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  • #3,541
  • Aug 12, 2013 4:13am Aug 12, 2013 4:13am
Dear HDA,

do you see 0.9400 as a 38,2% retracement from high (07/10/13) - low (08/08/13) and then bearish continuation of the trend or just as ''first stop station'' on the bullish road?

Will post my graph when I get home..
  • #3,542
  • Aug 12, 2013 4:42am Aug 12, 2013 4:42am
Should .9290 be broken to the upside, it is "clear sailing" to the .9700 area. Plenty of spots to take profits along the way.
Yes, I know.... we have to get there yet. But it doesn't hurt to have a plan laid out.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #3,543
  • Aug 12, 2013 6:43am Aug 12, 2013 6:43am
Good day,

I have a target of 0.90885 to the downside. I have entered a small short @ 0.92765 and will start adding as we go.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfh4.png Size: 80 KB
  • #3,544
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:33am Aug 12, 2013 7:33am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, I have a target of 0.90885 to the downside. I have entered a small short @ 0.92765 and will start adding as we go. Regards {image}
Hello TauTrader. Just out of curiosity, what is it that you see about this pair at this time to short it? If you look at the D1 time frame and the cycles, you would find, I think, that this pair is in the "Demand" part of the cycle. Just curious as to what you are seeing that I may not be seeing.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #3,545
  • Aug 12, 2013 7:55am Aug 12, 2013 7:55am
Quoting lebleup
{quote} Hello TauTrader. Just out of curiosity, what is it that you see about this pair at this time to short it? If you look at the D1 time frame and the cycles, you would find, I think, that this pair is in the "Demand" part of the cycle. Just curious as to what you are seeing that I may not be seeing.
Good day to you, lebleup

I'm not looking at the pair as such. This is more a correlation trade based on the EU. I'm working on balance levels. Since EU is in early sell zone - Swissy will be in early buy zone - as you have pointed out. But it goes deeper. GU has some unfinished work higher up. EU as well. GU @ 1.5845 is marked higher up - there are also targets much lower than the current price..

But 4 out of every 5 retail traders are currently short on EU ( over 15 000 positions) and on GU, the level of retail shorts has not been this high since we flew up to 1.6200. I cannot put to words exactly. I'm not one for all the forex jargon. See my avatar...i'm dumb. CHF could rise to 0.94470 without issue - but somewhere in future, 0.90870 will be.

So - entering short and adding every 100 or so, could work out nicely in the end.

Could be months..

Regards
  • #3,546
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:41am Aug 12, 2013 8:41am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, lebleup I'm not looking at the pair as such. This is more a correlation trade based on the EU. I'm working on balance levels. Since EU is in early sell zone - Swissy will be in early buy zone - as you have pointed out. But it goes deeper. GU has some unfinished work higher up. EU as well. GU @ 1.5845 is marked higher up - there are also targets much lower than the current price.. But 4 out of every 5 retail traders are currently short on EU ( over 15 000 positions) and on GU, the level of retail shorts has not been this...
I see. Thank you for sharing what you are thinking. It shows that there are many ways to trade. All the variables make it interesting indeed. I guess this is why it can be called... a "market". Many ideas causing movement which can be capitalized from. Have a good day today!
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #3,547
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:41am Aug 12, 2013 8:41am
As I promised....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfdaily.png Size: 46 KB
  • #3,548
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:47am Aug 12, 2013 8:47am
Quoting zodiak
Dear HDA, do you see 0.9400 as a 38,2% retracement from high (07/10/13) - low (08/08/13) and then bearish continuation of the trend or just as ''first stop station'' on the bullish road? Will post my graph when I get home..
@zodiak:

See why I say take some profit at every resistance level. Now I'm looking for the next entry to go long.

I was taught how to trade:

Support & Resistance
Buy and Sell Zones
Consolidation
Fibonacci numbers
Fibonacci Convergences
Gartley
Pennants
Harmonic Vibrations
Reversal/King's Crown/Head & Shoulders

I don't trade using fibs - but to answer your question using your style of trading, yes it is the .382 retracement and when a high or low is taking out, the market almost always retrace to the .382, even though the market likes to retrace to the .618

But my style of trading requires that I exit the trade at the Neutral Zone which is .9400

  • #3,549
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:59am Aug 12, 2013 8:59am
Quoting lebleup
{quote} I see. Thank you for sharing what you are thinking. It shows that there are many ways to trade. All the variables make it interesting indeed. I guess this is why it can be called... a "market". Many ideas causing movement which can be capitalized from. Have a good day today!
Indeed, kind sir

Wish you all the best

Regards
  • #3,550
  • Edited 11:05am Aug 12, 2013 9:22am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting zodiak
As I promised.... {image}
@zodiak:

I'm just seeing your chart. I wrote my response before seeing your chart, but yes - exactly. So looking on the daily - thefirst resistance level was0.9280 so you should've locked in 80pips depending on the amount of lots you entered with.

If you only entered with 1 lot then you sell half of that 1 lot and look to re-enter again at support buying again with either half the lot you sold or 1 more lot if you sold a lot on exit at resistance.

So as it stands - 80 pips should have been locked with you still in the trade up 52pips on the rest of the trade that you have open and running.

Based on your stop loss 0.9168 as you have indicated - you would have already covered your 32pip risk on your trade and would be now risk free and stress free in your trade.

Quoting zodiak
bought 0.9200...target 0.9800...SL 0.9168
I have 30 more pips to lock in to recover my 110pip loss that I made last week Thursday.

Please see post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post6886875

Happy Trading



Question: What is the next resistance level to take profit?
  • #3,551
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:31am Aug 12, 2013 9:31am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, lebleup I'm not looking at the pair as such. This is more a correlation trade based on the EU. I'm working on balance levels. Since EU is in early sell zone - Swissy will be in early buy zone - as you have pointed out. But it goes deeper. GU has some unfinished work higher up. EU as well. GU @ 1.5845 is marked higher up - there are also targets much lower than the current price.. But 4 out of every 5 retail traders are currently short on EU ( over 15 000 positions) and on GU, the level of retail shorts has not been this...
Hi Tau. 4 out of every 5 retail traders are short EU? May I ask, where does this figure come from? My COT charts and Oanda don't agree with that figure? I'm not trying to be contentious, it's just that I would be interested in knowing your source.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,552
  • Aug 12, 2013 9:42am Aug 12, 2013 9:42am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @zodiak: I'm just seeing your chart. I wrote my response before seeing your chart, but yes - exactly. So looking on the daily - thefirst resistance level was0.9280 so you should've locked in 80pips depending on the amount of lots you entered with. If you only entered with 1 lot then you sell half of that 1 lot and look to re-enter again at support buying again with either half the lot you sold or 1 more lot if you sold a lot on exit at resistance. So as it stands - 80 pips should have been locked with you still in the trade up 52pips on...
Hi HDA. I would have to say in the .9350 range looks to be some traffic.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #3,553
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:22am Aug 12, 2013 10:22am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @zodiak: I'm just seeing your chart. I wrote my response before seeing your chart, but yes - exactly. So looking on the daily - thefirst resistance level was0.9280 so you should've locked in 80pips depending on the amount of lots you entered with. If you only entered with 1 lot then you sell half of that 1 lot and look to re-enter again at support buying again with either half the lot you sold or 1 more lot if you sold a lot on exit at resistance. So as it stands - 80 pips should have been locked with you still in the trade up 52pips on...

Dear HDA,

I must say talking with you is like taking some sort of ''mini trading course''...your trading logic is great. I thank you for that...

..my trading style is somewhat different...based on 4h candle (USDCHF, of course) which does not have lower shadow (sign for reversal) and 32,8% Fib retrace on 1h....I actually took another long...by now I have to open position and I will add on it as long as prior weekly low is not taken out...hopefully pair moves 100 pips up, then I will put SL on BE....

  • #3,554
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:26am Aug 12, 2013 10:26am
Answer: 50% Fib retrace, by me


  • #3,555
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:38am Aug 12, 2013 10:38am
Quoting zodiak
{quote} Dear HDA, I must say talking with you is like taking some sort of ''mini trading course''...your trading logic is great. I thank you for that... ..my trading style is somewhat different...based on 4h candle (USDCHF, of course) which does not have lower shadow (sign for reversal) and 32,8% Fib retrace on 1h....I actually took another long...by now I have to open position and I will add on it as long as prior weekly low is not taken out...hopefully pair moves 100 pips up, then I will put SL on BE....
@zodiak:

I completely understand your methodology and if I may suggest, based on my experience in the market, my priority when I place a trade is to first cover my risk on the trade so that if some sudden news or act of god happens, I'm covered. This discipline will always keep your account in the green.

The lesson learnt here is at all times, protect yourself, because anything can happen and when anything does happen, you never want to be left thinking -

OMG! - If I had only
OMG! WTH (what the hell)

You want to be saying -

I'm glad I did
It's a good thing I'm always consistent when taking my profits at every support and resistance level



My two cents worth.
  • #3,556
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:53am Aug 12, 2013 10:53am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Hi Tau. 4 out of every 5 retail traders are short EU? May I ask, where does this figure come from? My COT charts and Oanda don't agree with that figure? I'm not trying to be contentious, it's just that I would be interested in knowing your source.
good day to you, Smikester

All easier in hindsight at the end - but this was the situation going into the weekend.

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_ana...timent=EUR/USD

I do not use this as a decision making tool. It's just the fact that everyone is short at present...

regards
  • #3,557
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:55am Aug 12, 2013 10:55am
Quoting lebleup
{quote} Hi HDA. I would have to say in the .9350 range looks to be some traffic.
Quoting zodiak
Answer: 50% Fib retrace, by me
TP levels:

0.9280

0.9330

AND FINALLY

0.9400

Happy Trading

  • #3,558
  • Aug 12, 2013 11:09am Aug 12, 2013 11:09am
Long Orders triggered 0.9250:

1st TP 0.9280
2nd TP 0.9330

Still holding original trade from 0.9200 to 0.9400
  • #3,559
  • Aug 12, 2013 6:50pm Aug 12, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting HDA
Long Orders triggered 0.9250: 1st TP 0.9280 2nd TP 0.9330 Still holding original trade from 0.9200 to 0.9400

Some nice trading my friend.

Just a question on your reentry if you would oblige.

Would you consider it an entry based simply on demand, a pa entry based on 38.2 retrace, or bids at 92.50?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #3,560
  • Aug 12, 2013 10:22pm Aug 12, 2013 10:22pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @zodiak: I completely understand your methodology and if I may suggest, based on my experience in the market, my priority when I place a trade is to first cover my risk on the trade so that if some sudden news or act of god happens, I'm covered. This discipline will always keep your account in the green. The lesson learnt here is at all times, protect yourself, because anything can happen and when anything does happen, you never want to be left thinking - OMG! - If I had only OMG! WTH (what the hell) You want to be saying - I'm glad I did...
Just excellent information. Disciplined thinking all the way around. Now, the challenge..... under ALL circumstances, "like a robot"... have this same mechanical way of trading without wavering. I am sure you (HDA) had to work at this for a long time in order to make it a habit.

Thank you for sharing. As I have said not so many days ago, 'This is like looking over the shoulder of a professional trader while hearing his thought process while contemplating, entering, taking profits as a target is approaching, then exiting when the trade plan has finally come to fruition'.

Excellent. Just really good stuff! Thanks again.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
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