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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,601
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:40am Aug 2, 2013 10:40am
Quoting chess king
{quote} this week little or nothing new happened ... we'll have to wait for the next few days ... to see if things get a little clearer, where the E / U really want to go!? GL and good weekend .
Good weekend to you also.
Take care.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,602
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:44am Aug 2, 2013 10:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I had a pending order at 1.33 the figure and of course it never triggered. Had a chance at 3292 but wanted to wait for 3300. Ended up having to settle for 3278 when it failed to hold at 3280 M5 support. But at least I am in
you'll get all your pendings triggered
69
  • #68,603
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:45am Aug 2, 2013 10:45am
AUDUSD could be the long trade of the month soon, after 8830/7780..
69
  • #68,604
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:47am Aug 2, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} you'll get all your pendings triggered
We'll see. It would be nice, but I'll be happy if it goes down from here just the same.

I unwinded lots of positions in profit today exactly as the news hit so my book is light and I have lots more room to add now. So either I add higher, or I scale in more after a break and confirmed hold below 1.3200/1.3195 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,605
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:49am Aug 2, 2013 10:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} We'll see. It would be nice, but I'll be happy if it goes down from here just the same. I unwinded lots of positions in profit today exactly as the news hit so my book is light and I have lots more room to add now. So either I add higher, or I scale in more after a break and confirmed hold below 1.3200/1.3195 area.
I noticed that often unreached friday's NY profit targets are postponed for Sudnay night. Just wait for 3320's to be tested nicely on Sunday if not today..
69
  • #68,606
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:50am Aug 2, 2013 10:50am
Quoting Likerty
AUDUSD could be the long trade of the month soon, after 8830/7780..
Yep I've already got my eagle eyes on it.
It is just completing wave 5 down right now.
Looking for a nice ABC correction towards 95/96 area.
Not time to trigger yet though... Maybe next week. The RBA rate decision is on Tuesday early morning/ Monday late night. If the RBA does not cut, expect loads of short covering.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,607
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:52am Aug 2, 2013 10:52am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I noticed that often unreached friday's NY profit targets are postponed for Sudnay night. Just wait for 3320's to be tested nicely on Sunday if not today..
Very true. Thanks for the reminder.
That's when Asia catches up with what NY did on Friday after Asia close.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,608
  • Aug 2, 2013 10:53am Aug 2, 2013 10:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep I've already got my eagle eyes on it. It is just completing wave 5 down right now. Looking for a nice ABC correction towards 95/96 area. Not time to trigger yet though... Maybe next week. The RBA rate decision is on Tuesday early morning/ Monday late night. If the RBA does not cut, expect loads of short covering.
where exactly this wave is pointing to bounce from..?
69
  • #68,609
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:03am Aug 2, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} where exactly this wave is pointing to bounce from..?
Should be around the 8710 zone
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,610
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:10am Aug 2, 2013 11:10am
Strong Dollar Theme: Dead Or Alive? - Nomura

Trading the dollar directionally over the past few months has been frustrating to say the least, says Nomura.
"After something resembling an uptrend in the first five months of the year, we have entered a phase of erratic ups and down versus major currencies (although there has been a more persistent underlying uptrend versus emerging market currencies)," Nomura clarifies.
"The first dollar drawdown happened following Bernanke’s initial tapering remarks on May 22, which caused broad-based position unwinding (and significant EM weakness). The second dollar drawdown was triggered by a shift in communication strategy from the Fed (Bernanke’s Boston speech), aimed at anchoring short rate expectations," Nomura adds.
So, what's on the cards for the strong USD theme? dead or a live?
Structurally alive but it may take more time before adding to USD longs,answers Nomura.
"We probably need stronger data to see the strong dollar trade really take off (tapering by itself is not enough). Our call is a moderate pickup this quarter, based on better data momentum over the past 2-3 weeks, and our underlying view that fiscal drag will diminish in Q3 (and especially Q4). This is the basic reason we maintain long USD bias," Nomura argues.
"Our portfolio has long USD spot exposure vs CAD, CHF, GBP and EUR and long-dated option exposure vs CAD. Timing the real turn in the US data is the key to putting on more leveraged structures (in addition to navigating the peaks in positioning). Our goal will be to get that time right in the next 1-2 months," Nomura adds.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,611
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:06pm Aug 2, 2013 12:06pm
And when the $ gets some traction, it's gonna be a hell of a squeeze for the dollar bears. Gimme a nice dip and I'll simply buy more and patiently sit on my hands and wait.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #68,612
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:10pm Aug 2, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting PipKiller
And when the $ gets some traction, it's gonna be a hell of a squeeze for the dollar bears. Gimme a nice dip and I'll simply buy more and patiently sit on my hands and wait.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,613
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:19pm Aug 2, 2013 12:19pm
Employment Report: Steady, but Slow Improvement

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...-but-slow.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,614
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:21pm Aug 2, 2013 2:21pm
If you live in New York, LA or Dallas (or other selected markets) and you subscribe to a Time-Warner owned Cable Television provider, you've just lost all your CBS channels including CNBC
More here > http://www.cnbc.com/id/100928523
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,615
  • Aug 2, 2013 5:43pm Aug 2, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Should be around the 8710 zone

Looking at H4, I have potential crab ending at 87948. Would post chart but looks a mess due to size of move.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #68,616
  • Aug 2, 2013 8:40pm Aug 2, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting PipKiller
And when the $ gets some traction, it's gonna be a hell of a squeeze for the dollar bears. Gimme a nice dip and I'll simply buy more and patiently sit on my hands and wait.
There's vely good odd that you'll get your nice dip..
btw, I hope you're not building long dollar possies like him..
trade safe & have a nice w/e..
  • #68,617
  • Aug 3, 2013 8:44am Aug 3, 2013 8:44am
EUR/USD WEEKLY CHART
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  • #68,618
  • Aug 3, 2013 8:45am Aug 3, 2013 8:45am
EUR/GBP WEEKLY CHART
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  • #68,619
  • Aug 3, 2013 12:29pm Aug 3, 2013 12:29pm
Weekly MarcToMarket update
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/08/...technical.html

excerpt regarding the Euro and Sterling

Euro: Immediate resistance is seen in the $1.3300-10 high and then $1.3350. The June high, near $1.3410 represented a 4-month high and marks the upper end of the range. On the downside, a break of $1.3180 is needed to signal a top is in place.

Sterling: New lows since July 25th high near $1.5425 were recorded prior to the US jobs data and sterling proceeded to rally through, and closing above the previous day's high. This sets up a potential key reversal. A move above $1.5310 would signal a tested on the late July high The lighter participation and the BOE's quarterly inflation report may restrain the upside in the first part of the week ahead. Support is pegged near $1.5100.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,620
  • Aug 3, 2013 12:33pm Aug 3, 2013 12:33pm
Hi dear PT

I like to see your chart and your analysis about next week.

thank you
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