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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #345,381
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:02am Aug 16, 2013 4:02am
I think mr T has hit the nail on the head..the direction for cable is still neutral if u ask me..both targets hi and low are possible...as tautrader has pointed out

there is 4hr bearish diverence seen which is building up..so still leening towards south but cant say with conviction
  • #345,382
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:28am Aug 16, 2013 4:28am
Pullback then off 5653-yesterday's hi...what chance an upside follow thru on yesterday's bullish daily thrust candle ? 5751 swing hi the bulls target ? Time will tell. Daily chart below shows the fib extensions of last Daily swing.

Technical and increasingly the fundamental picture is bullish for £ right now. These strong trends are as double edged sword of course in that there is a higher likelihood of an extended pullback at some point. In order of probability right now with what we know technically and fundamentally at this point - the following are in decreasing orders of probability - ie most likely is no.1

Only 23% of 20 day atr covered so far today, 80% of 20 week atr so far this week but 108% of 20 month atr so far this month.

1. generally more upside
2. ranging in the 5751-4811 area
3. a collapse and break below 4811

Some U.s data later

G/L
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ex member
  • #345,383
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:43am Aug 16, 2013 4:43am
If the greater probability plays out (re post above) and the so called 5751-4811 channel does break to the upside, then in descending order of probability (ie most probable first) a pullback to the channel from that then topside of it will result in:

1. support in the channel and a 2nd break up from it
2. a return to the channel and ranging in it
3. an opposite collapse thru the channel bottom at 4811

Only aggressive tapering from the fed or an as yet unknown event risk can probably alter these probabilities?

G/L
ex member
  • #345,384
  • Aug 16, 2013 4:52am Aug 16, 2013 4:52am
I just see the Bias is still positive it's building a base to shoot higher the US data will not be much of a catalyst , the Bias has always been higher all week there are to many shorts who have been caught out and marketmakers are not going to let them go!!
  • #345,385
  • Edited 5:35am Aug 16, 2013 5:11am | Edited 5:35am
After the last short hit sl before the last crazy spike not placed any & now waiting the top formation again to take action . anyway the short good signal before also aborted & trend change possibility increased . anyway bottom formation continues before if change actually be possible , not thinking yet though but crazy continues one after the other .
specially gold trying up & bottom formation also there too .

gu last limit for down now remain at reaction high 5751 but reaction low & play down great remain very intact though till rh breaks up , so if bottom formation or just the waist one intact & waiting for action !
eu , very ok at top formation even more crazy up like gu & gold for most down !!

eurgbp to continue fall towards 0.83** & more & so eu to more down than gu if or opposite for up.

Signal for gold down start with ( crazy may not stop yet ) breaks limits 1346 &44, gu 5594 & 74, eu the same 3189.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #345,386
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:13am Aug 16, 2013 5:13am
Today could be a 200-300 pip breakout, but also could be a wip to the trendline and crash down with all the stops taken out. If it comes crashing from 1.57 - that will transform to the next week, but eventually - its going to explode soon
  • #345,387
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:19am Aug 16, 2013 5:19am
I think GBPUSD move is overdone, they are pricing extraordinary economic growth from UK and therefor a sooner than later rate hike and normalization of BoE policies. The move went from point A to B, and went overdone, any doubt and there will be doubt will undone part of it. so I think a short
  • #345,388
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:29am Aug 16, 2013 5:29am
Quoting Ulterior
Today could be a 200-300 pip breakout, but also could be a wip to the trendline and crash down with all the stops taken out. If it comes crashing from 1.57 - that will transform to the next week, but eventually - its going to explode soon
im looking for a weekly pin bar
  • #345,389
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:31am Aug 16, 2013 5:31am
Quoting Ulterior
Today could be a 200-300 pip breakout, but also could be a wip to the trendline and crash down with all the stops taken out. If it comes crashing from 1.57 - that will transform to the next week, but eventually - its going to explode soon
Any reason for such a bit move today?

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  • #345,390
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:40am Aug 16, 2013 5:40am
Quoting blobsaudio
{quote} Any reason for such a bit move today? {image}
daily range has a tendency to overshoot and undershoot - right? I am basing my thoughts on break of a trendline, look at my previous posts to find a chart
  • #345,391
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:45am Aug 16, 2013 5:45am
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} daily range has a tendency to overshoot and undershoot - right? I am basing my thoughts on break of a trendline, look at my previous posts to find a chart
Overshoot yes, but 300 pips on cable in one day currently sounds somewhat pie in the sky.
  • #345,392
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:46am Aug 16, 2013 5:46am
Quoting blobsaudio
{quote} Overshoot yes, but 300 pips on cable in one day currently sounds somewhat pie in the sky.
lol, IDK, 200-300-100 I dont care I will close my trade when the signal develops, I dont use any absolute TP
  • #345,393
  • Aug 16, 2013 5:48am Aug 16, 2013 5:48am
Quoting BabyBrooke
I think GBPUSD move is overdone, they are pricing extraordinary economic growth from UK and therefor a sooner than later rate hike and normalization of BoE policies. The move went from point A to B, and went overdone, any doubt and there will be doubt will undone part of it. so I think a short

Don't think Look !!
  • #345,394
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:39am Aug 16, 2013 6:39am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} im looking for a weekly pin bar
Naaah, 60:40 for .5750 today
  • #345,395
  • Aug 16, 2013 6:50am Aug 16, 2013 6:50am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Naaah, 60:40 for .5750 today
i think it is 90:10 if u ask me..
  • #345,396
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:08am Aug 16, 2013 7:08am
Good day,

Traders looking to short should take their time on this one, I think. There are stuff higher up that may want to get visited. Not saying on this leg, but even 1.6445 to the upside is not entirely impossible. I know - it sounds far fetched. And that is exactly where they want you to be. I am in no way suggesting otherwise - so please trade your plan.

I'm revising mine to a conservative one on this round.

Regards

Edit - there will off course be plenty opportunity for longs and shorts if day trading. I'm referring to an enter and hold scenario.
  • #345,397
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:55am Aug 16, 2013 7:55am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i think it is 90:10 if u ask me..
I thought you were referring to current week ...
  • #345,398
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:58am Aug 16, 2013 7:58am
hmm, very strange price action, I am starting to doubt my this weeks target - expected a bigger reaction after the news...
  • #345,399
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:00am Aug 16, 2013 8:00am
Quoting Faller
{quote} Absolutely the best post of the day - thanks for your honesty and for sharing a part of your story. I agree with keeping it professional and on topic - Cheers to you and your mother.....and of course the goats and other animals - but not the butcher.....because she did not make any money from him! All the best.... Faller
See I say I know nice guy in there. Wishing many goats and cows in your life. Thanks.
I making the big monies, so far +10 pips. Follow me if you nice guy...
  • #345,400
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:03am Aug 16, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Ulterior
hmm, very strange price action, I am starting to doubt my this weeks target - expected a bigger reaction after the news...
Then that should be VERY telling for you.
There's always money in the banana stand.
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