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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #344,821
  • Aug 7, 2013 12:43pm Aug 7, 2013 12:43pm
Ok for all ranging continues , gbp little crazy , ok gu also to reach 1.5500+ , exaggerated though but still within great confusion /swings play mini to maxi crush likely & at the same time if invalidate , core correction/trend change try bounce also .
eu at great level for awaited crush if , Gold similar to gu for for correction to trend change mode but 1267 still not broken & waiting for 1st target ) for any good bounce if wants try next . breaking 1267 can take it to 1221 easily also .
eurgbp expecting break 0.8565 , with gbp more actions /craziness ) while for euraud & gbpaud waiting for the break down for very good correction .
audusd still to fall for the target .
so when euraud & gbpaud will start the correction down & as audusd still to down then usd, aud & gbp,eur should be in line as per their strength . waiting for this start also .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #344,822
  • Aug 7, 2013 12:54pm Aug 7, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Makavell
{quote} {quote} he obviously draws the lines with his d... while scratching his butt
u talking/writing from experience
  • #344,823
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:00pm Aug 7, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting okanemici
1.5540 is where it will stop for now ! That is the daily 200 sma. {image}
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Yeah, that's how we stop it ... with moving average
I said " It will stop for now at 1.5540 " and it stopped at 1.5531 , more over I've 125 pips gain from this account blower bloody move, what do you have ???
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  • #344,824
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:06pm Aug 7, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting bbmac
thanks for replies to question above re COT ---------------------------------------------------- meanwhile investing.com and actionforex.com have the following: G/L {image} {image}

When commercial websites recommend trades often they are wrong.
Otherwise one could simply trade their recommendations to millionaire stardom.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #344,825
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:13pm Aug 7, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Purple
{quote} Vouches on this website is largely depending on post count, not contribution.. you post 15,000+ posts like nAVIN2007 here you will easily get 10 vouches.. its like a buddy system misunderstood for intelligence.

depends who is doing the vouching,

I think the quality matters.

I have seen people with 10 vouches with just over 100 posts.
Money never sleeps...
  • #344,826
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:23pm Aug 7, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} depends who is doing the vouching, I think the quality matters. I have seen people with 10 vouches with just over 100 posts.

there was a time vouching system mattered..and went out of control and now many have vouches and shouldnt and also many should but dont, because it doesnt matter anymore
its only when u have been around a while u can tell who is worthy or not

anyway:- where do u think we are heading bro?
  • #344,827
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:43pm Aug 7, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} there was a time vouching system mattered..and went out of control and now many have vouches and shouldnt and also many should but dont, because it doesnt matter anymore its only when u have been around a while u can tell who is worthy or not anyway:- where do u think we are heading bro?

Looking at the daily 50 200 sma, this could possibly travel between 1.5550 - 1.5350 for a while and then head lower. Waiting for a short setup seems logical around the d1 200 sma.If price breaks the 200 sma and shoot up it is an other story.
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  • #344,828
  • Edited 2:01pm Aug 7, 2013 1:50pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Looking at the daily 50 200 sma, this could possibly travel between 1.5550 - 1.5350 for a while and then head lower. Waiting for a short setup seems logical around the d1 200 sma.If price breaks the 200 sma and shoot up it is an other story. {image}

i just looked at the chart..i forgot something, tomorrow i will be looking for cable to fall back towards 1.52..if it does i will explain in more detail..but im optimistic that it will fall

edit:- i see cable is in a diamond formation which explain why it went up, so long as it falls below 1.56 its still intact..it will be interesting

i will sell at 1.5670..looking for 1.5 (lets see, longer term)
  • #344,829
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:12pm Aug 7, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i just looked at the chart..i forgot something, tomorrow i will be looking for cable to fall back towards 1.52..if it does i will explain in more detail..but im optimistic that it will fall edit:- i see cable is in a diamond formation which explain why it went up, so long as it falls below 1.56 its still intact..it will be interesting i will sell at 1.5670..looking for 1.5 (lets see, longer term)

yeah looking for this swing work & burst in both cases , validate at 4813 first or invalidate at an early with breaks 5751 or late invalidate at 4813 to confirm by breaking reaction top 5751. First should first then & strong bearish in nature .middle of the swing now playing !nearest resistance old 5576/5600 & breakout 5300
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #344,830
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:18pm Aug 7, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting fontu
{quote} yeah looking for this swing work & burst in both cases , validate at 4813 first or invalidate at an early with breaks 5751 . First should first though & strong bearish in nature .middle of the swing now playing ! fontu

i forgot, lack of time in front of trading desk, weekly had a broadening triangle so it was never going to be something straight forward..good news is it aint going nowhere fast (consolidate between 1.56 and 1.50) ..a new high on dailly will make the diamond likely to break to the upside, (but only after making the swing low) ie diamond formation needs to form, hence the optimism for short bias
  • #344,831
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:33pm Aug 7, 2013 2:33pm
Weekly although strongly bullish of late off 4811 low (76.4% 4225-6746) it is still essentially ranging between there and the recent 5751 swing hi on this t/f (this @/around the as yet unchallenged 61.8% 6349-4811) Today's hi is @/around that 76.4% 5751-4811

G/L
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ex member
  • #344,832
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:37pm Aug 7, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i forgot, lack of time in front of trading desk, weekly had a broadening triangle so it was never going to be something straight forward..good news is it aint going nowhere fast (consolidate between 1.56 and 1.50) ..a new high on dailly will make the diamond likely to break to the upside, (but only after making the swing low) ie diamond formation needs to form, hence the optimism for short bias
Thanks , ok . lets wait & see with short bias ( only for my trading recently now to reduce risks & for long term action) . After this confluence over 4700 goes at 3780 & invalidate this diamond to go 6000 to 6300 , not any great for the bull but never thinking yet .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #344,833
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:50pm Aug 7, 2013 2:50pm
a candle isn't a candle till it's closed - but so far there has been an upside follow thru on last month's doji close on the monthly t/f...the t/f remains rangy though.

G/L
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ex member
  • #344,834
  • Aug 7, 2013 2:58pm Aug 7, 2013 2:58pm
thoughts?

http://macrocredit.blogspot.co.uk/20...k-economy.html
  • #344,835
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:01pm Aug 7, 2013 3:01pm
GU nice 2 pip range
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #344,836
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:38pm Aug 7, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} there was a time vouching system mattered..and went out of control and now many have vouches and shouldnt and also many should but dont, because it doesnt matter anymore its only when u have been around a while u can tell who is worthy or not anyway:- where do u think we are heading bro?

You know Nav i haven't traded cable for a while as i seem to be inconcsistent on sentiment and the flip flopping has put me off 'making a guess'.

For a long time until the turn of the year i became confident like many others that we would see the range between 1.52 - 1.63 play out while in this current state of super low interest rates with no central bank signaling much in the way of change on the horizon. We then popped 1.48 in the light of much recovery talk in the US.

I think the UK economy will outgrow Europe for a while in percentage terms but not that of the USA. Interest rates in the UK will remain low (as with the EU) and for that reason i am longer term bearish still on cable. The US about to enter a potential tightening phase and it seems we are way off that for UK and EU.

Recent strong data has raised optimism but in reality growth of 1 to 2% is the best that can be achieved for a while in both the EU and UK. This will keep rates low and make balancing the books difficult.

Medium/Longer term trades only for me (i am terrible at intra day) and my thoughts are as follows.

GBPUSD Bearish (will see the slide begin when the taper is announced), However, i think we can expect some ranging still as good and bad data from the US changes expectations over the months. I think selling anything at 1.57 and buying below 1.48 will remain good 'bets'.

EURUSD Bearish, the Euro has been supported by changes in flows and the move away from higher yielding currencies to those of larger economies. I think much of it by clinging to the coat tails of the dollar and the potential recovery in the US. None of it really is earned and i expect the Euro to be trading below current levels over the next year to 18 months. 1.24 maybe becoming the longer term pivot with a range of 1.22 and 1.26. Any potential crisis from maybe Italy could see this drop lower but for me selling the Euro at 1.34 is a great long term bet.

EURGBP Bearish, with seemingly better data coming out of the UK i think the GBP will gain against the Euro and we will see level in .7's. Selling from current levels being a good trade.
Money never sleeps...
  • #344,837
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:46pm Aug 7, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} You know Nav i haven't traded cable for a while as i seem to be inconcsistent on sentiment and the flip flopping has put me off 'making a guess'. For a long time until the turn of the year i became confident like many others that we would see the range between 1.52 - 1.63 play out while in this current state of super low interest rates with no central bank signaling much in the way of change on the horizon. We then popped 1.48 in the light of much recovery talk in the US. I think the UK economy will outgrow Europe for a while in percentage...
thanks buddy, very sound thinking..
  • #344,838
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:53pm Aug 7, 2013 3:53pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} thanks buddy, very sound thinking..

Thanks Nav,

I have actually seen better options shorting Oil from anything north of 107 these past few weeks. It seems we are in a period of unsettlement in the forex market as traders try to make best guesses as to the likelihood of recovery in the USA. Once that becomes clearer i think we will start to see some larger moves.

Just hoping for some more spikes north in Oil before then
Money never sleeps...
  • #344,839
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:56pm Aug 7, 2013 3:56pm
Your analysis seems well thought out...it serves to remind me how thick I am lol ! - Conversely though it also reminds me how thankful I am that I trade [ intraday ]using tech analysis - ie I don't have to try and work all that fundie / global macro stuff out and base trading decisions on it...I ain't that clever. I try to have no opinion as having an opinion can prejudice your mental ability to act on a tech signal. Horses for courses.

G/L

Quoting inpatient
{quote} You know Nav i haven't traded cable for a while as i seem to be inconcsistent on sentiment and the flip flopping has put me off 'making a guess'. For a long time until the turn of the year i became confident like many others that we would see the range between 1.52 - 1.63 play out while in this current state of super low interest rates with no central bank signaling much in the way of change on the horizon. We then popped 1.48 in the light of much recovery talk in the US. I think the UK economy will outgrow Europe for a while in percentage...
ex member
  • #344,840
  • Aug 7, 2013 4:07pm Aug 7, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting bbmac
Your analysis seems well thought out...it serves to remind me how thick I am lol ! - Conversely though it also reminds me how thankful I am that I trade [ intraday ]using tech analysis - ie I don't have to try and work all that fundie / global macro stuff out and base trading decisions on it...I ain't that clever. I try to have no opinion as having an opinion can prejudice your mental ability to act on a tech signal. Horses for courses. G/L {quote}

that is strange BB as i feel the exact same way about techs.

I suppose it depends on your own style and personality. I studied techs for a decent length of time. Traded in the direction of trends, using S/R, fibs and pivots as exits. Used a tight stop etc etc and after more than a year staring at the screen all day every day i had gone backwards in my account.

I thought to myself, 'what am i doing wrong'. I looked back at every trade and seen that 'every trade i ever made' would have been a winner in the longer term. My stops where too tight and had limited my success. I then tried to work out at what level would my stops have been 'optimal'. You would have laughed if you had seen me going through excel sheet after excel sheet trying to work this out to be an exact science.

I then realised that looking at this and trying to generate an exact or ideal stop range was pointless. This is because each entry is different and some are good and some are bad. If i am inconsistent myself at entries how can there ever be an ideal range for a stop. Each trade is unique as is each trader.

Well since the start of the year i changed my style. I now use only fundamentals and trade over much longer timeframes where i believe the techs have less importance. I have grown my account very well this year and i feel i am at least on a better path.
Money never sleeps...
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