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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,881
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:00am Aug 14, 2013 5:00am
I don't get all the interest in Eur/Jpy? When Usd > Eur > Jpy why trade the weaker option? Eur/Usd is sitting rather heavily (imho) on 1.3240
Gone to a better place
  • #35,882
  • Aug 14, 2013 5:58am Aug 14, 2013 5:58am
Some bearish divergence on this consolidation and so I'm wary. We may be due a test of 97.75 which wasn't properly tested on the way up. Looking to the new York session now and the Usd news in a couple of hours, for direction.

I won't be closing my longs because we can see on the daily at the end of June and the end of July, this area is a staging post.
Gone to a better place
  • #35,883
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:05am Aug 14, 2013 6:05am

Quoting 1candlepower
{quote}... anything that happens to me that makes me think i know what i'm doing makes me lose money! ...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,884
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:18am Aug 14, 2013 6:18am
I like the idea of the news giving us a new high between 98.6-98.8 and then we start the correction toward 97.5

Hoping to cash in on this long and get a good point of entry for the retrace.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,885
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:19am Aug 14, 2013 6:19am
sell position for 50 pip
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  • #35,886
  • Aug 14, 2013 6:43am Aug 14, 2013 6:43am
waiting more and more sellers...
  • #35,887
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:07am Aug 14, 2013 7:07am
Quoting prototip
waiting more and more sellers...
Already short? You were calling HH earlier

Quoting prototip
easy 98500, maybe 98800...
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,888
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:12am Aug 14, 2013 7:12am
İ am long, İ mean that coming more seller price going up...
  • #35,889
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:14am Aug 14, 2013 7:14am
Quoting prototip
İ am long, İ mean that coming more seller price going up...
Gotcha... 15 mins. and price will be going nuts.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,890
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:25am Aug 14, 2013 7:25am
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Gotcha... 15 mins. and price will be going nuts.
more i look at this as it sits confined between the 50 and 61.8 fibos of last weeks downmove, i see the extended 4th wave of a higher order 3rd that can reach about 102 before significant retrace.

early expected it to hit the 76.4 fib (98.95) and pull back, but a lot of energy is stored up by now so i think a full retrace to 99.94 is coming...

will see in a few (have removed my TP just below 98.95)
  • #35,891
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:29am Aug 14, 2013 7:29am
Quoting prototip
long from 98,050, stop 97400, target 98800...
changing stop to 98,050...
  • #35,892
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:35am Aug 14, 2013 7:35am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} more i look at this as it sits confined between the 50 and 61.8 fibos of last weeks downmove, i see the extended 4th wave of a higher order 3rd that can reach about 102 before significant retrace. early expected it to hit the 76.4 fib (98.95) and pull back, but a lot of energy is stored up by now so i think a full retrace to 99.94 is coming... will see in a few (have removed my TP just below 98.95)
ppi a little $ neg, but .uj still respecting the inner tl, and the longer it consolidates, the farther it will go when it breaks 61.8
  • #35,893
  • Aug 14, 2013 7:55am Aug 14, 2013 7:55am
And I'm long again from the same exact spot, for the 3rd time today, sitting at b/e, hoping we'll get the HH I've been looking for all day.

Expecting it even less than the first 2 times, but I refuse to short right here right now. And we weren't really moving down after the initial spike.

In short, I'm long from 98.1 again.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,894
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:02am Aug 14, 2013 8:02am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} ppi a little $ neg, but .uj still respecting the inner tl, and the longer it consolidates, the farther it will go when it breaks 61.8

I didn't see that 61.8!

This is what I'm looking at now - 5 minute chart, dollar seems stronger now the dust has settled.

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Gone to a better place
  • #35,895
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:24am Aug 14, 2013 8:24am
Maybe 4th time will be a charm...
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,896
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:45am Aug 14, 2013 9:45am
Quoting livethedream
Maybe 4th time will be a charm... {image}
...yes. and to the BOJ: you know you want to, and you know you're going to -- (go to 104 and beyond!)
  • #35,897
  • Aug 14, 2013 9:56am Aug 14, 2013 9:56am
Harmonic butterfly pattern will take USDJPY down to 94-95 before heading north again. We may briefly spike up above today's high over the next two days, however this spike will only be to take out stops before heading south. Sell at 98.00, targeting 95.00 where I'll place a Buy and target 100.00 over the coming month.
  • #35,898
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:04am Aug 14, 2013 10:04am
1H timeframe. trend on my chart shows up, so plan to go long 98.36.
use leverage with caution...
  • #35,899
  • Aug 14, 2013 11:11am Aug 14, 2013 11:11am
Quoting randerson
Harmonic butterfly pattern will take USDJPY down to 94-95 before heading north again. We may briefly spike up above today's high over the next two days, however this spike will only be to take out stops before heading south. Sell at 98.00, targeting 95.00 where I'll place a Buy and target 100.00 over the coming month.
I used to think that as well, but I see two scenarios unfolding.

The current consolidation is very crucial to which direction this will go.

Either this will go down to 95.3 testing the bottom trend line before going north.

Or the current 98.5 level will break, seeing as the BC leg completed on Aug 9, and go north and making new highs at 104-105.

I personally am betting on the latter, seeing as Cable and EurUsd seem to be dollar bullish.
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  • #35,900
  • Aug 14, 2013 11:36am Aug 14, 2013 11:36am
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} I used to think that as well, but I see two scenarios unfolding. The current consolidation is very crucial to which direction this will go. Either this will go down to 95.3 testing the bottom trend line before going north. Or the current 98.5 level will break, seeing as the BC leg completed on Aug 9, and go north and making new highs at 104-105. I personally am betting on the latter, seeing as Cable and EurUsd seem to be dollar bullish. {image} {image}
I see your viewpoint and am very bearish on the yen long term. However, I believe the market will shake out weak longs by probing under the last major low @95.80. This also correlates with probes above 1.34 on the EUR/USD before heading lower under 1.30. I just don't think the market is going to be friendly and throw us an easy trade all the way up above 100 without a little shakeout first Thoughts?
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