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EUR/CHF

  • #10,781
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:37am Aug 6, 2013 5:37am
Quoting brinks
CPI tomorrow anybody interested ? Anyone got any ideas?
I hope we will have another dip to 200 DMA (it is 1,2251 today, but constantly growing 1-2pip/day), or maybe they will be one spike to 1,22-1,2250 region.

In August i do not expect any big move, just ranging. But i think between Sept 2013 and 2013 year end we will see a new high between 1,2670 and 1,3
  • #10,782
  • Aug 6, 2013 5:41am Aug 6, 2013 5:41am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} I hope we will have another dip to 200 DMA (it is 1,2251 today, but constantly growing 1-2pip/day), or maybe they will be one spike to 1,22-1,2250 region. In August i do not expect any big move, just ranging. But i think between Sept 2013 and 2013 year end we will see a new high between 1,2670 and 1,3

Thanks simon consensus is for minus 0.1% year on year again i assume if it comes in higher than expected people will start wondering if the swiss will be looking at removing the peg as it was bought in to fight off deflation risks?
  • #10,783
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:17am Aug 6, 2013 6:17am
Quoting brinks
{quote} 1.50 Holmes!!! that article says 1.35 maybe by the middle of next year then goes on to say why it may stay around the 1.21 area

When USDJPY was 80 I heard from Bloomberg that sending the pair from 80 t0 90 needs a Bazooka and no turning point was in sight but you saw what BOJ did, actually I think the more credit a Central Bank possesses the more aggressive devaluation of its currency can be, IMF where is in charge for the currency value over the world reiterated several times that JPY was highly valued but not overvalued too much and at the same time they used to say CHF was still overvalued and that time CHFJPY was 77-78, but now it is being traded around 106, so close to historical highs. In addition after EZ structural problems fading away and more easing from BOJ expected for the coming months shows that CHF will be much more valued if it stays in love with current Euro I mean 1.23-1.25. You can add some more signs as UBS banking sending letters to some of clients at the start of this year not to keep CHF ( don't say it has been for 300 pips devaluation of CHF) Plus the confirmation from Jordan that the peg needs to be adjusted.
  • #10,784
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:24am Aug 6, 2013 6:24am
Quoting holmes
{quote} When USDJPY was 80 I heard from Bloomberg that sending the pair from 80 t0 90 needs a Bazooka and no turning point was in sight but you saw what BOJ did, actually I think the more credit a Central Bank possesses the more aggressive devaluation of its currency can be, IMF where is in charge for the currency value over the world reiterated several times that JPY was highly valued but not overvalued too much and at the same time they used to say CHF was still overvalued and that time CHFJPY was 77-78, but now it is being traded around 106,...

Thanks holmes as always.

I know your positive that the SNB are going to raise the floor but i just cant see it.

But with all the data out of the eurozone showing improvement the pair cant rally past recent highs.

As Simon73 said we are in summer ranging markets so shouldnt expect a big breakout.
  • #10,785
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:41am Aug 6, 2013 6:41am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Thanks holmes as always. I know your positive that the SNB are going to raise the floor but i just cant see it. But with all the data out of the eurozone showing improvement the pair cant rally past recent highs. As Simon73 said we are in summer ranging markets so shouldnt expect a big breakout.
I think these days is an accumulation phase for big guys. They buying all the dips, but there is no follow throw, just buying and wait. In addition there is stop hunting for small tarders, like today in Asian session: A lot of stop tripped at 1,2290.

The best strategy these days: place a buy order below last minimum (H1 H4), and sell it at resistance level. If you could buy at around 1,2250 hold it for 1,27-1,3
  • #10,786
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:46am Aug 6, 2013 6:46am
What about that confirmation from jordan that the peg needs to be adjusted? What did i miss? Never heard such words... Source would be useful.

Data out of EUR-Zone is getting better. I hope it goes on like this, because this could be the main reason for an increasing EURCHF. I'm looking out for end-of-the-recession-signs in EUR-Zone.

Inflation-figures from minus-territory to +0.5 % are convenient for SNB. Higher inflation rates than 1 % would lead to (international) pressure on the peg. As the consensus for tomorrow is negative, we could face a unpleasant surprise if we see positive inflation-development. But lets wait for tomorrows figures.

I have hope that smart money is onloading in these areas over the 200 DMA for the big spike up...
  • #10,787
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:01am Aug 6, 2013 7:01am
Quoting Swissie
What about that confirmation from jordan that the peg needs to be adjusted? What did i miss? Never heard such words... Source would be useful. Data out of EUR-Zone is getting better. I hope it goes on like this, because this could be the main reason for an increasing EURCHF. I'm looking out for end-of-the-recession-signs in EUR-Zone. Inflation-figures from minus-territory to +0.5 % are convenient for SNB. Higher inflation rates than 1 % would lead to (international) pressure on the peg. As the consensus for tomorrow is negative, we could face a...
About Jordan words, i posted earlier:

"After Jordan hard words in May (rising floor and negativ rates), he said a more preciz answer at the SNB meeting:

- there was a question on the press conf, what SNB do IF ECB implement negativ rates. THEN Jordan said, SNB has a lot of tool (rising floor and negativ rates)

So I think we could see any surprise from Jordan, IF ECB do something surprise


"
  • #10,788
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:16am Aug 6, 2013 7:16am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} About Jordan words, i posted earlier: "After Jordan hard words in May (rising floor and negativ rates), he said a more preciz answer at the SNB meeting: - there was a question on the press conf, what SNB do IF ECB implement negativ rates. THEN Jordan said, SNB has a lot of tool (rising floor and negativ rates) So I think we could see any surprise from Jordan, IF ECB do something surprise "
Thanks

But there is the big IF (ECB) and as long as rate is above 1.20, there is no need to adjust for snb. even if there is a surprise by ECB. So i'm not expecting another help from SNB for EURCHF longs... Maybe they help on not breaking the 200 daily MA, but i doubt that either...
  • #10,789
  • Aug 7, 2013 9:29am Aug 7, 2013 9:29am
added 1 long @ 1.2287
  • #10,790
  • Edited 10:12am Aug 7, 2013 10:01am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting Swissie
added 1 long @ 1.2287

I wonder if the 200 ema will hold it again.

If not then 1.22200 and 1.21340could come quickly.

Considering the dollar yen and dollar swissie are both lower the euro swissie is not holding up to bad.

I have got a feeling that the 200 ema is going to be broken.

Better data from the euro all week and this thing couldnt rally 20 pips.
  • #10,791
  • Aug 7, 2013 6:58pm Aug 7, 2013 6:58pm
usd/chf h4 chart

double bottom with "w shape"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfh4.png Size: 52 KB
  • #10,792
  • Aug 8, 2013 1:39am Aug 8, 2013 1:39am
Can anyone explain to me why the dollar weakness is affecting euro swissie so much I appreciate it has to with dollar swissie being sold but it is also in the euro index.

also dollar yen is being sold off which is making the pair fall I just don't get it.

im going to look to start long at 1.22000 area if it gets there see if I can summon the patience to forget and hold.
  • #10,793
  • Aug 8, 2013 3:39am Aug 8, 2013 3:39am
Why do you think dollar weakness or USD/JPY sell-off affect EUR/CHF at all?
  • #10,794
  • Edited 9:25am Aug 8, 2013 3:46am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting enivid
Why do you think dollar weakness or USD/JPY sell-off affect EUR/CHF at all?
Hi enivid usd/chf selling has got to affect euro swissie has it not?

Being a euro index pair it should follow euro but it is doing what usd/chf does at the moment.

From the 10/07/2013 euro dollar up 600 pips, usd swissie down 550 pips roughly and euro swissie down 150

Citi says to go long EUR/CHF right now
Adam Button

The technical analysis team at Citi recommends EUR/CHF longs at 1.2304 with a target of 1.2650. They put a stop at 1.2200.

They cite positive price action in European stock markets and prior rebounds from the 200-day moving average as catalysts.

EURCHF daily chart

They see initial resistance at 1.2465. if anybody takes notice of bank recommendations
  • #10,795
  • Aug 9, 2013 6:50am Aug 9, 2013 6:50am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Hi enivid usd/chf selling has got to affect euro swissie has it not? Being a euro index pair it should follow euro but it is doing what usd/chf does at the moment. From the 10/07/2013 euro dollar up 600 pips, usd swissie down 550 pips roughly and euro swissie down 150 Citi says to go long EUR/CHF right now Adam Button The technical analysis team at Citi recommends EUR/CHF longs at 1.2304...
Hi Brinks, thanks for the info, what Im watching right now that we are heavily on the crossroads on W1 (sorry cannot post a chart - no time). Opened some longs thit week because of 200 EMA/SMA near but still got some gunpowder as I think that there could be some tricky PA before launch (some clearance spikes down, maybe a close below 200 EMA/SMA). Anyway lets see.
  • #10,796
  • Aug 9, 2013 7:19am Aug 9, 2013 7:19am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Hi Brinks, thanks for the info, what Im watching right now that we are heavily on the crossroads on W1 (sorry cannot post a chart - no time). Opened some longs thit week because of 200 EMA/SMA near but still got some gunpowder as I think that there could be some tricky PA before launch (some clearance spikes down, maybe a close below 200 EMA/SMA). Anyway lets see.

Hi Pipxster no problems i dont usually take any notice of bank recommendations myself.
I think there will be chances to get in at lower levels on the pair but i could be wrong.
  • #10,797
  • Edited 11:12pm Aug 9, 2013 7:57am | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting brinks
{quote} Hi enivid usd/chf selling has got to affect euro swissie has it not? Being a euro index pair it should follow euro but it is doing what usd/chf does at the moment. From the 10/07/2013 euro dollar up 600 pips, usd swissie down 550 pips roughly and euro swissie down 150
There is no hard evidence that USD/CHF is affecting EUR/CHF. They might even not get correlated as USD/CHF may move based on USD fluctuations, while EUR/CHF will move based on EUR fluctuations. There is nothing EUR/CHF "should do" because it is a part of the Euro Currency Index (I doubt it trades in volumes high enough to matter at all).
  • #10,798
  • Aug 9, 2013 8:56am Aug 9, 2013 8:56am
Quoting enivid
{quote} There is hard evidence that USD/CHF is affecting EUR/CHF. They might even not get correlated as USD/CHF may move based on USD fluctuations, while EUR/CHF will move based on EUR fluctuations. There is nothing EUR/CHF "should do" because it is a part of the Euro Currency Index (I doubt it trades in volumes high enough to matter at all).

thanks enivid i assumed because the eur/chf was in the euro index it should move in the same direction as the euro dollar not neccesarily at the same rate but in the same direction it has been the complete opposite the last few weeks.
  • #10,799
  • Aug 10, 2013 2:11am Aug 10, 2013 2:11am
Meanwhile George dorgan who has always said the euro will fall against the franc and the SNB will have to remove the 1.20 floor is changing his mind.

[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]CHF Price Movements Part2: EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

Read more at: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/chf-price-movements-eur-chf-1-30/ | SNB & CHF[/highlight]
  • #10,800
  • Aug 10, 2013 5:40am Aug 10, 2013 5:40am
Quoting brinks
Meanwhile George dorgan who has always said the euro will fall against the franc and the SNB will have to remove the 1.20 floor is changing his mind. CHF Price Movements Part2: EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible? Read more at: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/chf-price-movements-eur-chf-1-30/ | SNB & CHF
OMG he should be the last person to say that Im starting to think that the floor is going to break

One year ago he wrote an article with a title:why the EUR wont ever go above 1,22 to the CHF
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