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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,161
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:47am Jul 26, 2013 7:47am
Looking like it's thinking about giving up
  • #8,162
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:49am Jul 26, 2013 7:49am
4th test on the weekly 50 FIB on the 15M in the last 20 bars.

Next few bars is gonna be the decider for me.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,163
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:53am Jul 26, 2013 7:53am
Well lads its been one way since my gu target 1.543 hit. When ej hits 130.3 I will also come out of gy. Good luck to all and have a very drunk weekend.
  • #8,164
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:11am Jul 26, 2013 8:11am
Said I was gonna stay out.. but after getting home from work and catching up I did notice t his on the weekly..

Is this a Head and shoulders? I don't normally base a trading decision on these.. but contained within the current "shoulder" on the daily is a H and S .. Not the clearest of ones .. but also one other interesting thing I read on the forum.


GBP has fallen against the JPY fairly regularly in august.. I don't think thats coincidence.. Could have to do with agriculture.. Not entirely sure. But any way. Going for another short and fully expecting this could last through the weekend, depending on what happens here in the next few hours with some data coming out.


TP on the picture isn't my goal.. mainly just in case situations I guess..
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Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,165
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:17am Jul 26, 2013 8:17am
Im out my longs now. If we pull back to the 50 then i'm gonna short and scalp
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,166
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:45am Jul 26, 2013 8:45am
Quoting EatPIPs
Im out my longs now. If we pull back to the 50 then i'm gonna short and scalp
That's where I'm at now... got some short orders lined up a bit higher. See if they get filled
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #8,167
  • Jul 26, 2013 8:57am Jul 26, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} That's where I'm at now... got some short orders lined up a bit higher. See if they get filled
Quite, after taking a good battering on your longs good man.
  • #8,168
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:02am Jul 26, 2013 9:02am
Wow...was not expecting this....account taken a battering....cut my losses or let this ride back
  • #8,169
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:05am Jul 26, 2013 9:05am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} That's where I'm at now... got some short orders lined up a bit higher. See if they get filled
To be honest dude, I know this pair usually sniffs some coke on Friday's but I didn't expect it to take out the weekly 38.2 today. Hell no!

The 4HR is so oversold I can't help myself but load up some longs here back to the 50. Let's see if I can make some of today's losses back man!
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,170
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:10am Jul 26, 2013 9:10am
That cycle low that started on wednesday has a target so far down there it's not funny. usd/jpy measures well down to 92.77. G/J may get dragged , huh!
..
but the usd is tanking so if we de-couple from the usd/jpy...that would be different. my view for three years has been a race to the bottom for the US dollar....that sends the stockmarkets up...way up....
  • #8,171
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:15am Jul 26, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
That cycle low that started on wednesday has a target so far down there it's not funny. usd/jpy measures well down to 92.77. G/J may get dragged , huh! .. but the usd is tanking so if we de-couple from the usd/jpy...that would be different. my view for three years has been a race to the bottom for the US dollar....that sends the stockmarkets up...way up....
Its q jest ion of balance. How do you thinkjgb printing 10% a ya works out. Well to me it prints nuclear war.
  • #8,172
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:21am Jul 26, 2013 9:21am
Knew I was probably right when I was getting laughed at, grr shoulda stayed short whole time haha

Woulda Coulda Shoulda!


Super depressing.
  • #8,173
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:36am Jul 26, 2013 9:36am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} How will knowing my results affect your trading? Just to add something else, I could tell you +1000 or -1000, would it really make a difference? And one more thing, as you mentioned in your previous post about trying to apply a strategy from UJ to GJ, if you don't have "a" strategy that is profitable overall then you can apply as many different strategies as you want, your gonna end in the red. You got to know your plan dude inside out. Win or loose don't make a difference. Plan is a plan. Not saying you don't have a solid plan but this...
Once again thanks for your comment EatPIPs! In somehow I agree with you that in order to achieve a positive result you must have a plan. And I must tell you that I had a plan...but it went wrong!

I tried using moving averages crossovers, Stochastic, MACD and so on, but the problem was always the same...profits were always worse than lose.

Now I have tried using only PA, resistance and support levels but...

Money management...this is another thing that is for sure important but what is the real meaning for that? You must invest let's say 1.000€ and then only risking 3% per trade. This means for example opening 1 mini lot with SL at 40 pips and TP at 80 PIPS...

I have the impression that almost all people that are on these forums if they trade with real money they loose...
  • #8,174
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:36am Jul 26, 2013 9:36am
On the timimg of that cycle low...Remember, Ian... my bud's date was aug 12......mine is the 23rd.....my little mind is trying to put global condition into it and that seems to be fruitless.....dang european vacation started in July......the paradigm is shifting.....
..
Ian is a smart sob..hails from Singapore.....someone tell him he needs to move to Dallas....quick....( so I can grill him over on this )( get him smoked up maybe he'll tell me all his secrets)
  • #8,175
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:37am Jul 26, 2013 9:37am
It might have finished. And if it has, it might be at the base of a rising wedge - or at least a retrace
  • #8,176
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:38am Jul 26, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote] ........Personally, I think the short yen may get tired out for a while. It's down 10+% this year alone. The BoJ can only do so much, IMO. They can keep buying but the JGB risk of going haywire. I think central banks are bitting off a bit more than they can chew.
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} holding at about my S2 ( I think I put R in my last post). I think london will take it to town for another 60 pips. I am short USDJPY and AUDJPY. I was short geppy yesterday, but GBP's failure to decline was frustrating and got out of hit. That was a head to the wall moment. I'm just kind of relaxing with my beverage, watching yen and dabbling in some binary option action. Really makes you key into your entry/exit skills lol {image}

Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I think so, at least a few hounded more pips to get started. I think it will get pushed into that consolidated zone. Reason being the yen is down quite a bit. The BoJ can only purchase so much, IMO. There will be a point to which it have to contain purchasing over a period of time which should increase yen. CPI also increased fasted pace in 5 years. If inflation continues, yen goes higher. The funny thing is all things yen get so overextended in either way the snap backs to medians are massive. Tops/bottoms are usually spotted when price...






its like the moon and stars aligned lol
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,177
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:41am Jul 26, 2013 9:41am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} {quote} {quote} its like the moon and stars aligned lol {image} {image}

hahaha, hope you're making lots of pips on this. UJ will go to 95 minimum, don't care what anyone says. Might not be in a straight line, but it's coming to a broker near you in August.
  • #8,178
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:48am Jul 26, 2013 9:48am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} hahaha, hope you're making lots of pips on this. UJ will go to 95 minimum, don't care what anyone says. Might not be in a straight line, but it's coming to a broker near you in August.

I know this is not a UJ thread, but the "problem" I have with the 95 argument is illustrated in this near perfect geometry - which may well get larger yet follow the same appearance.

What you see is either a reversal (probably not) or continuation - a perfect example too - almost as if was "designed" on purpose . ahem.
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  • #8,179
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:51am Jul 26, 2013 9:51am
The problem with that is this isn't geometry class, it's the forex market. You may be right, but take a look at the nikkei and tell me you think that has no downside. It's going to get sold off hard and so will UJ. Now we're seeing a -1% down move in UJ and dollar pairs aren't even up, this is going to be a brutal sell off.
  • #8,180
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:56am Jul 26, 2013 9:56am
I can see where your coming from though, mpt.. however fib levels are the most important math in this game.. for a lot of technical/natural/spiritual reasons. Right now as far as our 3 month top/bottom range goes.. we're currently sitting on 61 retracement.. Thats THE most important fib. If we fall through that.. we could be changing targets to an extension of that number.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
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