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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #345,421
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:46pm Aug 16, 2013 6:46pm
Looking 600 pips to the upside (this is not a prediction lol - it's just preparation !) - as of Friday's close (updated for next week re Weekly Pivots and where trend lines come through, Not including Monday's Daily Pivots.)

[ 5647-55 prev minor 1hr/minor 4hr sw hi zone

[ 5750-70 monthly descending t/line coming thru on weekly candle

[ 5667-75 prev 4hr sw hi zone

5712 Weekly R1 @/around

5725-33-51 prev 4hr/daily/weekly swing hi zone

5760 61.8% 6349-4811

5772 50% 6746-4811 and Monthly R2 @/around

5800 Weekly R2 @/around

5813-44 prev daily minor sw hi zone

5820-77 prev weekly sw lo zone incl: 5861-77 prev daily minor sw hi zone

5984 76.4% 6349-4811

5998-6058 prev minor weekly sw lo zone (non immed) incl 5998 = 61.8% 6746-4811

6033 Weekly R3 @/around

6111 Monthly R3 @/around

6122 85.4% 6349-4811

6163-6178 prev daily sw hi zone

6190-6210 weekly/monthly descending trend line (top of old monthly contracting triangle) coming thru on weekly candle

6266 Weekly R4 @/around

6278-6309-6349 prev weekly/monthly sw hi zone incl 6278=76.4% 6746-4811
---------------------------------------------------------

key@ prev = previous, incl = including, immed = immediate, sw = swing

G/L
ex member
  • #345,422
  • Aug 17, 2013 5:47am Aug 17, 2013 5:47am
I have posted my POUND Analysis for coming week for those who are interested here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post6900163
  • #345,423
  • Edited 10:54am Aug 17, 2013 10:23am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting Purple
I have posted my POUND Analysis for coming week for those who are interested here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post6900163

"POUND has broken out of its inverted Head and Shoulders pattern with a target to 1.63, there is one final resistance at 1.5750 beyond which there is no further resistance till 1.63. Look to buy at dips near the rising trendline.."

Every trend is new
Which means price could turn around at any point back to 1.50 at any round number 57 57.5 58 58.5 59 etc.
To assume price has no resistance is a fallacy or statistically flawed.
1.63 is 680pips from current price.That is serious gain on weak fundamentals with looming Feds QE easing on the corner..

Consider that 200MA on weekly is above which means longer term "trend" is down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.weekly.png Size: 42 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #345,424
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:15am Aug 17, 2013 11:15am
Quoting bbmac
Looking 600 pips to the upside (this is not a prediction lol - it's just preparation !) - as of Friday's close (updated for next week re Weekly Pivots and where trend lines come through, Not including Monday's Daily Pivots.) [ 5647-55 prev minor 1hr/minor 4hr sw hi zone [ 5750-70 monthly descending t/line coming thru on weekly candle [ 5667-75 prev 4hr sw hi zone 5712 Weekly R1 @/around 5725-33-51 prev 4hr/daily/weekly swing hi zone 5760 61.8% 6349-4811 5772 50% 6746-4811 and Monthly R2 @/around 5800 Weekly R2 @/around 5813-44 prev daily minor sw...

Just want to say you can't construct a " preparation" on lot of past data.Statistically flawed.You have a nice deck of cards each supporting your bias.On each junction you got equal chance of being wrong.
Trading is not that simple otherwise Liberians and historians will dominate wall street.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #345,425
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:43am Aug 17, 2013 11:43am
I don't have a bias - I am flat which is how I end each trading session, day and week. My 'preparation' of potential resistance/support becomes resistance (sbr) factors to the upside is consistent with the edge which revolves around repeating patterns at such potential res/sbr or indeed potential sup/rbs confluences in order to get with or against prevailing opa (overall price action) conditions on the t/f's of interest to me. I know in advance based on large sample historical data/trades collated over years of trading this edge what the probability is of a successful outcome given each set-up/set-up combo is - consistent with my edge and so I am able to guage whether a hi probability trading opportunity exists or not based on the greater probability (or not) being present. I do not know whether the greater probability will actually play out and result in a successful outcome on any single occasion I act on it and enter the market because I like all others am not able to tell what the market will do next - all I know is that over the course of the sample - the gain I make when it does on the occasions it does outstrips the loss I incur when it doesn't....That is the edge. Trading therefore for me at least (and I am sure others too) is '...that simple...' (as opposed to easy) whether you agree it is or not.

PS: I am sure there are many people in Liberia who can trade !?

G/L

Quoting Davit
{quote} Just want to say you can't construct a " preparation" on lot of past data.Statistically flawed.You have a nice deck of cards each supporting your bias.On each junction you got equal chance of being wrong. Trading is not that simple otherwise Liberians and historians will dominate wall street.
ex member
  • #345,426
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:57am Aug 17, 2013 11:57am
Quoting bbmac
I don't have a bias - I am flat which is how I end each trading session, day and week. My 'preparation' of potential resistance/support becomes resistance (sbr) factors to the upside is consistent with the edge which revolves around repeating patterns at such potential res/sbr or indeed potential sup/rbs confluences in order to get with or against prevailing opa (overall price action) conditions on the t/f's of interest to me. I know in advance based on large sample historical data/trades collated over years of trading this edge what the probability...
That's how true trader must think and act. Great post
  • #345,427
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:59am Aug 17, 2013 11:59am
The greater probability (based on large sample past evidence) and particularly given the distance to it is that there will be resistance between Friday's close and 6300 so Purple's view that there will be none is clearly based on the lesser probability - as indeed arguably is your current thinking on gbpusd - ie in placing limit sell orders you assume the current weekly channel will hold and not break significantly to the upside. All we have is the what the greater probability may be because we don't know what will actually happen, and in both your's and Purple's analysis - this is probably not the greater probability. By the way this isn't a criticism, - it's an observation...As we all know, the greater probability does not always play out, and sometimes the assessment of what the greater probability is in trading can be subjective and different from trader to trader.

G/L

Quoting Davit
{quote} "POUND has broken out of its inverted Head and Shoulders pattern with a target to 1.63, there is one final resistance at 1.5750 beyond which there is no further resistance till 1.63. Look to buy at dips near the rising trendline.." Every trend is new Which means price could turn around at any point back to 1.50 at any round number 57 57.5 58 58.5 59 etc. To assume price has no resistance is a fallacy or statistically flawed. 1.63 is 680pips from current price.That is serious gain on weak fundamentals with looming Feds QE easing on the...
ex member
  • #345,428
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:11pm Aug 17, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting bbmac
The greater probability (based on large sample past evidence) and particularly given the distance to it is that there will be resistance between Friday's close and 6300 so Purple's view that there will be none is clearly based on the lesser probability - as indeed arguably is your current thinking on gbpusd - ie in placing limit sell orders you assume the current weekly channel will hold and not break significantly to the upside. All we have is the what the greater probability may be because we don't know what will actually happen, and in both your's...

I didn't mean to criticize your post its just that we get posts similar to websites telling what is going to happen at what exact pivot ect.
People get so caught up in this mind game that forget simple fact that price is unpredictable.
My limit edge is assuming on my part that price has been in a channel since March 2013 and fundamentally I see no real factors propelling pound beyond 57.Not that it can't happen but probability of it is small.That is my edge and if it does not then I will exit with a loss and try again.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #345,429
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:22pm Aug 17, 2013 12:22pm
I agree that price is unpredictable. I make no such prediction about what is going to happen at what exact pivot exactly for this reason and because I don't have to as prediction is not what my edge is based on. Potential support or resistance factors and their confluence are exactly that - ' potential ' support/resistance factors, and it is only price's action at them (and any other analytical tools that may tell us things about price that price action alone cannot) that can then tell us whether there exists a greater probability of a break of them, or a bounce from them. It is not always possible to guage the probability (greater or otherwise) of such.

G/L

Quoting Davit
{quote} I didn't mean to criticize your post its just that we get posts similar to websites telling what is going to happen at what exact pivot ect. People get so caught up in this mind game that forget simple fact that price is unpredictable. My limit edge is assuming on my part that price has been in a channel since March 2013 and fundamentally I see no real factors propelling pound beyond 57.Not that it can't happen but probability of it is small.That is my edge and if it does not then I will exit with a loss and try...
ex member
  • #345,430
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:42pm Aug 17, 2013 12:42pm
Bearish Hp appeared in my daily tf. Imo GU is now in sell zone. We may see sideway movement of GU in the coming week to complete wave 4. According to my projection,It will go down to 1.54xx level and then It will go up for 1.58xx level. Here is my chart....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #345,431
  • Aug 17, 2013 1:02pm Aug 17, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting fxlover11
...Here is my chart.... {image}
I would ask you if you can change back ground color of your chart ...It is very strong on eyes...
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #345,432
  • Aug 18, 2013 5:50pm Aug 18, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting taomql4
{quote} Murray math agrees ... {image}
Hi!

I don't know if it is good or bad if we agree

What is your target TP?

TBH I have 1.53 - 1.52 in mind

My entry average 1.5635, SL 50 pips
  • #345,433
  • Edited 2:07am Aug 19, 2013 1:54am | Edited 2:07am
ok for a top formation at least time being & all the limits down in the past remain as targets in gu , gold also to watch more if top forming or more channel up .so careful scalping top as start to carry out if all ok , bo & hold > gu 5607 & gold 1370.
eu as most lucrative in these pairs bo 3311 & hold as to start down perhaps .
very small diamond like swing at top ,eu & gu now & yes likely abort as in very smaller tf & still the intention bear may remain very intact with spikes up & down !!ok.
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: goldh4.png Size: 31 KB
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #345,434
  • Aug 19, 2013 2:18am Aug 19, 2013 2:18am
G/M

1hr range consolidation between last week's 5655 Hi and range bottom 5606 continues. A test on the range bottom finds support with PB candle on 5min..and then a bullish hammer close on 1hr. What's the greater probability re this range break up or down ?

No known Uk data today.

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #345,435
  • Aug 19, 2013 2:51am Aug 19, 2013 2:51am
I think Cable will go down to 1.5570 then 1.5400 .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #345,436
  • Edited 3:11am Aug 19, 2013 3:02am | Edited 3:11am
downside break of the 1hr flag finds support ...results in false break - upside break now and close above it - is this the real break of the flag ? will 1hr range 5655-5606 break to upside too ? What chance a run up to 5751 ? ...well 20 day atr is 116 atm, how many times do we see a pip move > 20 day atr ?

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr tri.jpg Size: 55 KB
ex member
  • #345,437
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:45am Aug 19, 2013 3:45am
price pulls back on 1st upside break of that 1hr flag to the flag top and finds support - what chance now an upside break of 5655-5606 1hr range ?

How much supply at / approaching the 5655 hi ?

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 57 KB
ex member
  • #345,438
  • Aug 19, 2013 3:51am Aug 19, 2013 3:51am
Our concept that we are using for years and make gain 85% telling us to go up, please have a look to the attached image.
the market is your friend, always tells you where the price is going. all the best
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5.png Size: 38 KB
  • #345,439
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:00am Aug 19, 2013 4:00am
Quoting bbmac
price pulls back on 1st upside break of that 1hr flag to the flag top and finds support - what chance now an upside break of 5655-5606 1hr range ? How much supply at / approaching the 5655 hi ? G/L {image}
what price and direction are you at?
  • #345,440
  • Aug 19, 2013 4:05am Aug 19, 2013 4:05am
Sorry, I do not understand your question.

G/L

Quoting Ulterior
{quote} what price and direction are you at?
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