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MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

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  • #820,841
  • Aug 3, 2013 10:56pm Aug 3, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Logically, Euro is the only viable currency. I have revised my estimate to 1€ = 100$. Now, ask me why?
euro zone wont break apart. sure some countries have issues, but euro zone wont break up.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,842
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:00pm Aug 3, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting ffleo
aussie next solid support is 8000, it is still about 900 pips away. ea solid resistance is about 550 pips away. looks like going short on ea is better than longing aussie.
there is 8710/8712 SNEAKY SNEAKY as huge support

those going with historical demand levels ONLY will likely be cleaned out thinking the retracement in Summer 2010 (low of 8770) will hold up.

it feels to me there are MANY stops under 8770. why wouldn't they take those out and send it to the huge confluence at 8710/12

hell, could even make it another 150 pips down to 8560/8576

after a 2nd look this weekend i need to lower my stop and reduce my size scaling into this long correction that is inevitably coming. my large buy limits are too high up.

but just look at the RSI divergences (the first one i caught from 9022), and the slow stochastic. we will definitely see Wave 2 (first monthly correction) coming VERY SOON. i think its likely August closes as a doji.

WEEKLY AUSSIE
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,843
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:00pm Aug 3, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} euro zone wont break apart. sure some countries have issues, but euro zone wont break up.
people have been saying for years euro is going to disappear. it is still here at a rate about 1.33 to the dollar right now.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #820,844
  • Edited 11:46pm Aug 3, 2013 11:02pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Yes you would but HDA has a long EURAUD and said he wouldn't suffer any losses if EA fell I was simply pointing out that not taking profits when the market is telling you to do so is a loss in my book. Such as letting a move run 3000 pips in profit and then letting it retrace back to entry. Equity is all that matters so in my book, it would be a loss
@Rag2RichesFX:


I wrote in error - I was falling asleep. What I meant was - because the swap which I erred about as being positive both ways, either long or short - it wouldnt have mattered, because I would be making money in the trade either way wether long or short, because the swap was positive either way. I made the correction in the post about that.

Thank you for the correction about the EUR/AUD swaps - I'm falling asleep .

LONG is (-US$11.8)/day which is (-US$354)/month
SHORT is US$6.35/day which is US$190.50/month



The 0.27cents is the interest paid on the balance of your account, out of trade.

In other words I was just saying even though the EUR/AUD has not passed 1.16 as stated by ffleo-

Quoting ffleo
{quote} EA never traded below 1.1605 in the last 20 years. you might have a typo.
I was saying even if price action never got there, I would still be making money with the swap because it would have been positive wether I was long or short, but that was an ERROR - because I incorrectly wrote the swaps wrong.

GONE TO BED

CORRECTION: Yes you are mistaken - I don't not have a LONG - EUR/AUD - I was only looking at that pair because inpatient ask me for my thoughts on the pair of which KEN A second the request.

Quoting inpatient
HDA, Would be interested in your opinion on EA? I have it approaching the turning point and have started to build shorts and will do as (or if) it climbs to 1.525
Quoting HDA
{quote} @inpatient: Let me check - on sec I might be delayed in responding because I have to check everything, options expiry etc etc etc
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Please do. I have been searching the options for EUR/AUD and orders for ages
  • #820,845
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:13pm Aug 3, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is a good risk management practice. Money in a broker's account is always at risk, no matter you are in a trade or not. However, currency trading is a very high risk venture and therefore one should not set consistent gain as the investment objective. In fact, currency trading is not at all an investment, it is just trading for profit or loss. If you slightly deepen your vision (looking forward only 1 to 2 years), day trading becomes much more profitable and yielding consitent returns. How? There are only two price levels which market...
what is considered an investment to you?

because to me, an investment is simply anything that you spend money on in order to gain more money than you spent.

currency speculation is just as much an investment as physical real estate. currencies cannot stay at the same levels forever or the economy suffers. must always be fluctuating between oversold and overbought.

as a matter of fact, HFT algorithms true purpose is not insane profits (although I'm sure they do), it is market liquidity. Without them markets would collapse...


must. constantly. be. placing. trades. at. all. times. or. world. falls. apart.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,846
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:21pm Aug 3, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} people have been saying for years euro is going to disappear. it is still here at a rate about 1.33 to the dollar right now.
unless people go straight to gold, (its all psychology) the ECB and FED can play see-saw until the end of time.
its just that we will be using quadrillions one day...

people dont seem to realize that the biggest market makers are commercial banks, and that the largest commercial banks are shareholders of the FED. any long term successful currency traders should know this.. but hey fundamental knowledge is absolutely NOT a requirement to succeed in these markets.

when i was first learning about the banking system. i honestly thought a debt jubilee would fix everything but then realized this would cause a 20 fold increase in the value of the USD. gas would be a dime/gallon again.

this would be significantly worse than what we have now. power would be more consolidated to the hands of a few then ever before in history
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,847
  • Aug 3, 2013 11:45pm Aug 3, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} what is considered an investment to you? because to me, an investment is simply anything that you spend money on in order to gain more money than you spent. currency speculation is just as much an investment as physical real estate. currencies cannot stay at the same levels forever or the economy suffers. must always be fluctuating between oversold and overbought. as a matter of fact, HFT algorithms true purpose is not insane profits (although I'm sure they do), it is market liquidity. Without them markets would collapse... must. constantly....
This is indeed a fine line. This is how I understand it.

Investment is like Capital Expenditure and a Bet is an Expense (amount needs be spent to do business).

An Investment is just like a piece of production machinery one acquires to make goods or provide services. There is no intention of consuming this machinery as a raw material or supply or re-sale it to a customer. It indeed depreciates over time or becomes obsolete but the intention is not to consume it. Similarly, an investment is made not to risk it in whole or part but to keep on generating revenue from its existence and use.

A Bet is like an Expense "Double or Nothing". It is like merchandise held for re-sale in ordinary course of business or to be consumed in the process of generating revenues.

Sometimes a trader has to put on table the whole thing but risking only a fraction of it. That fraction intended to be risked is the Bet but the rest of it is not Investment. It is put out there only becasue one cannot place a Bet without putting the whole thing out. One reason, we have leverages. The "Not Bet Portion" is covered by leverage. That means a trader operating with no leverage is betting only a fraction of his/her capital because it cannot be done without buying or selling a complete unit. The rest of the money is just to facilitate the Bet and therefore does not qualify as an investment which can be defined as:An investment is an asset acquired not to consume or resale in ordinary course of business but for use to create wealth.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #820,848
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:14am Aug 4, 2013 12:14am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is indeed a fine line. This is how I understand it. Investment is like Capital Expenditure and a Bet is an Expense (amount needs be spent to do business). An Investment is just like a piece of production machinery one acquires to make goods or provide services. There is no intention of consuming this machinery as a raw material or supply or re-sale it to a customer. It indeed depreciates over time or becomes obsolete but the intention is not to consume it. Similarly, an investment is made not to risk it in whole or part but to keep...
this makes sense to me now..

such as an investment into a network company that can create a steady paycheck. initial investment may be a few months fee but eventually you will start making profits. the only risk on the investment is not being able to find anyone who will join the marketing company or purchase the product.

there definitely are "risk free" ways to make income out there. or essentially riskless. or the risk is highly affordable. i guess that would draw the line between an investment and a bet. the risk chance must be low and the cost of the risk must be low.

such as dealing drugs. if it were legal, it would be 100% risk free. is dealing drugs an investment because its essentially risk free (from a financial standpoint)? hmm, doesn't make much sense to me.


so is growing food. its pretty much risk free and is another form of residual income

-growing things (food+agriculture, timber)
-carry trades with positive carry swap (much less risky if its a long term trade setup with fundamental support, such as long audjpy last year)
-network marketing
-owning apartment building (only risk is falling value or the building destroyed, but falling value can usually be compensated quite quickly by rent profits)
-owning hard asset producing companies

-etc etc, got any others to list?

network marketing should be a traders best friend. it makes trading less like gambling if you have a steady paycheck you direct towards your accounts growth.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,849
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:19am Aug 4, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Wallah, I couldn't understand the table. Traced precendents and dependents but no use, too much for me. But based on my experience of doing this kind of a shit for hours, days, weeks and months it seems to be something like power of increasing/deminishing returns. What it means. Let's say one takes risk of 20% per trade, this what gonna happen over 10 trades: All Losers: 100 > 80 64 51 41 33 26 21 17 14 11 (You lose $89) All winners: 100> 120 144 173 208 250 300 360 432 518 622 (You gain $522) Holy (whatever)! we got the grail.
Yes. Obviously the table is for people who can do the next step.
1% daily profit is 22% per month. Doubling the account in 4 months.
If you can do it. Account of $ 10 thousand will gives you a $ 2,200 per month. Or here all want to become billionaires?
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #820,850
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:24am Aug 4, 2013 12:24am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} people have been saying for years euro is going to disappear. it is still here at a rate about 1.33 to the dollar right now.
True, but there is much more to it.

"Logically" Euro is the only currency that should get status of a reserve currency. A student of World's History knows why a reseve currency should not be dependent on policies of one or two powerful countries. Gold is the best money. If not gold, at least some sort of risk diversification should be there. Euro is not perfect and yet an infant currency model, but at least not dependent on policies of one single country. We should again refer to a Student of History...................... though we have all learned from history ...........or maybe not yet

ps. ffleo, to me its not the Value but Stability that is important.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #820,851
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:27am Aug 4, 2013 12:27am
Quoting inpatient
{quote} WOW. that is quite a difference. FFleo - When studying the COT reports you should only really be concerned with the large speculators (as described on your chart). They essentially move the market and the reports for the past few weeks have shown they have plateaud somewhat. Still net short but no longer adding to positions. The next stage is closing positions and even maybe reversing.
Then Larry Williams is in all his books and strategies wrong? He does use mainly the Commercials.......
  • #820,852
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:29am Aug 4, 2013 12:29am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} True, but there is much more to it. "Logically" Euro is the only currency that should get status of a reserve currency. A student of World's History knows why a reseve currency should not be dependent on policies of one or two powerful countries. Gold is the best money. If not gold, at least some sort of risk diversification should be there. Euro is not perfect and yet an infant currency model, but at least not dependent on policies of one single country. We should again refer to a Student of History...................... though we have...



1.60 is exposed...

but..

1.36 first
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,853
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:32am Aug 4, 2013 12:32am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes. Obviously the table is for people who can do the next step. 1% daily profit is 22% per month. Doubling the account in 4 months. If you can do it. Account of $ 10 thousand will gives you a $ 2,200 per month. Or here all want to become billionaires?
Well said. There's no reason to go for anything too crazy.

I wrote this a while ago and need to do a better job sticking to it.

High Yield Using Proper Money Management

-- Growing an account 1000% in a year using a risk per trade of 0.50% or less is not impossible. However it is very, very unlikely. But it is much more likely you can do it in 3 years using proper money management. Most peoples only problem in Forex is patience. They win some and they recklessly lose it back thinking they can make a whole year in 1 day.

With $10,000 starting bank roll, if you have the patience and skill enough to even make 10% per month and compound each previous months ending balance, you will make 213% in 1 year (~$31,300). That's not much money? Okay, well can you keep this up for 5 years? Because that's some serious money. And 10? All the money you could ever dream of.

For calculation purposes we will use a raw 30% tax per year even on the first year (you will very likely be taxed less as tax law is favorable to spot FX traders) to show at the very minimum what will be made if you can continue to make 210% per year (or in that ball park).

So after year 1 of taxes you lose ~$6000 of your $21k profits). Year 2 the account starts at $25,000. After another 210% gain, the account is at $77,500. Taxes of 30% on profits of ($52500) are $15,750). So the account is back to $61750 for year 3. After a 210% gain, the account ends year 3 at $191425. Taxes of 30% on profits of $129675 leave $90700 in net profit. Year 4 starts with $152200. After a 210% gain, year 4 ends with $471820. After a 30% tax on profit of $319500, the total net profit for year 4 is $223700. Year 5 begins with $376000. After a 210% gain, year 5 ends with the account at $1165000 ($1m mark). After taxes of 30% on profits of $789000, year 5 ends with a net profit of $552000. That means the 6th year starts with $930,000.

So after 5 years the profit on $10,000 was $920,000. 92,000% in 5 years.

Yeah. Just imagine what that $920,000 another 5 years of hard work and proper MM will do for your account (hint: more money than you could ever know what to do with).

PATIENCE is the KEY.

Now you know how I personally target yield in FX. 10% per month target. After hitting target I stop for month and continue my high risk scalping on sub-accounts.



If you want to try and be a millionaire in a year, do yourself and your money a favor and open a sub-account, fund it with $50 or $100, and make 1 trade per day on it risking 5% or even 10% of the account.

If you can succeed in making 15% a week, which means each week you will probably have 3 winners and 2 losers, you will turn that $100 into $100,000 in 1 year. If you can manage 20% a week, that is $100 into $1,000,000 in 1 year. There is just NO reason to start with more than $100. Good luck.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,854
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:41am Aug 4, 2013 12:41am
audusd daily

the beauty of trading small = cost basis advantage, obviously keeping risk in mind first and foremost.

going to move my buy limits and stop loss down though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,855
  • Aug 4, 2013 12:46am Aug 4, 2013 12:46am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Well said. There's no reason to go for anything too crazy. I wrote this a while ago and need to do a better job sticking to it. High Yield Using Proper Money Management -- Growing an account 1000% in a year using a risk per trade of 0.50% or less is not impossible. However it is very, very unlikely. But it is much more likely you can do it in 3 years using proper money management. Most peoples only problem in Forex is patience. They win some and they recklessly lose it back thinking they can make a whole year in 1 day. With $10,000 starting...
WTF you are talking about man!
I am 89 and have no much time.
When I go to someone's funeral, think twice before coming back home.............. maybe I save a trip.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #820,856
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:03am Aug 4, 2013 1:03am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} i also doubt the usefulness of COT report on currencies. CME FX futures daily liquidity is about $105 billion. The FX spot is about 4 trillion now. The futures market is about 2.5% of the spot market.

Hi FFleo,

sadly, all participants here seem to not be impressed about the fact, that the CASH market is by far the biggest one.

Spot, Forward Swaps and Forwards make nearly all the volume, with options only accounting for a tiny fraction.


So the question is and remains:

do option, option barriers, pin risk etc. play a big role when determining supply and demand?



I tend to think yes, because, you can take this data as proxy for sentiment of the participants. But that would only be of value, when the big boys were part of this option games, too.

Are they? Or are they simply, most of the time, the receiving side of this table? I have seen it times and again that barriers etc. were overrun in a hurry, without even looking back.


So at the end, at least for me, knowing the options data in Forex is a nice thing, but i my view should not be the biggest factor you should hedge your bets against.


What does HDA say to this argument? Inquiring minds want to know
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  • #820,857
  • Edited 1:15am Aug 4, 2013 1:05am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} WTF you are talking about man! I am 89 and have no much time. When I go to someone's funeral, think twice before coming back home.............. maybe I save a trip.
if you hate life that much why not?



go for the risk 50% to make 100% strategy. start with $500.

take 10 trades over the next 6 months with a 1:2 RR. win them all and you make 500k

win the first one and you guarantee break even if you have a loss.

have fun and good luck chicky, hopefully you make it to 90.

if you live to tell the story, please come back and share it
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #820,858
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:09am Aug 4, 2013 1:09am
we will not bring our account when we're RIP. no signal and no broker in that other world. we need no money there....everything is free..including the hell

happy weekend
not euphoria follower
  • #820,859
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:16am Aug 4, 2013 1:16am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} if you hate life that much why not? go for the risk 50% to make 100% strategy. start with $500. take 10 trades over the next 6 months with a 1:2 RR. win them all and you make 500k win the first one and you guarantee break even if you have a loss. have fun and good luck chicky, hopefully you make ,it to 90. :nerd: if you live to tell the story, please come back and share it
Wow! Thanks for sharing this nugget.

I will leave all my wealth for you. Five wives, 36 goats, 16 camels, 3 hawks, 6 drums of honey and 380 viagra pills.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #820,860
  • Aug 4, 2013 1:40am Aug 4, 2013 1:40am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} 0.1to 0.6 lots mean 10,000 to 60,000 currency units. That means profit/loss of $1 to $6 per pip For 60 pip Stop-loss it comes out to be $60 to $360 For an account of $1,000, this is a risk of 6% to 36% Average risk is 21% of account equity I don’t say this risk is high or low, but what I know is that: 1.Only one loss will significantly reduce the operating capacity of this account. That means, after only one loss, this account won’t be able to open the next position of same number of units. This in turn means a winner of much more than 60...
Wise words... Thanks for reminding us all about the absolute essential in this industry.
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