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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,121
  • Jul 25, 2013 7:02pm Jul 25, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I traded all the majors and a few crosses on black box systems for a hedge fund in Chicago back in the day
...

This place...she never gets old!

Stay championed...purple-hooded jedi, princess knight.
  • #8,122
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:41pm Jul 25, 2013 8:41pm
Might have another move tonight.. but it seems likwe need a few more straws to break this camels back.. hah
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,123
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:46pm Jul 25, 2013 8:46pm
1.543 hit overnight as I mentioned so let's see where go over next few days. Cheers
  • #8,124
  • Jul 25, 2013 9:05pm Jul 25, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting Pumpndump
1.543 hit overnight as I mentioned so let's see where go over next few days. Cheers
And I mentioned yen upside. Interesting to see it rise so much which was mainly due to GBP, but large pip ranges is what GBPJPY is known for. Yen is getting really overdone short-term. Probably a pullback, increase in Geppy at some point.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,125
  • Edited 9:57pm Jul 25, 2013 9:43pm | Edited 9:57pm
This thing could fall hard, but I'm expecting 98.84 level to hold for now. Have closed out a short I had and am now long. 98.81. I have absolutely no doubt it cann fall to 98.50 tonight. Below that level would be absurdly dangerous as i see the next support at 97.


We break 98.70 I'm out and will try to re-enter at 98.50. I am a bit concerned about this move here, it could really fall worse than people think. but for now market seems to be ranging, so we'll see!


As I said earlier, I expect a 99.33-98.84 range or so for now. So I am shooting for 99.30 with this one and will let it run. About a 1:5 RR here
  • #8,126
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:07pm Jul 25, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting Ck87
This thing could fall hard, but I'm expecting 98.84 level to hold for now. Have closed out a short I had and am now long. 98.81. I have absolutely no doubt it cann fall to 98.50 tonight. Below that level would be absurdly dangerous as i see the next support at 97. We break 98.70 I'm out and will try to re-enter at 98.50. I am a bit concerned about this move here, it could really fall worse than people think. but for now market seems to be ranging, so we'll see! As I said earlier, I expect a 99.33-98.84 range or so for now. So I am shooting for 99.30...
Like I said, short-term I think yen shorts are crowded. I see USDJPY R1 98.88, R2 98.68 and R2 98.26. I'm thinking London wants to get into this.

Watch yen futures around 2:30 Eastern US time. It typically directions London's direction
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,127
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:12pm Jul 25, 2013 10:12pm
Yeah, I hear you, I think the nikkei is giving warning signals, as it looks like it's ready for another decent size drop. This would go hand in hand with UJ dropping. Right after the election and even leading up to it was super bearish on UJ waiting for the opportunity to short the pair. I think we might be at the point where we could see the mkt fall a couple hundred pips. It's taken a little longer than i expected because all markets were ranging, but now we're starting to see EU break out stronger and UJ fall lower. 99.33ish area will be the new spot to conquer. Stil very hard to know where this is going, but UJ weakness seems to be the path of least resistance for now.
  • #8,128
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:16pm Jul 25, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting Baterfx
Looks like 152 will hold this week on GBPJPY , still looking to 154
looking dangerous now
  • #8,129
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:27pm Jul 25, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting Ck87
Yeah, I hear you, I think the nikkei is giving warning signals, as it looks like it's ready for another decent size drop. This would go hand in hand with UJ dropping. Right after the election and even leading up to it was super bearish on UJ waiting for the opportunity to short the pair. I think we might be at the point where we could see the mkt fall a couple hundred pips. It's taken a little longer than i expected because all markets were ranging, but now we're starting to see EU break out stronger and UJ fall lower. 99.33ish area will be the...
I think so, at least a few hounded more pips to get started. I think it will get pushed into that consolidated zone. Reason being the yen is down quite a bit. The BoJ can only purchase so much, IMO. There will be a point to which it have to contain purchasing over a period of time which should increase yen. CPI also increased fasted pace in 5 years. If inflation continues, yen goes higher.

The funny thing is all things yen get so overextended in either way the snap backs to medians are massive. Tops/bottoms are usually spotted when price sputters out over a few candles.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,130
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:39pm Jul 25, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I think so, at least a few hounded more pips to get started. I think it will get pushed into that consolidated zone. Reason being the yen is down quite a bit. The BoJ can only purchase so much, IMO. There will be a point to which it have to contain purchasing over a period of time which should increase yen. CPI also increased fasted pace in 5 years. If inflation continues, yen goes higher. The funny thing is all things yen get so overextended in either way the snap backs to medians are massive. Tops/bottoms are usually spotted when price...

I still think it's likely UJ will make new highs either later this year or next year. BOJ has said they will print UNLIMITED amounts of money. Think the selling now is more technical and a matter of shaking out weak players. Then again, who really knows. The move is way over extended.

Back when UJ was below 80 at the 77 area or so I figured it was a good long term to play to the 105 level. Now I'm thinking 120 level is attainable in coming years. If so, I hope to ride that trend all the way Pips!!

God, UJ looks so awful right now. 98.50 is almost guaranteed tonight.
  • #8,131
  • Edited 11:06pm Jul 25, 2013 10:54pm | Edited 11:06pm
One more push lower and we're long G/J.... at 151.80 going for 154.40, just because I dreamed that level up two days ago, but the trade never quite got there....and....and I was....I was sleeping.....yep, there was no one there to pusha tha buttona...we need form an affiliation,men....to cover all the little profit times...
..
do you guys remember alert fx....for free they would sms ya of any price touches you cared to enter....up to 100 alerts at a time.... that would do it....
.
hey...se ya in a minute...I gotta go see if they're still up and running....
  • #8,132
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:16pm Jul 25, 2013 11:16pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
One more push lower and we're long G/J.... at 151.80 going for 154.40, just because I dreamed that level up two days ago, but the trade never quite got there....and....and I was....I was sleeping.....yep, there was no one there to pusha tha buttona...we need form an affiliation,men....to cover all the little profit times... .. do you guys remember alert fx....for free they would sms ya of any price touches you cared to enter....up to 100 alerts at a time.... that would do it.... . hey...se ya in a minute...I gotta go see if they're still up and...
my newbie analysis of 4H says something similar (minus the 154 target)
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  • #8,133
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:23pm Jul 25, 2013 11:23pm
An expanding triangle within an expanding triangle. Bullish until it breaks the red line.


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  • #8,134
  • Edited Jul 26, 2013 12:25am Jul 25, 2013 11:45pm | Edited Jul 26, 2013 12:25am
Quoting Chubbly
I am now trading the exact opposite of whatever you say and it makes me money
Good for you if it works. I just woke up to a nice 50 pip profit so I'll take that. The only reason this strategy might work though is because I'm in the worst trading slump of my life. But good luck to you, sir.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,135
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:24am Jul 26, 2013 12:24am
And Down she goes.


Woulda coulda shoulda stayed short Especially when i sold the damn near highs other night! Oooh where's my crystal ball?

Nikkei gettin hit, this should only be the beginning
  • #8,136
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:25am Jul 26, 2013 12:25am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Good for you if it works. I just woke up to a nice 50 pip profit so I'll take that. The only reason this strategy might work though is because I'm in the worst trading slump of my life. But good luck to you, sir. I'm wondering if I should just post my system here and share it with the world. That way, at least people can see what I see and maybe we could even gather enough momentum to actually move the market... LOL. I doubt it, I know, but like Ck said, there's nothing wrong with dreaming Who knows, maybe someone will have...
Sorry, what are you referring to. I can't remember what it was referring to been up way longer than I needed to be.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,137
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:28am Jul 26, 2013 12:28am
Quoting Ck87
And Down she goes.
holding at about my S2 ( I think I put R in my last post). I think london will take it to town for another 60 pips. I am short USDJPY and AUDJPY.

I was short geppy yesterday, but GBP's failure to decline was frustrating and got out of hit. That was a head to the wall moment.

I'm just kind of relaxing with my beverage, watching yen and dabbling in some binary option action. Really makes you key into your entry/exit skills lol
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,138
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:30am Jul 26, 2013 12:30am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Sorry, what are you referring to. I can't remember what it was referring to been up way longer than I needed to be.
Nothing. It doesn't matter anymore. I'm stupid. Just forget about it all.

Obviously, there is a lot of selling going on and this is why I'm such a bad trader because I can't ever follow my f*ing system. It's screaming loud and clear, and I can't even follow it.

I was short GJ yesterday too from 153.65, but I was unaware of the GBP data that came out in the AM and I closed out of my short RIGHT before the big move... go f*ing figure!!!

I was just referring to your long-term thoughts on GBP/JPY? I am talking very long term here. I think that with so many countries printing money around the world including Japan, the inflation thesis is still very much in tact and therefore, I think GJ will hit 251 before it hits 120. I see the inflation as a valid reason for GJ to keep going up and up and up... to the moon. Do you agree with this?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,139
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:32am Jul 26, 2013 12:32am
All the yen pairs have bottomed out for a very very very long time. Most probably will never see those lows again. That's why I'm hoping they get sold off super hard in coming weeks. Along with the Nikkei, I want to go super long and get in on the massive trend up! Don't want to sit in front of a screen day trading all the time. I much prefer to get in on trends and ride them out for what could be months and even years.
  • #8,140
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:37am Jul 26, 2013 12:37am
Quoting Ck87
All the yen pairs have bottomed out for a very very very long time. Most probably will never see those lows again.
And so I thought... thanks for the answer.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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