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Sonic R. System

  • #56,681
  • Aug 17, 2013 9:54am Aug 17, 2013 9:54am
Quoting econbizer
Hi all, pvrsa is a viable method to trade. As long as u can achieve a positive expected value, u can make a profit. if u have a method that gives a 50% success rate, u can still make money with proper money management. Eg 1:2 risk reward. Risk $X and cut loss once stop loss is reached, take profit when u r $2X in the money. E(R) = (0.5 x -$1) + (0.5 x +$2) = +$0.5 there have been many valuable contributors on this thread & we can agree that we have learnt plenty. But instead of pouncing on a contributor when he is losing money, I think there is...
"Sharing is Caring....." - Sonicdeejay

"We r all f&Łked up traders, that's why we r still posting, while successful ones have stopped." - econbizer

I disagree. Some traders stop because they are set on their "own" method and fail to capture an audience here, and so they move on. Others, if successful when they leave, are those kind of traders that really do not care about others. They come for help, get it, and leave. They do not stay and become a part of the growing cadre of succeeding traders that remain here to help pass on to others that which was passed to them.
  • #56,682
  • Aug 17, 2013 10:10am Aug 17, 2013 10:10am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} "Sharing is Caring....." - Sonicdeejay "We r all f&Łked up traders, that's why we r still posting, while successful ones have stopped." - econbizer I disagree. Some traders stop because they are set on their "own" method and fail to capture an audience here, and so they move on. Others, if successful when they leave, are those kind of traders that really do not care about others. They come for help, get it, and leave. They do not stay and become a part of the growing cadre of succeeding traders that remain here to help pass on to others...
Words of the true master. He does is for free and still have to do with trolls. I am amazed that TAH is still sharing, not a lot of people would do after so much shit thrown at them!
There is no spoon....
  • #56,683
  • Edited 10:39am Aug 17, 2013 10:12am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting omrangassan
its ok pals ; am just asking to see what was the % DD of Tah's account ? ( as a % of the account , not in Pips ) : thats it ! anyhow : I still feel that we are start building too early so we have bigger DD , we shall find a better way to lower such DD by building positions not too early , am I wrong ? for me : I guess that using EW ( on bigger timeframes like 4h , daily ) shall help us .. correct me if worng ?! and : for those whom saying that if we got trendy markets ( supposed that we are on the long side of the trade ) : it does not mean that...
omrangassan,

It is just my opinion, but one of the few absolutes of the forex market is that we cannot know at what level and at what price the price will reverse.

This is like saying we cannot know for sure that what looks like a top or a bottom really is one until enough subsequent price history is made so that we know it was!

Therefore, no form of analysis, including EW, can do much but to suggest more upside or more downside is coming. Efforts to stretch that into predicting to where and at what point in time is folly. Some EW aficionados spend a great deal of time analyzing, charting, re-analyzing and re-charting in order to predict what they can't. If EW analysis could do that, it would be famous and all aficionados would be billionaires! They aren't.

The Sonic R. System is predicated on being elegantly simple and effective. PVSRA is also elegantly simple and effective. They are an ideal match; trade style and analysis style.

I know you are not pushing EW here, nor are you insisting it has accurate predictive value. Yet, you believe there to be a way to use EW to clue the trader when it is too early to start building and when it is time to start building. So, I suggest you work on that. Determine if it can be done, and if it can be done in a way that is also elegantly simple and effective. Do your experimenting. When and if you believe you've identified such a way, then start posting your trades using it as a demonstration for others to start becoming acquainted with. This is what we did with PVSRA, too.
  • #56,684
  • Aug 17, 2013 10:30am Aug 17, 2013 10:30am
Quoting 00ive
Hi sonicers just wanted to share the way i have built my GU position. After setting first couple of seeds I am trying to use stop orders every other position This helps with DD and hopefully orders will be hit on the run for profits. Unfortunately when market is ranging like this stop orders are hit any way at a slightly worse price. Just an idea that we might be able to work with (Stop orders marked with an arrow on LHS) Just for the record +1+1++1+1+999999999999 on the jmn5611 posts {image}
Quoting wingate
Good for you 00live that's the way to go! Geez at last somebody else is using a little "grey matter"
Gray Matter

Using "gray matter" involves deciding what of acceptable approaches best suits the trader and using it/them instead of an unacceptable approaches.

Placing pending orders at levels you are comfortable with, so you can plant there if the MMs take the price there, is acceptable. Also acceptable is PVSRA done on M1, which means watching M1 during times when the MMs start moving price and waiting for them to push the price above/below a key SR with very notable volume, which our PVA indicators will clearly show. The former method is not "hands on". The latter method is very much "hands on". Both work. Combining them works.
  • #56,685
  • Edited 11:26am Aug 17, 2013 10:44am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting trexy123
silver bull or bear? {image}
Quoting trexy123
{quote} anyone????????????
Quoting qFish
{quote} Hi trexy123, Since this is a daily, Condisering the price action It looks like it is currently a run for proffit for previous bull building. Wait for consolidation and weakness for signs of incoming Bear before putting in your short seeds. Monitor M1 for high volume PA buying above key SR followed by heavy selling as prices gradually increase. Start building your shorts late into the game. -qFish
We are Not a Signals Service for Freeloaders

trexy,

Have you bothered to read the recent posts about gold, being as they move similarly? You didn't mention that you read them. You need to post a chart showing your own analysis and then ask for opinions.

I am getting the impression you do not bother to catch up on your reading of this thread, and that neither do you make any attempt at learning how to analyze for yourself. I am getting the impression you simply drop in here and ask your questions(s) in order to get free signals. You have been at FF for over 1.5 years, frequenting other threads. You came here early in July, though not exclusively here, and since then all you have done is ask for signals. You have never posted a single trade nor a chart indicating you have bothered to do even the most rudimentary of analysis.

We are not a signals service!

You become a Sonicer. Read, learn and practice. And show us that is what you are doing by virtue postings with charts showing your analysis and with text detailing it. Otherwise, Sonicers are going to identify you as a freeloader and ignore you.


All Sonicers,

Please abide by the above and do not provide analysis on request to anyone that does not first post in a manner that tells us they are with us, and that they are trying.

-tah
  • #56,686
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:22am Aug 17, 2013 11:22am
Thanks for the reply Tah,

I don't trade your method but it is similar in the sense that I do 'stack' positions just like you are doing. I traded this way originally (about 3 years ago) and to be honest it was the most rewarding out of anything I have tried in 5 years. I turned a Ł500 demo account into Ł4,500 in 9 months, I honestly thought I had discovered the HG.

The really BIG downside though was the long periods of drawdown associated with this method. I was only using .01/2 lot sizes but sooner or later you WILL get caught on the wrong side of a long trend and all those open positions you have are really going to test your resolve. In my honest opinion it really does not matter which method you use for picking where you place your scouts/seeds, the real art is controlling the ever increasing drawdown.

Not wishing to disrupt your thread, I just wanted to emphasise that there had been a couple of 'golden nuggets' planted on this thread recently that have gone relatively unnoticed. There really is a better way if you were to just think 'out of the box' a little. Why would you straddle yourself with all this debt when most of it is unnecessary I do not understand?

Good luck
  • #56,687
  • Edited 11:52am Aug 17, 2013 11:34am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting wingate
Thanks for the reply Tah, I don't trade your method but it is similar in the sense that I do 'stack' positions just like you are doing. I traded this way originally (about 3 years ago) and to be honest it was the most rewarding out of anything I have tried in 5 years. I turned a Ł500 demo account into Ł4,500 in 9 months, I honestly thought I had discovered the HG. The really BIG downside though was the long periods of drawdown associated with this method. I was only using .01/2 lot sizes but sooner or later you WILL get caught on the wrong side...
wingate,

The only way to controlling draw down is to meter out the seeds in such manner as to assure the "bank of pip seeds" is never stressed; like assuring you yourself are cautious about writing checks when knowing your wife might spend frivolously and extravagantly at any surprise moment.

This means trading very, very light relative to account size, especially if one is a USA trader that cannot hedge (without multiple accounts). And a lot has been expounded on this point here to date.

Now, you hint at a couple of other ideas for controlling draw down. In as much as the MMs are totally unpredictable, running prices both ways and building both ways while doing so, other than we can only know if they are bulls or bears, why not help us out a bit and teach us? Or, at least give us a good rundown on them. After all "sharing is caring.....", and doing so in order that we all can be more successful is what we here are all about. Right?

Idea sharing is not disrupting. Aggressively promoting something other than by ongoing posting of trades that prove it works is disruptive. Textually tearing down what ongoing posting of trades proves does work is disruptive. But sharing ideas is not disruptive. So, if you have a couple of ideas you consider to be good ones, please do share.

-tah
  • #56,688
  • Aug 17, 2013 11:50am Aug 17, 2013 11:50am
Ok Tah seeing as though you seem to have a similar sense of humour to me

It's really not rocket science, in fact one of your contributors laid a nugget a couple of days ago which you made no reference to Also you planted one of your own just now quote... "Now, you hint at a couple of other ideas for controlling draw down. In as much as the MMs are totally unpredictable, running prices both ways and building both ways while doing so, other than we can only know if they are bulls or bears".

Baz.
  • #56,689
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:01pm Aug 17, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting wingate
Ok Tah seeing as though you seem to have a similar sense of humour to me It's really not rocket science, in fact one of your contributors laid a nugget a couple of days ago which you made no reference to Also you planted one of your own just now quote... "Now, you hint at a couple of other ideas for controlling draw down. In as much as the MMs are totally unpredictable, running prices both ways and building both ways while doing so, other than we can only know if they are bulls or bears". Baz.
wingate,

When do you ever see someone who is trying to present an idea, in a totally explained and understandable way, do so as you are doing? Cat and mouse?

Ok, I'll bite. Now, you can begin, in earnest......

-tah
  • #56,690
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:07pm Aug 17, 2013 12:07pm
Be back in a mo, just going to make a cuppa first
  • #56,691
  • Edited 12:46pm Aug 17, 2013 12:26pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} omrangassan, I know you are not pushing EW here, nor are you insisting it has accurate predictive value. Yet, you believe there to be a way to use EW to clue the trader when it is too early to start building and when it is time to start building. So, I suggest you work on that. Determine if it can be done, and if it can be done in a way that is also elegantly simple and effective. Do your experimenting. When and if you believe you've identified such a way, then start posting your trades using it as a demonstration for others to start becoming...
Thats exactly what am about : I'm sure that EW is not a strategy in itself , what am all saying is that it will help us not to start building too early and get caught in big DD.

EW will help us to get in tune with the big framework where we can start build position slowly and smally but not too early.

Example : EW helping to built Short position in GU + EU since later last week where we can get averege price about 1.3320 , 1.5570 : lets watch next week.
Attached EW chart for UJ where we can get a better price @ 97.10 - 97.40 : lets watcg long UJ next week.

I'll post as time allows.

Omran
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.png Size: 24 KB
  • #56,692
  • Aug 17, 2013 12:53pm Aug 17, 2013 12:53pm
Ah that's better, nothing like a nice cuppa

Ok firstly I just want to say I have no axe to grind, just throwing a couple of suggestions you may want to consider and may help with drawdown. I must admit to not fully understanding your method of entries (I only started reading last week) however I must agree with 'what's his name' when he referred to this method as just another way of averaging down, it's just 'your' way of 'stacking'. If it works for you then don't let anyone else tell you otherwise.

I trade 'my own' way and to be honest, although I have a system of sorts it is very much a touchy feely 'for ever evolving' thing As I said this is not rocket science infact you may well have thought about it before, but then again your not using it to your advantage so I guess your not.

When your system indicates the 'planting of a seed/scoutess' why do you automatically open a position that could and most possibly WILL go against you incurring instant debt, why would you do that? Just a thought but 'what if' you were to lay down a 'marker' at that point instead, somewhere that may or may not be re-visited at a later date?

Another idea that you mentioned yourself quote... "The MMs are totally unpredictable, running prices both ways and building both ways while doing so, other than we can only know if they are bulls or bears". Doesn't matter, if you are also playing both ways you might just 'scoop up' 'both ways' just like them? This one is a little bit trickier a hell of a lot trickier, in fact it is still a 'work in progress' for me Play them at there own game (again 'what's his name' the guy everybody dislikes for some reason mentioned this 'hedging' I think he said) Play it both ways, this can also help with drawdown but is not easy to master however and may not fit in with your method anyway.

Anyway 'food for thought' take it or leave it as they say.

Good luck
  • #56,693
  • Aug 17, 2013 1:06pm Aug 17, 2013 1:06pm
I have been rather busy this week so not as many posts. AU update I closed my long for profit after the AU failed to rally above the supply zone. The MM's did a fake breakout short followed by a fake break out long. Now the 5min is showing the MM are bears. I will look to get short on Sunday. I do not believe the move down will be significant but time will tell It looks like the AU is in the process of bottoming see daily chart for explanation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 15min TP.jpg Size: 273 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 5min short setup.jpg Size: 205 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 4hr double top.jpg Size: 312 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU Daily Stop hunting pattern.jpg Size: 188 KB
  • #56,694
  • Aug 17, 2013 2:39pm Aug 17, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting wingate
When your system indicates the 'planting of a seed/scoutess' why do you automatically open a position that could and most possibly WILL go against you incurring instant debt, why would you do that? Just a thought but 'what if' you were to lay down a 'marker' at that point instead, somewhere that may or may not be re-visited at a later date?
Wingate, that touches on an idea I had the other day concerning EP's.

We could use "markers" as you say, and wait until the price has surpassed it by
a reasonable amount, thereby treating the marker position as a potential
support point. We could place a "stop" trade appropriate to whether the
MM's are bulls or bears that wouldn't be triggered (in most cases) until the
actual run for profit occurs. There would be no loss incurred as the price
continues the building phase, and the potential gain would still be the same as
if an EP was placed at the "tops" or "bottoms", dependent upon the direction
of our trade.

Not sure if I made myself clear, but maybe you guys can take it and run with it!

  • #56,695
  • Aug 17, 2013 3:28pm Aug 17, 2013 3:28pm
A ha at last somebody starting to think out of the box, well done you. As that egotistical twat 'Forexhard' would say it's so difficult it's hard.
  • #56,696
  • Aug 17, 2013 3:49pm Aug 17, 2013 3:49pm
I don't understand how using M1 for pvsra is looked at as logical. I mean maybe if you're going for like 20 pips or something like that?

But the lower the time frame, the more false signals. It's always like that and i don't know how it would be "different this time"
  • #56,697
  • Aug 17, 2013 5:46pm Aug 17, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting Ck87
I don't understand how using M1 for pvsra is looked at as logical. I mean maybe if you're going for like 20 pips or something like that? But the lower the time frame, the more false signals. It's always like that and i don't know how it would be "different this time"
Then you have missed the V part of PVSRA. It is not so simple as false signals. We are trying to figure what MMs are up to.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,698
  • Aug 17, 2013 6:12pm Aug 17, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} Then you have missed the V part of PVSRA. It is not so simple as false signals. We are trying to figure what MMs are up to. -qFish
Right and how does a 1 minute chart, which is obviously filled with the most noise, have anything to do with knowing what the MM's are up to?
  • #56,699
  • Aug 17, 2013 6:44pm Aug 17, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Right and how does a 1 minute chart, which is obviously filled with the most noise, have anything to do with knowing what the MM's are up to?
Although the volume we analyze is not the cumulative volume of the market as a whole, any significant buying and selling is the result from the big players. Volume on your brokerage account is the best estimation of this. Combine this with analysis of price action around key SR levels then you can begin to see the hands of the MMs. It is an identification of the position building of the MMs. Are you getting the idea yet? If you do more research market maker and market manipulation, you may begin to understand and realize the price action before you is not simply a representation of supply and demand but rather a facade that the MMs have created to manipulate trader psychology for their best interest to making profit. What you see with patterns price action and typical rules of setting stop loss levels or any fundamentals that you may think make sense is simply a brian washing manipulation to get u the trader to do what they the MMs want. This is merely the tip of the iceberg.

-qFish
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #56,700
  • Aug 17, 2013 8:29pm Aug 17, 2013 8:29pm
Personally, I think all markets are completely rigged. I'm not just into the volume analysis.

I'm a PSRA trader To each his own.
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