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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,141
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:38am Jul 26, 2013 12:38am
Quoting kenfen69
{quote} ... This place...she never gets old! Stay championed...purple-hooded jedi, princess knight.
What, don't believe me Ken?
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  • #8,142
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:40am Jul 26, 2013 12:40am
Quoting Ck87
Still bullish on UJ Geppy? Might range 99.33-98.84 now, fell under that trend line, but markets aren't trending right now so doubt it really matters. Messed up on my GU trade by not taking profit at 1.5268 support level I had drawn out so didn't make so much on that trade when I got out like 50 pts higher. Thinking UJ will go higher from here back to 99.87-100 maybe tonight.... Would be a buyer under 99 and already attempting to go for a rally with tight/break even stops. Does seem like it wants to head to 99 or sub 99 at least once more, hope it...
I'm sidelined for now.

Went out to dinner with the fiance and had the SLs get hit. I don't anything compelling enough will happen between now and tomorrow to make me want to initiate anything before the weekend.
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  • #8,143
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:40am Jul 26, 2013 12:40am
Hmm could very well have bottomed for the night.
  • #8,144
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:44am Jul 26, 2013 12:44am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Nothing. It doesn't matter anymore. I'm stupid. Just forget about it all. Obviously, there is a lot of selling going on and this is why I'm such a bad trader because I can't ever follow my f*ing system. It's screaming loud and clear, and I can't even follow it. I was short GJ yesterday too from 153.65, but I was unaware of the GBP data that came out in the AM and I closed out of my short RIGHT before the big move... go f*ing figure!!! I was just referring to your long-term thoughts on GBP/JPY? I am talking very long term here. I think that...
I know what you mean. You just got to stick with it. Long-term yen pairs will be higher. I don't know if GBPJPY will be that high. I can't say that I know where it will be in 5 years, but I believe 160-162 is a fair price within the next 12 months. Because geppy hasn't seen these levels often I had to extend the chart out and use "price memory" for high probability touching points.

If we get through 153.65 and 156.65, 162 could be ripe for the picking
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-26-TOS_GBPJPY.png Size: 146 KB
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,145
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:03am Jul 26, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Pip Anon
I know what you mean. You just got to stick with it. Long-term yen pairs will be higher. I don't know if GBPJPY will be that high. I can't say that I know where it will be in 5 years, but I believe 160-162 is a fair price within the next 12 months. Because geppy hasn't seen these levels often I had to extend the chart out and use "price memory" for high probability touching points. If we get through 153.65 and 156.65, 162 could be ripe for the picking {image}
Thanks for the response. I understand and agree with you. I think 163 is not too far away as well. However, it seems you have a good knowledge of economics and the forces that are driving this market. With your understanding that the bond market could implode at any given time, wouldn't that be more reason to think that Geppy could keep climbing higher to infinity? A bit of an exaggeration, but not entirely. LOL

I am sure you know much, much more about bond markets than I do, but this is what I keep thinking.
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  • #8,146
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:06am Jul 26, 2013 1:06am
I can't say if she's bottomed out for the night, I think there may be a little left in the current move before the week finishes. Wanted to share my chart.

154 has served as a very strong resistance and I see no reason why that should change right now with the last day or 2 of trading. We're still in a Bullish Trend, and I see no reason to think that we're going to be Bearish until we see a close below the trendline which currently sits just above 150.

Below 150 we have a range between 146-147 that also should be looked out for as it provided Support/Resistance on the extraordinary breakout above 150.

I closed my short on GBP/JPY not too long ago, and I think its best to just wait and see what signs she gives us next, unlikely anything relevant on longer timeframes will present itself before the weekend.

Safe Trading.
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  • #8,147
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:06am Jul 26, 2013 1:06am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Thanks for the response. I understand and agree with you. I think 163 is not too far away as well. However, it seems you have a good knowledge of economics and the forces that are driving this market. With your understanding that the bond market could implode at any given time, wouldn't that be more reason to think that Geppy could keep climbing higher to infinity? A bit of an exaggeration, but not entirely. LOL I am sure you know much, much more about bond markets than I do, but this is what I keep thinking.
I actually need to brush up on my bonds to be honest, however I believe the yen would increase given JGB rates skyrocket. Ill have to fact check that though
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,148
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:17am Jul 26, 2013 1:17am
Quoting Syntrader
I can't say if she's bottomed out for the night, I think there may be a little left in the current move before the week finishes. Wanted to share my chart. 154 has served as a very strong resistance and I see no reason why that should change right now with the last day or 2 of trading. We're still in a Bullish Trend, and I see no reason to think that we're going to be Bearish until we see a close below the trendline which currently sits just above 150. Below 150 we have a range between 146-147 that also should be looked out for as it provided Support/Resistance...
she better have bottomed for the next few hours damnit! I want a rally!
  • #8,149
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:26am Jul 26, 2013 1:26am
Hey dudes,

4HR 50 FIB being held nicely so far on the 15M candle closes.

Im still holding my longs, have no reason to cut them loose. This area should hold firmly. If it doesn't it could be another story.

I have 5 levels that are going to hiccup if we get back to 154 anytime soon, 152.34, 153.33, 153.64, 153.86 & of course 154.2.

153.7 area would be a nice place to end this week.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,150
  • Jul 26, 2013 2:16am Jul 26, 2013 2:16am
Quoting Syntrader
I can't say if she's bottomed out for the night, I think there may be a little left in the current move before the week finishes. Wanted to share my chart. 154 has served as a very strong resistance and I see no reason why that should change right now with the last day or 2 of trading. We're still in a Bullish Trend, . {image}
thank you.
deep RoT is essential for everlasting happyness
  • #8,151
  • Jul 26, 2013 3:51am Jul 26, 2013 3:51am
Definitely agreed were still overall bullish.. but to be fair we may never see the lows from over a year ago again.. unless Britain becomes a third world nation.. hah. Might be going down for yet a while but I'm out for the near future.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,152
  • Jul 26, 2013 3:57am Jul 26, 2013 3:57am
Todays low has so far bounced off the weekly 50 FIB and the upper EC TL.

Theoretically would like to see it go back to 152.21 for this to resume upwards from next week.

If it pops through 151.6, potentially i'd be looking to short to 151.16 - 150.57.

Even though it's Friday, money is still moving so im still in the game
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,153
  • Jul 26, 2013 4:11am Jul 26, 2013 4:11am
Hmm lesson learnt for this GJ..I went in with too much for the whipsaws.
  • #8,154
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:11am Jul 26, 2013 5:11am
Quoting EatPIPs
Hey dudes, 4HR 50 FIB being held nicely so far on the 15M candle closes. Im still holding my longs, have no reason to cut them loose. This area should hold firmly. If it doesn't it could be another story. I have 5 levels that are going to hiccup if we get back to 154 anytime soon, 152.34, 153.33, 153.64, 153.86 & of course 154.2. 153.7 area would be a nice place to end this week.
Hi EatPIPs, I think you are too optimistic!...I really hope will happen what you said because I have still opened 3 lots at 152.1 with stop loss at 151.6...and I have also some open position of USDJPY...but frankly I think the bias has dramatically changed. Japan this night has been very negative and this make me think that we'll see further movement in favor of the yen.

Unfortunately I am very unlucky with forex and this time I belived that I guessed a nice up movement ...but instead at the end also this trad has been a disaster!

If I bought gbpjpy the 16th of June then I would have been always positive...but I instead decided to buy the 1st of July and therefore after some nice movement on my favour I had losses and then I entered again, other losses...then some gain and then again since yesterday morning some very big loss!

I am very depressed today! I really hope to see a very positive Michigan Consumer Sentiment today...at least I hope I will gain some dollars (but I am negative also on that...)

Let's see!
  • #8,155
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:16am Jul 26, 2013 5:16am
Quoting apfrezza
{quote} Hi EatPIPs, I think you are too optimistic!...I really hope will happen what you said because I have still opened 3 lots at 152.1 with stop loss at 151.6...and I have also some open position of USDJPY...but frankly I think the bias has dramatically changed. Japan this night has been very negative and this make me think that we'll see further movement in favor of the yen. Unfortunately I am very unlucky with forex and this time I belived that I guessed a nice up movement ...but instead at the end also this trad has been a disaster! If I bought...
Just giving my point of view dude.

I have stopped trading "short term" for a while now even though I do refer to the shorter TFs to see levels.

All I am saying personally is that if we do not close above 152.2 by the end of today then I will be taking out all my longs and if we close below 151.6 at any point today then I will be closing my longs and sitting on the sidelines until Monday as I won't be opening any new positions today.

That's my view.


At the end of the day we are bullish overall and I could keep my longs open as long as I want to, days, weeks, months, but instead of sitting in DD, I prefer to take a loss and regain my profits.

Not every trade works out!
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,156
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:38am Jul 26, 2013 5:38am
Perfect level for a rally in UJ, I guess one can argue 98.25 would be better, Hoping we don't see a nasty friday sell off for 1.5-2% and price can head back toward 99+
  • #8,157
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:44am Jul 26, 2013 5:44am
Thank you EatPIPs.

What you said was exactly the same thing that I was doing in the last month! ...and thanks to this way of doing I opened 4 lots of USDJPY at 97,7 at the end of June. I was almost sure that we could have touched at least 104, but instead it touched 101,8 and then started its decline! I decided to continue being in that trade but now it seems 97,7 will soon be touched again and I don't want loose money on that trade!

I tried to use the same strategy also with GBPJPY but unfortunately the trades have been a disaster so far. In some moment it seemed I was earning some money but now...

EatPIPs, can I ask you something: without telling me a lie. How much (pips) you earned/loss last two/three months?
  • #8,158
  • Edited 6:20am Jul 26, 2013 5:58am | Edited 6:20am
UJ couldn't look more horrendous. The bears can literally throw it down another 100 points if they wanted to right now. Pretty sure UJ hasn't come up more than 5 pips in over an hour, this looks horrific. Wonder how low this is going today
  • #8,159
  • Jul 26, 2013 6:04am Jul 26, 2013 6:04am
Quoting apfrezza
EatPIPs, can I ask you something: without telling me a lie. How much (pips) you earned/loss last two/three months?
How will knowing my results affect your trading?

Just to add something else, I could tell you +1000 or -1000, would it really make a difference?

And one more thing, as you mentioned in your previous post about trying to apply a strategy from UJ to GJ, if you don't have "a" strategy that is profitable overall then you can apply as many different strategies as you want, your gonna end in the red. You got to know your plan dude inside out. Win or loose don't make a difference. Plan is a plan. Not saying you don't have a solid plan but this pair isn't something I would recommend "trying" something out on using a live account.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,160
  • Jul 26, 2013 6:36am Jul 26, 2013 6:36am
Closed out shorts. I am starting to think EURUSD may topple over. it's formation intraday looks a lot like the formation just before the 1.3416 fall
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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