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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,941
  • Aug 15, 2013 1:51am Aug 15, 2013 1:51am
Quoting smikester
Some bearish divergence on this consolidation and so I'm wary. We may be due a test of 97.75 which wasn't properly tested on the way up. Looking to the new York session now and the Usd news in a couple of hours, for direction. I won't be closing my longs because we can see on the daily at the end of June and the end of July, this area is a staging post.
Area currently being tested.
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  • #35,942
  • Aug 15, 2013 2:41am Aug 15, 2013 2:41am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} atm, "easy" trade to many will be rounded top -- makes .uj look like it's about to roll over. too obvious. obv things usually don't happen. the PA of the last 24+ hrs is unusual for the normally meandering .uj
iqyu5an vouched for you? Did you thank him? A vouch from such a respected trader is valuable. Now you know you are respected you should work to be worthy of this respect.

On the subject of round tops, this is only on the hourly and so does not hold as strongly as higher time frames, but here is some reading from someone who has done the statistical work for you: http://www.thepatternsite.com/roundingtop.html. I once was talking to an old boy who said these formations were often like a pressure cap and the break out could be dynamic.
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  • #35,943
  • Aug 15, 2013 3:18am Aug 15, 2013 3:18am
I add a small long buy stop at 97.90 as we seem to have broken out of this m15 consolidation with a retest at 97.80. My buy stop is at 97.90 and my stop loss will be at the rising trend line. If I'm wrong then my order won't even fill. If it fills then hits the trend line I'll lose a very small amount. If I'm right I might get to over 100 or even 104+. Good risk reward? You betcha!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy130815m15.JPG Size: 68 KB
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  • #35,944
  • Aug 15, 2013 3:33am Aug 15, 2013 3:33am
UJ seem making a correction to 98.00 and then DOWN!
  • #35,945
  • Aug 15, 2013 4:50am Aug 15, 2013 4:50am
Quoting anhtuan
UJ seem making a correction to 98.00 and then DOWN!

What's your target?
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  • #35,946
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:23am Aug 15, 2013 5:23am
Quoting smikester
{quote} What's your target?
My first target is 97.45, this is where I see the support.
  • #35,947
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:27am Aug 15, 2013 5:27am
Quoting anhtuan
{quote} My first target is 97.45, this is where I see the support.
Where does that number comes from ?
Check an H1 chart and You'll come to idea that the first important level protecting this upside run is 97.55-6 level and if it holds we should get an test of the 99-99.3 levels.
  • #35,948
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:32am Aug 15, 2013 5:32am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Where does that number comes from ? Check an H1 chart and You'll come to idea that the first important level protecting this upside run is 97.55-6 level and if it holds we should get an test of the 99-99.3 levels.
thats 38 % fibo i got the same number in my book
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #35,949
  • Aug 15, 2013 5:59am Aug 15, 2013 5:59am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Where does that number comes from ? Check an H1 chart and You'll come to idea that the first important level protecting this upside run is 97.55-6 level and if it holds we should get an test of the 99-99.3 levels.
Yah, at least there is some ideas where market will go ! I see there is a support zone at 97.45 and 97.55, this is the breakout begin.
  • #35,950
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:07am Aug 15, 2013 6:07am
Quoting balanced2012
{quote} thats 38 % fibo i got the same number in my book
That is a good enough reason.
However a look at the chart, especially on 4hr, shows that 97.60 is a pretty firm support and if you wanted to be sure of reaching a first target you might choose 97.65 for instance.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,951
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:36am Aug 15, 2013 6:36am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} That is a good enough reason. However a look at the chart, especially on 4hr, shows that 97.60 is a pretty firm support and if you wanted to be sure of reaching a first target you might choose 97.65 for instance.
That was the point Don't trade fibs, pivots etc to THE point, trade what's on the charts.
  • #35,952
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:54am Aug 15, 2013 6:54am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} That was the point Don't trade fibs, pivots etc to THE point, trade what's on the charts.
That exactly what I am trying to do
  • #35,953
  • Aug 15, 2013 7:32am Aug 15, 2013 7:32am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} Not sure about going down big. But in the short term at least this is going 99.

come on 99 baby
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #35,954
  • Aug 15, 2013 7:37am Aug 15, 2013 7:37am
Figures I go against my plan and this happens. Awesome.
  • #35,955
  • Aug 15, 2013 7:48am Aug 15, 2013 7:48am
This rally isn't convincing to me... Something says to fade this. Equities dropping big today and I think USDJPY catches up with them.
  • #35,956
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:16am Aug 15, 2013 8:16am
Trapped longs above 98.45...
  • #35,957
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:17am Aug 15, 2013 8:17am
Fundamentals are always the basic, then comes the technical side.
  • #35,958
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:23am Aug 15, 2013 8:23am
Quoting randerson
This rally isn't convincing to me... Something says to fade this. Equities dropping big today and I think USDJPY catches up with them.
Me too, what I saw is market in the correction state (expanding).
  • #35,959
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:32am Aug 15, 2013 8:32am
Dollar strength this week. Break and retest of yesterday's high as New York session buys:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy130815m30.JPG Size: 82 KB
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  • #35,960
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:49am Aug 15, 2013 8:49am
Up day London, up day New York, up day New York session. You can speculate all you like whether it will go to 95. I think it might as well, but in the meantime:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy130815m15.JPG Size: 130 KB


A pending order above the tell will be taken up if we are going up. I place another long at about 98.41, oops it's already been taken. I'm going to leave this thread alone now. Look at my previous posts. See you at 140...
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