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EUR/CHF

  • #10,881
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:41am Aug 23, 2013 8:41am
Hi guys, my first post here.
Just read the last couple of pages to get the mood of the members here. Over the past couple of weeks many analysts foresee this pair to hit 1.27... Well, to me this would be possible in a perfect world with genuine economic growth, etc, etc.
So, CHF et YEN are safe heaven, as soon as clouds appear, then will get stronger. Yet, 'In BNS we trust', and in short term, I see no reasons to go bellow 1.225.
  • #10,882
  • Aug 23, 2013 8:54am Aug 23, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Lover Man
{quote} I try not to worry about stuff like this. If it is too easy or not. I keep it simple. I think the pair looks like it is going up and it will go up more. So I buy. If I start to over think if it is too easy or not then it gets too confusing.
thanks for the reply Lover Man and welcome to the thread, some of us here are following the pair since 2-3 years or more and its
great to have some fresh views with some useful tech background like pivots and other you have posted
(I dont use pivots so far but I think its time to do it) or shorter MAs that we used here before (almost only 200 MA)

Im not worried at all, but I meant that its just currently getting quite mechanical to follow my strategy (that works very well) with this situation
and Im started to prepare myself to think about new scenarios and setups that I think will come soon

keep on good posting
  • #10,883
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:11am Aug 23, 2013 9:11am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} thanks for the reply Lover Man and welcome to the thread, some of us here are following the pair since 2-3 years or more and its great to have some fresh views with some useful tech background like pivots and other you have posted (I dont use pivots so far but I think its time to do it) or shorter MAs that we used here before (almost only 200 MA) Im not worried at all, but I meant that its just currently getting quite mechanical to follow my strategy (that works very well) with this situation and Im started to prepare myself to think about...

I made some good money 2 or 3 years ago when it was going down constantly. I used to trade between pivots intra day. The it stopped going down and I lost money. I started switching to different pairs with mixed results. Since then I got a proper job and have been watching for the chance to return. I might pack up work again soon and go back to intra day - we'll see. So my experience with medium term trades is very limited. I dont like holding trades over night. I much prefer getting in and out within an hour or less and then forgetting about it. So this is all new to me. I keep my analysis simple and try no to think.
  • #10,884
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:24am Aug 23, 2013 9:24am
For the past few months, if you want to understand EURCHF, ALWAYS keep a close eye on USDJPY. They are highly correlated.
Just now 99.1x, which is heavy resistance (high of a 4H channel + support line of multi month). US home figures are not too good => both paires move into the same direction, at the same time.
Support 1.2415 does not seem to be holding, next one is around 1.2315. We should see some support of this later one. THis is also a good level to take some longs.
  • #10,885
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:12am Aug 23, 2013 10:12am
EURCHF has fell every Friday for weeks. I was expecting a fall. It looks like its following USDCHF to me. USDCHF seems to be going down down down. Until USDCHF starts going up I think EURCHF might keep going down or just doing nothing / ranging.
  • #10,886
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:13am Aug 23, 2013 10:13am
An hour ago, I mentioned 1.2315 as a good support, we've just hit 1.23184, close enough
  • #10,887
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:20am Aug 23, 2013 10:20am
Quoting PhilouFX
An hour ago, I mentioned 1.2315 as a good support, we've just hit 1.23184, close enough
Shockingly poor anal cyst. Other threads might accept this hap hazard guess work but not here. Please shoot yourself immediately.
  • #10,888
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:23am Aug 23, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Lover Man
EURCHF has fell every Friday for weeks. I was expecting a fall. It looks like its following USDCHF to me. USDCHF seems to be going down down down. Until USDCHF starts going up I think EURCHF might keep going down or just doing nothing / ranging.
Nothing to do with the day of the week.

USD down to all currencies due to negative news on homes sales today at 10am EST. Excellent occasion to trade on the news. ALWAYS keep an eye on calendar.
  • #10,889
  • Aug 23, 2013 10:33am Aug 23, 2013 10:33am
Quoting Lover Man
EURCHF has fell every Friday for weeks. I was expecting a fall. It looks like its following USDCHF to me. USDCHF seems to be going down down down. Until USDCHF starts going up I think EURCHF might keep going down or just doing nothing / ranging.
This used to be true last year, but less in recent time. Simply, because everybody was seeking refuge before the W.E. when markets are closed. But, over the past few months, this Friday drop was less obvious. Again, see the USDJPY, just today, they both reacted in the same direction at the same time.
  • #10,890
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:57pm Aug 23, 2013 1:57pm
So we've had an up morning and a down afternoon.

The D1 bar has opened just below the Simple 20 MA and failed to close above. Both today's and yesterday's D1 bars were similar and the MA isn't really showing a direction.

The H4 chart appears more bullish. Several bars opening and closing above the Simple 20 MA and it is starting to point upwards. However price is now sitting on the MA so Monday's action could determine direction.

Just looking at the above I would say direction is vague but my bias and position remains long.
  • #10,891
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:39pm Aug 23, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting Lover Man
So we've had an up morning and a down afternoon. The D1 bar has opened just below the Simple 20 MA and failed to close above. Both today's and yesterday's D1 bars were similar and the MA isn't really showing a direction. The H4 chart appears more bullish. Several bars opening and closing above the Simple 20 MA and it is starting to point upwards. However price is now sitting on the MA so Monday's action could determine direction. Just looking at the above I would say direction is vague but my bias and position remains long.

Sorry, but If you want to reduce today's actions to pure TA without consideration to the US news of today that shifted all pairs of 500 pips and more in 30 minutes, I will have to rank your contributions in a different category than useful.
  • #10,892
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:25pm Aug 23, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Paz
{quote} Sorry, but If you want to reduce today's actions to pure TA without consideration to the US news of today that shifted all pairs of 500 pips and more in 30 minutes, I will have to rank your contributions in a different category than useful.
Rank me under rubbish. I am not trying to claim I know anything magical. I thought the idea of this forum is to discus our views on this pair. I have tried to express my view. I dont see yours?
  • #10,893
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:47pm Aug 23, 2013 7:47pm
Well, I've expressed mine twice above. No problem, good trading!
  • #10,894
  • Aug 24, 2013 1:49am Aug 24, 2013 1:49am
Quoting Paz
Well, I've expressed mine twice above. No problem, good trading!
So medium term do you think up or down or nowhere?
  • #10,895
  • Aug 24, 2013 6:54am Aug 24, 2013 6:54am
I hope for in-range action, that can be inversely correlated to EUR/USD. That has worked quite good for me so far.
However in case the USD is to appreciate, there is no reason for this pair to not be significantly higher too.
  • #10,896
  • Edited Aug 26, 2013 12:01am Aug 25, 2013 2:36pm | Edited Aug 26, 2013 12:01am
Hi guys, this is how I see it




- Daily: status quo; no up move, no down pressure. RSI flat. Nice little flag (in green on my daily chart) in which we are hangging inthe middle... Lot's of experts are watching the MVA200 & they remain bull as long as we are above this line... To me, we could well close bellow this week...
- 4 Hours: status quo, no up move, no down pressure. RSI flat. We re-entrered the 4H down chanel for the 2nd time. We are in a range 1.228 - 1.238.
- Hourly chart: still nothing going on!!

Elsewhere, the JPY is also indecisive. No important statistics in this early week.

So, to me, I vote for range trading. Buy on the the supports, take partial profit on all resistances.

Have a good trading week.
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  • #10,897
  • Edited 3:01pm Aug 26, 2013 2:41pm | Edited 3:01pm
Shitty data out of the USA,Syria troubles elections in Germany I don't think eur/chf will be going very far for a while.

if things escalate in Syria I could see eur/chf heading back to 1.20
  • #10,898
  • Aug 26, 2013 3:31pm Aug 26, 2013 3:31pm
I was just thinking we'd had a positive day till an hour ago then boom. What happened?
  • #10,899
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:12pm Aug 26, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting Lover Man
I was just thinking we'd had a positive day till an hour ago then boom. What happened?
Another way of looking at it 'Why would we have a positive day?'. Which news or info should trigger a rally? Take it as an open question. Left everything alone, I guess the pair would go up (CHF depreciate), but, every stone on the road makes it stumble... Unfortunately... I see many stones ahead...
  • #10,900
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:51am Aug 27, 2013 2:51am
The 200 ma is not going to come to the rescue this time.

or is it?
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