as I no longer trade on MT4. EDIT: If you REALY want to share, learn and grow with us, put this 'mother of all stats' indicator and share a screenshot with...
Thanks Vee,that's what i am doing here,sharing and learning together.
Here is what it shows for U/J
Attached Image

I think it shows floating pips right?

I will not post previous stats of my account,i've blow up many pips there and is something that i want to forget.However,i will try to post my future trades-charts

Tim
  • #6,025
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:20pm Aug 25, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting timos
{quote} Thanks Vee,that's what i am doing here,sharing and learning together. Here is what it shows for U/J {image} I think it shows floating pips right? I will not post previous stats of my account,i've blow up many pips there and is something that i want to forget.However,i will try to post my future trades-charts Tim
You have to choose "All History" in the history tab. Move the mouse on the indicator and it will tell you what each number stands for. If you have zero realized loss, either this is your first floating stack on UJ or all your historical trades were at BE or BE+. I suggest you put the consolidated positions indicator (I posted a while back in this thread) on the chart and it will tell you how far is your average price away from current price. If it is anywhere under 50-60 pips away from current price, you have a high probability of turning your stack into a net loss... just saying... stacking is a double edge sword. Majority of M1/M5/M15 TF based stacks will die at BE or turn into loss if you are not setting SL>BE. It's inevitable as SCALE matters a lot in lower timeframes. For anyone out here who got a probe still surviving on M5 with a tiny 5pip SL just got lucky! It's a waste of "time and effort" to focus so much on entries and miss out on the bigger picture.... just saying/

So I ask again.... show us how far is your "average price" away from current price? The survivability of your stack depends on this simple mathematical truth if you are not using SL>BE for each stack. R/R and supply/demand lines are just there to give you emotional support or to cause havoc to your account stability :-)))

IF
Long Term Position Trading is ALL about finding price levels that never re-visit for next year+
THEN
There is/are far better ways to FIND those price levels rather that taking punts/probes/guesses each and every day just in the name of 'participation'.
ELSE
You are better off stacking heavily like you have on UJ and taking profit when your floating pips turns into a 10+ times the price movement. Consider yourself a ROCKSTAR if you are able to extract 10x the price movement in just a few hours. To me, that IS growth.

"Time Versus Effort"... no one talks much about it. Why would I spend my energy in forex if I am only making 1000 pips a month by starring charts 8 hours a day... that's only 1000/4*40 = 6.2 pips per hour. If you are trading anything less than 1 standard lot, that's BELOW minimum wage! We are better off working at McDonnalds flipping burgers
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,026
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:47pm Aug 25, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting timos
1.I am not focused too much for exits.I am more focused into my entries and to find my own edge. I may exit to the next good weekly supply,however i will not exit all of them.
As a reminder, realised profits, the ones that feed your family, are made at the exit of the positions, not at the entry ... so I would suggest to you that exits are even more important than the entries.

It seems to me there is a misunderstanding in the forum, that Graeme would leave his positions grow and grow and never exit, but you are missing the part where he was taking profits whenever there was an anticipation of a major support or resistance area if he was with the trend, or ... he took profits quicker if he traded against the trend for shorter term.

My opinion is that if you do not learn how to exit positions, and limit yourself to living on the hope that your legs will grow to be 10,000 pips each ... then you are not going to make much money.

Quoting timos
2.I had few losses on 1min,5min and 15min chart,4-5 of them with average loss of 12 pips. Many potions dying at be (it hurts a lottt ) but i don't keep detailed track (i know my bad)
Yeah it is critical you keep stats ... that is the key to seeing patterns, for example, let's say you enter trades a week ... 5 trades every day, 25 in total ... and eventually all get closed at break-even.

But you go back, and look at how much in profit each trade would have gone to before returning to BE, and maybe you notice something like this:

2 BE ......... 0 R:R
8 loss .......... -8 R:R (if you always trade with the same position size per trade)
10 would have gone up to 2:1 R:R ............ in total 20 R:R
4 would have gone up to 4:1 R:R ............ in total 16 R:R
1 would have gone up to 12:1 R:R .......... in total 12 R:R

From those theoretical stats, you could deduce that after you put a trade to brake even, if you set your target to 2:1 R:R you make money. And you can keep doing that, but you also have to keep an eye on your patterns, all the time, because some day, maybe a target of 10:1 will be more appropriate.

So that is how you are using your stats to create and implement a theorem.
  • #6,027
  • Aug 25, 2013 4:58pm Aug 25, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting cameron1st
{quote} As a reminder, realised profits, the ones that feed your family, are made at the exit of the positions, not at the entry ... so I would suggest to you that exits are even more important than the entries. It seems to me there is a misunderstanding in the forum, that Graeme would leave his positions grow and grow and never exit, but you are missing the part where he was taking profits whenever there was an anticipation of a major support or resistance area if he was with the trend, or ... he took profits quicker if he traded against the trend...


"Alot of traders tend to focus 'pinpoint picture perfect entries' and 'razor sharp profit producing exits.' My personal take on entry is that as long as you clearly define the main momentum and have the ability/skill to see where you currently stand in that momentum this will give you the first reasons to why you should enter/exit. You need to read the road signs."

... post #18

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post3866117
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,028
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:26pm Aug 25, 2013 5:26pm
This was one of my best DEMO trades ever. Every morning I stare at this chart for few minutes to get inspiration. 3 yrs into this journey and still a long road ahead.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #6,029
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:35pm Aug 25, 2013 5:35pm
and applying the same principles on GBPCAD monthly. uhem... tip of wick strategy / highest probability for a probe to survive !

(I am back at cluttering this thread again... will delete my posts soon)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #6,030
  • Aug 25, 2013 5:38pm Aug 25, 2013 5:38pm
and practicing the same gig in demo :-
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  • #6,031
  • Aug 25, 2013 6:12pm Aug 25, 2013 6:12pm
Vee & cameron thanks for your inputs and posts friends.


Vee here is U/J with all my history (I started with live account since the begining)

Attached Image


But not the same lot size.I am still in loss,even if i make more than 953 pips.

Once i extract some stats,will continue with fixed lot size

Best regards,
Tim
  • #6,032
  • Aug 25, 2013 6:14pm Aug 25, 2013 6:14pm
Aud Jpy,it seems that this pair is risk free + some realized profit.
My best stacked pair until now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Vee,thanks again for that great indi
  • #6,033
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:11pm Aug 25, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting timos
Aud Jpy,it seems that this pair is risk free + some realized profit. My best stacked pair until now. {image} Vee,thanks again for that great indi

Great Tim. None of these are my indicators as I am not a developer. Just borrowed and tweaked the code to fit my needs by hitting F1 in MT4 editor for help with functions. A good programer can expand the scope of these indicators tremendously to exploit hidden traits in their trading stats. The best indicator is the consolidated positions indicator with alerting features I added. It will bombard you with alerts every time price crosses the average stacked level... a useful tool when you are in a frantic state stacking aggressively. Unfortunately, I had to move my accounts back from UK to US due to regulation and then got out of using MT4 altogether.

You should not view your AjJ as risk free pair and not touch it anymore. Run the basket time indicator, investigate why this pair gave you green pips, what time of the day it was most successful. She is YOUR holy grail crying your attention to extract more pips. Some pairs give a lot and some pairs take a lot and in forex, timing (hint: session open/close, news release) is very crucial to your overall profitability.

Good talk.... off to a movie :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,034
  • Aug 25, 2013 9:18pm Aug 25, 2013 9:18pm
Quoting timos
Vee & cameron thanks for your inputs and posts friends. Vee here is U/J with all my history (I started with live account since the begining) {image} But not the same lot size.I am still in loss,even if i make more than 953 pips. Once i extract some stats,will continue with fixed lot size Best regards, Tim
"fixed lot size" is the absolute requirement for pip accounting. I did that mistake too in my journey. I will never ever ever EVER change my lot size in the middle of accounting period (month;y, quarterly or yearly or whatever). If you want to increase exposure, pick another pair and add two positions simultaneously.
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,035
  • Aug 26, 2013 3:50am Aug 26, 2013 3:50am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} "fixed lot size" is the absolute requirement for pip accounting. I did that mistake too in my journey. I will never ever ever EVER change my lot size in the middle of accounting period (month;y, quarterly or yearly or whatever). If you want to increase exposure, pick another pair and add two positions simultaneously.
Vee, for my own trading I use "fixed monetary value", because the pips at risk with each entry (the distance between the entry price and the stop-loss price, and also spread) will be different. I want my risk parameters to remain constant, and that means monetary value.

If you have three entries for the day:

entry 1.3000 SL 1.2970 - risk 30 pips
entry 1.3100 SL 1.3085 - risk 15 pips
entry 1.3200 SL 1.3150 - risk 50 pips

If you use 2 lots size for all three positions above, that's not the same risk, because the monetary value at risk is different in each case.

Fixed monetary value is the only way calculating Reward:Risk makes sense ... so that you can compare the same Risk between entries.
  • #6,036
  • Aug 26, 2013 5:11am Aug 26, 2013 5:11am
Cameron, I'm not sure if using different lot sizes on a single pair is a very good idea, millipede-wise. Using a fixed lot size naturally "sorts" the positions so the largest in value are the ones least likely to be taken out. You lose this property if you adjust the lot sizes to match a fixed monetary value. In your example, the value of your second entry would grow/shrink over 3 times faster than the last one. I'm not entirely sure of what the psychological effects of this would be, but it makes me slightly uneasy.
  • #6,037
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:42am Aug 26, 2013 7:42am
Barbossa,

My trading philosophy centeres around the belief that the only thing you can control when trading is the risk, and I do that by allocating the same monetary value to every trade.

Moreover, in respect to Graeme's posts, he said there was no particular reason why he was using 2 lots each time, so his stance was neutral on the matter.

I personally have not found any difficulties in managing positions in that manner, like everything it is an individual choice, but always think logically, do you really have your risk under control ? I found it hard to gather statistics on my trading when each position had a different risk parameter.

In the end, everyone has to understand that the market is like a box, filled with an infinity of items ... and you, and an individual, can grab as many items as you want, and use them however you want, in whichever order, with the purpose to make money ... hence the thoughts above, were the items I chose to believe, and yours, might be completely different ... and that is the reason I do not usually post about my trading, because it is different to everyone else's.
  • #6,038
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:06am Aug 26, 2013 9:06am
Agreed, it's all a personal choice. I'd still like to make a remark on the risk control though.
Using a fixed lot, yes, I can still be in control of my risk, by assigning a maximum monetary value to any individual trade. If the market lets me enter with smaller risk - all the better.
That being said, I'm not implying that your views on the matter are "wrong". I'm just presenting a different opinion as it could give other readers more insight when the time comes for them to answer that questions for their own trading style.

Best regards,
Barbossa
  • #6,039
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:06am Aug 27, 2013 5:06am
Quoting timos
{quote} Vee, you're right. The probability of anything to happen is 50%. It will either do or not.We are all at the mercy of the market.Anything can happen at anytime. I am taking this little risk. The positions that are not at be are very small in size compared to the other positions.If price drops below 1h resistance,i will close at loss,if not i will watch PA and then decide what to do. Tim
Curious what you are thinking at the moment about your stacks? We are in RISK OFF mode. Have been looking out at short opportunities myself since last week.

Keep up the good work pal. You have certainly excelled in your stacking skills.
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,040
  • Aug 27, 2013 5:34am Aug 27, 2013 5:34am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Curious what you are thinking at the moment about your stacks? We are in RISK OFF mode. Having been looking out at short opportunities myself since last week. Keep up the good work pal. You have certainly excelled in your stacking skills.
Vee,thanks.I got rid of all indicators,ma etc.What i think is,where it might go and how it will close (above/below ). Just price action and horizontal lines (for s/r). Since then I've been watch "clearly" how price moves,where it does react,how strong is a move,possible fake outs (when you see a full bold candle,out of nowhere without retrace,most likely is a fake out) etc.Watching clean charts is more easy spotting good momentum,where price may breakout,how does usually breaks (hint,when price breaks out,most of the time,it will retest the breakout before continuing) .

P.s U/j positions all vanished but i am still holding 2 (long) of them from 96.6

Time for some charts
Aud/Jpy If i were agressive on this one,could extract lot of pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nzd/Usd

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P.S.S Never focus just on the major pairs,you will leave many pips and good entries in the table

Tim
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