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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,561
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:03am Jul 25, 2013 9:03am
Quoting egkid
{quote} i think so i sell [email protected] let's watch

Its still worth it in my opinion to do the same thing you did before.
  • #2,562
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:13am Jul 25, 2013 9:13am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook This pair has been stuck in almost a 70-90 pip range for too long. The only times where this happens is around christmas times. Even after 2 days of waiting for this pair to make a move, there has not been any substantial progress. From the low of 2900 we have a wedge shaped formation, As long as the boundaries of this wedge are being respected and at the same time the boundaries of the circles are getting respected, we should be seeing a thrust that is heading down coming soon. In a previous forecast there was a mention about an...
very interesting, but where to put a stop loss?
  • #2,563
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:57am Jul 25, 2013 9:57am
Quoting fibotrader30
{quote} very interesting, but where to put a stop loss?
1st Choice
Lot size small:
Sell @ 3225-3250 region
Stop loss 3310
Target 3050

2nd Choice
Tighter trade
Can be with bigger lot size.
Sell @ 3225-3250 region
stoploss 3270
target #1 3160
Target #2 3050-3070 region

Wait till after 11:00 AM, another 15-20 minutes to put these trades.

Myself I prefer to go with the 1st choice and collect profit at 20 pip intervals.

This is what I do

I calculate how much is the 2% to 5% lots in total I can afford, then lets say if my money management says that the maximum lots that I can afford is 10 lots with choice #1, then what I do is this:

Instead of putting the 10 lots at 3225 and putting a stoploss at 3310,

I put 1 lot at 3225 and wait.
If it goes for me for 20 pips, then that is great, I collect my profit.

If it doesnt go for 20 pips and starts going up, I keep my 3225 order still in the market.

Lets say that I was wrong and it went to 3270 and it went slightly above it but not to 3310, then at that level I put another lot

Now if I am totally wrong and it has hit my stoploss then I loose with 2 lots instead of 10

Now if at 3270-3290 it goes for me for 10-20 pips, I exit my position at 3270-3290 and keep my position at 3225.

I set a target of about maybe 10 pips on that 3225 order, because I know it was a wrong choice, and then I decide how to put the other 9 lots.

If it starts accelerating down from 3270 very fast to 3250, then I put another one at 3250 and I extend the target of 3225 to 20 pips, because I know now the impulse wave is starting, but at a higher level.

If my 3250 order becomes profitable at 3230, but price action does not go beyond 3230, then I exit my 3250 position and keep my 3225.

I keep my 3225 as long as I can to become profitable.

Thats how I trade.

I never go all 10 lots at once.

If you look at it, after about a while, its still 10 lots but all at different times and different spots.

One in a while I have one lot that is lucky and survives a 50 pip sudden drop and becomes profitable. I keep those orders for 100-200 pips, but they are small sizes. Most of my orders I get out at 10-25 pip intervals.

If market is not going the way I want it, I usually exit anything that is profitable. I have exited orders that are 0.5 pips up to 20-25 pips. Very seldom I have orders that I let them to go beyond 50 pips, but on occasion (5% of the time) they happen and that is great.

I play this game until 3050 is reached and at that time I stop putting sells.
  • #2,564
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:03am Jul 25, 2013 10:03am
Right now I am waiting for a spike up to put my order, we need one.

Quoting Kambooj
{quote} 1st Choice Lot size small: Sell @ 3225-3250 region Stop loss 3310 Target 3050 2nd Choice Tighter trade Can be with bigger lot size. Sell @ 3225-3250 region stoploss 3270 target #1 3160 Target #2 3050-3070 region Wait till after 11:00 AM, another 15-20 minutes to put these trades. Myself I prefer to go with the 1st choice and collect profit at 20 pip intervals. This is what I do I calculate how much is the 2% to 5% lots in total I can afford, then lets say if my money management says that the maximum lots that I can afford is 10 lots with...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #2,565
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:37pm Jul 26, 2013 12:37pm
I would not be on the thread starting monday and would be back around August 7th. My long term outlook on this pair remains to be a sell, with a very quick surge downwards. On the daily chart there is ample resistance at around 3300 through the trendline mesh that is shown below.


Whether we are going to hit 3350 or start turning around as is, I cant predict that with a lot of accuracy

The sprouts upwards are not decisive enough to make substantial breaks that are necessary to put this pair well into a bullish scenario, and the downward thrusts share the same kind of feeling.

All I decipher by looking at the daily chart and the RSI is that there isnt much room left for this pair to make a lot of upward movement, and any upward movement will be more unstable than its preceeding moves increasing the risk of a huge downward movement.


Two thumbs up to anybody who made any money during these times, and look forward to getting back on the thread after my vacation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,566
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:34am Aug 8, 2013 3:34am
seems EU is crawling up along the perimeters of 2 circles - near 90deg of the inner circle but the outer circle supports each drop...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,567
  • Aug 8, 2013 8:33am Aug 8, 2013 8:33am
EUR/USD Outlook

After 12 days since July 26, this pair has done very little activity (3186-3360) compared to the time that has elapsed since then. It is almost very close to a turn around point given the 4 hour chart shown below with price action hitting the circumference of the circle. Depending on how you draw the circle the 3360-3400 is going to be a high probability sell region with thrust going to at least 3100 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,568
  • Aug 10, 2013 2:07am Aug 10, 2013 2:07am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook After 12 days since July 26, this pair has done very little activity (3186-3360) compared to the time that has elapsed since then. It is almost very close to a turn around point given the 4 hour chart shown below with price action hitting the circumference of the circle. Depending on how you draw the circle the 3360-3400 is going to be a high probability sell region with thrust going to at least 3100 level. {image}

MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #2,569
  • Aug 13, 2013 9:42am Aug 13, 2013 9:42am
EUR/USD Outlook

The EUR had started its DECISIVE descend at around highs of 3300 few days ago. Today after the drop from 3316 level, the intention of going down is more confirmed. This descend is a major move just like end of august of 2011 where a major trend shift started to occur.

For the past 2 years Every year usually sometimes within the month of August we have experienced a trend shift on the daily chart. This year the daily structure with the trendlines mentioned in a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post6849728

is no exception either.

3070 is the first place where momentum will slow down.
If momentum starts to become stronger as we approach that level, then we probably wont be slowing down till the low of 2750 is surpassed. But for now 3070 is the first target to look for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,570
  • Aug 13, 2013 10:49am Aug 13, 2013 10:49am
Quoting kambooj
eur/usd outlook the eur had started its decisive descend at around highs of 3300 few days ago. Today after the drop from 3316 level, the intention of going down is more confirmed. This descend is a major move just like end of august of 2011 where a major trend shift started to occur. For the past 2 years every year usually sometimes within the month of august we have experienced a trend shift on the daily chart. This year the daily structure with the trendlines mentioned in a previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post6849728...

am with you on this analysis....how is vacation..u back?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #2,571
  • Aug 13, 2013 11:15am Aug 13, 2013 11:15am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} am with you on this analysis....how is vacation..u back?

Yes, it was great. Went to Holguin, Cuba. Weather was awesome.
  • #2,572
  • Aug 13, 2013 12:51pm Aug 13, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Kambooj
{quote} Yes, it was great. Went to Holguin, Cuba. Weather was awesome.
=============

Welcome back, Kambooj. Looking forward to seeing 3070 and more of you too.

Best regards,
Hercs
  • #2,573
  • Aug 13, 2013 2:30pm Aug 13, 2013 2:30pm
EUR Update
Here is the view for the weekly chart.

A rather strong downtrend will start to materialize in the next 2-3 months leading to a new low since 2010
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Weekly.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #2,574
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:26am Aug 14, 2013 8:26am
EUR/USD Outlook

Lower lows expected soon...
3200-3210 is the first target for now

2 Different Channels implying the same movement which is more downwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,575
  • Aug 14, 2013 8:50am Aug 14, 2013 8:50am
EUR Update

Another view of the same situation using circles:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #2,576
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:20am Aug 15, 2013 8:20am
EUR/USD Outlook

Downward momentum is still in effect with high chances that 3200 will be sliced very hard and price action will get very close to the lows of 3100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #2,577
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:40am Aug 15, 2013 8:40am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook Downward momentum is still in effect with high chances that 3200 will be sliced very hard and price action will get very close to the lows of 3100 {image}

you need to invite me for a seminar so i can learn circular trendline... nice post
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 52 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #2,578
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:50am Aug 15, 2013 8:50am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} you need to invite me for a seminar so i can learn circular trendline... nice post {image}

Thanks, never thought of that (ie Seminar).

The daily chart was the key in determining the downtrend that started from 3400. There were too many trend lines and resistance levels, whether Circular or Straight at that level.

It would be interesting to see when will the real momentum starts to build up.

Usually after a "angle shift" that I had shown in post #2573, 2 days ago, a quick surge begins, which is usually Wave 3 or Wave C of some type of Elliot Wave structure.

If the "Angle Shift / Barrel Roll" is authentic, which I believe it is, we should leave the 3000,3100,3200,3300 levels very quickly.

It would be no surprise to see on the Weekly chart that we are quickly below 3000, and around 2910-2930 for support. Good support exists at that level on the weekly time frame.

So the verdict right now is to sell at every high.
  • #2,579
  • Aug 15, 2013 9:15am Aug 15, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Kambooj
{quote} Thanks, never thought of that (ie Seminar). The daily chart was the key in determining the downtrend that started from 3400. There were too many trend lines and resistance levels, whether Circular or Straight at that level. It would be interesting to see when will the real momentum starts to build up. Usually after a "angle shift" that I had shown in post #2573, 2 days ago, a quick surge begins, which is usually Wave 3 or Wave C of some type of Elliot Wave structure. If the "Angle Shift / Barrel Roll" is authentic, which I believe it...
In another words:

Basically the "Angle Shift" is telling us that the "Desire" for price action to go to the target trendline is decreasing. Therefore its beginning to change direction at a lower level, thereby creating a visual effect of

The Angle of Attack (or Descend) shifting to become more steep.

Because this desire is diminishing, it only tells us that potential energy is being created and stored for a bigger explosion downwards. This potential energy has to be able to create a massive kinetic energy to leave the territory of resistance where its caught in. If it doesnt then we dont have a angle shift as time goes by.

If the angle shift is authentic then the behavior just described above will manifest itself very quickly, so it only makes sense that the size of the Kinetic Energy has to be very large.

Thats why I kept monitoring this thing for about a month trying to see whether it is really a angle shift happening or not. The shift is usually anywhere in between 10-20 degrees off the main descending trendline.

In my opinion IT IS and Will BE a angle shift, because as time was passing by we didnt see a major move towards 3400 and above that could clear those levels.
  • #2,580
  • Aug 20, 2013 1:50am Aug 20, 2013 1:50am
Good morning Kambooj,

Any updates yet?

Wishing you continued success.
Hercs
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