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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,621
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:23pm Aug 3, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting HCGroup
Hi dear PT I like to see your chart and your analysis about next week. thank you
Hi HCG,

With the latest development of the weaker than expected NFP number, I think we have to wait and see what kind of sentiment develops on Monday. Will the market realize that the NFP number is most likely going to be revised upwards next month? You see, all the indications from the Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs as well as the Markit Survey and the US Jobless claims report strongly suggested a bigger increase in jobs created for the month of July. The problem here is that the BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) uses a mid-month mean average to come up with some kind of bastardized guesstimate of the number, and that is what is released as the official NFP number (subject to revision with actual numbers in the following month).

Anyway, according to my latest Elliott Wave count, Traditional Price Action analysis and market supply/demand, price on this pair is heading lower. Below I will post my charts to show what I mean. In the last chart (5 Minute) you will see that I have placed questions marks on the last yellow B / Violet C as well as the violet 1 and 2 that follow them. This is because it is quite possible that the Violet C is not yet complete. If this is the case, then it will most likely rise early next week to complete. Now the question is "where will it top out and reverse?" For that we have to look at the supply zones (Red shaded areas) in all the charts below, but I would not bet on any move upwards breaking the critical resistance at 1.3410/15 area. In fact I would be more inclined to believe we have already topped out and that the current questioned counts are in fact valid. However, we will have to wait till Monday to find out for sure.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,622
  • Aug 3, 2013 3:34pm Aug 3, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi HCG, With the latest development of the weaker than expected NFP number, I think we have to wait and see what kind of sentiment develops on Monday. Will the market realize that the NFP number is most likely going to be revised upwards next month? You see, all the indications from the Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs as well as the Markit Survey and the US Jobless claims report strongly suggested a bigger increase in jobs created for the month of July. The problem here is that the BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) uses a mid-month...
...and just to make reference to the employment components to which I was referring in my previous post, here they are.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,623
  • Edited 4:27pm Aug 4, 2013 4:14pm | Edited 4:27pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...eculation.html

these fekers doesnt know what are they talking about.. With all this commerzbank alike trade recomendations sh*t, I see as part of big nonsense propaganda to drive retailers sentiment away.... Every move that happened in a last couple of days was so technical - despite fomc, draghi and nfp induced volatility.. And after just a bit of a profit taking near major supplay zone (one red D1 candle on the top of 600 pip bull range) everybody (in the media) screaming sell, sell, sell...
PT, you didnt showed that supply zone on your slides above.. Its on the Quarterly charts. It was tested and rejected two times in last three Q's and now EU approaches for the third time.. You know what often happens on the third test, right..? Smaller Tf's already indicated a HH above 34xx couple of times, after which 37xx will be in view..

On intraday charts, breakout of fridays NY range in to either direction will be continuous. Probably lower side will be limited to 3130's. To the upper side: 3320(minor one..) 3360/3430's/3480's
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  • #68,624
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:34pm Aug 4, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting Likerty
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...eculation.html these fekers doesnt know what are they talking about.. With all this commerzbank alike trade recomendations sh*t, I see as part of big nonsense propaganda to drive retailers sentiment away.... Every move that happened in a last couple of days was so technical - despite fomc, draghi and nfp induced volatility.. And after just a bit of a profit taking near major supplay zone (one red D1 candle on the top of 600 pip bull range) everybody...
Yes you are correct. Usually after a third hit, it manages to punch through, but remember that many punch throughs fail also. I would not bet much on a sustained move if we get a punch through, but I will agree that 1.3410/15 is a likely target and most likely a top if we do manage to see a move upwards. The alternatives are a top at 1.3320/40/60 or we have already made a top at 3292. Only time will tell which it is.

If we do manage to get a sustained move, then that will invalidate my current EW count and it's back to the drawing board for me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,625
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:46pm Aug 4, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes you are correct. Usually after a third hit, it manages to punch through, but remember that many punch throughs fail also. I would not bet much on a sustained move if we get a punch through, but I will agree that 1.3410/15 is a likely target and most likely a top if we do manage to see a move upwards. The alternatives are a top at 1.3320/40/60 or we have already made a top at 3292. Only time will tell which it is. If we do manage to get a sustained move, then that will invalidate my current EW count and it's back to the drawing board...
how does sustained move looks like..?
Failure of Q punch may look like hell of a swing on daily
69
  • #68,626
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:05pm Aug 4, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} how does sustained move looks like..? Failure of Q punch may look like hell of a swing on daily
A close above 3417 invalidates my current count but still leaves me with an alternate bearish count.
A close above 3710 invalidates all bearish counts and turns bullish.

Also keep in mind that you focus on smaller time frames and I trade daily/weekly/monthly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,627
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:25pm Aug 4, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} A close above 3417 invalidates my current count but still leaves me with an alternate bearish count. A close above 3710 invalidates all bearish counts and turns bullish. Also keep in mind that you focus on smaller time frames and I trade daily/weekly/monthly
After breaching 3415 highs profit taking will happen at some point, so it will invalidate wave count and still - go down afterwards..
Its too early to call before breaking 3345, but most likely it will go for 3460/80 and may drop to 3330's after..
69
  • #68,628
  • Aug 4, 2013 5:36pm Aug 4, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} After breaching 3415 highs profit taking will happen at some point, so it will invalidate wave count and still - go down afterwards.. Its too early to call before breaking 3345, but most likely it will go for 3460/80 and may drop to 3330's after..
I am taking about a weekly close above 3415 and not just a breach.
and even so, it does not mean I will buy at 3415
Remember my mantra; buy low, sell high

Anyway, let's see if we even get there first. I doubt it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,629
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:32am Aug 5, 2013 5:32am
morning. i'm short 1 euro from 3290

too bad things were so shitty in grains a bit ago. i had to step back and clear my thinking. the old/new crop collapse continues in that complex.
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  • #68,630
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:35am Aug 5, 2013 5:35am
i take a little comfort in how right i was on a touch and go at above 3300 but below 3400. it made my level within 20 ticks so i was right on the money with taking a conservative profit, even though i had to bail earlier than anticipated.
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  • #68,631
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:35am Aug 5, 2013 5:35am
Quoting redteamgo
morning. i'm short 1 euro from 3290 too bad things were so shitty in grains a bit ago. i had to step back and clear my thinking. the old/new crop collapse continues in that complex.
I hope you weren't holding and NZ powdered milk
Just kidding of course.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,632
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:53am Aug 5, 2013 5:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I hope you weren't holding and NZ powdered milk Just kidding of course.
not sure I understand. I puked everything and took a five figure USD loss twoish weeks ago, it was real ugly. i stepped back so i could clear my head and reassess . my preferential trade direction has gotten substantially worse since then so it really paid to not try to force the trade. i don't understand whats going on so the decision for now is to stay out of ags.

having said that, i'm day trading euros and looking for 3215 today
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  • #68,633
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:33am Aug 5, 2013 6:33am
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} not sure I understand. I puked everything and took a five figure USD loss twoish weeks ago, it was real ugly. i stepped back so i could clear my head and reassess . my preferential trade direction has gotten substantially worse since then so it really paid to not try to force the trade. i don't understand whats going on so the decision for now is to stay out of ags. having said that, i'm day trading euros and looking for 3215 today

Red- team go I sympathise I have done this 3 times in the last 3 years

I have now decided to let winners run and cut losers early .

It sounds simple doesn’t it.


I have been short EUR/USD since Friday at 1.3291 I am also looking for that sort of level

We may have to wait until tomorrow.
  • #68,634
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:42am Aug 5, 2013 6:42am
prosac, yes. trading is indeed an art. everything is a winner until suddenly its not. making the judgement call is what separates those who last from those who don't.

i sold the retest of the high overnight while i was sleeping. just added 2 at 3270. short 3 contracts total. planning to take profit on 2 at 3215 and hold 1 for an eventual retest of 2905. have to step away for a while. G/L all.
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  • #68,635
  • Aug 5, 2013 7:33am Aug 5, 2013 7:33am
EU is settling for a bullish breakout. 3240's is the place to look for longs
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  • #68,636
  • Aug 5, 2013 8:11am Aug 5, 2013 8:11am
Quoting Likerty
EU is settling for a bullish breakout. 3240's is the place to look for longs
I wish it was easy to be as certain as you seem to be
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,637
  • Aug 5, 2013 8:45am Aug 5, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Likerty
EU is settling for a bullish breakout. 3240's is the place to look for longs

I get your level but would feel more comfortable at 224.

So you think they retest highs?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,638
  • Aug 5, 2013 8:50am Aug 5, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I get your level but would feel more comfortable at 224. So you think they retest highs?
I am more inclined to think that 3240 will give way and demand will be found just ahead of the 1.3210 area (see H1 chart below)

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,639
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:00am Aug 5, 2013 9:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am more inclined to think that 3240 will give way and demand will be found just ahead of the 1.3210 area (see H1 chart below) {image}

That would be my bet as well thus the 224 level. I am out now.

But a failed retest of highs would be nice and fit in with your EWC if I remember correctly.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,640
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:01am Aug 5, 2013 9:01am
3240 is way too high. Approaching my target. Stop sell triggered at 3245... short 4 to 3215
Any prices quoted are futures
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