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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,261
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:14am Jul 24, 2013 2:14am
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Trying another long? After we just fell straight back to support? ...I'll be looking for a short set-up.
Well that is the nature of support, price is supposed to move up from there.
But as you can see support seems to have shifted up slightly.
Saying that one of my setups indicates going short @ 100.60, or thereabouts with SL 101.60.

In fact we seem to be in a congestion zone, which is perhaps no surprise given the proximity of Parity.
The daily chart has formed a pennant after 8th July, the descending upper edge currently around 100.60 !!
On the 12hr price is currently running up with the 50MA.
On 4hr price is in a rising channel, on the attached chart the upper line is cloned from the lower line.

On 1hr there is a confirmed descending trendline from 19th July through yesterday's high, currently 99.95 is the entry for a 50-pip short.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130724_4hr_UsdJpy.PNG Size: 56 KB
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,262
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:43pm Jul 24, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Well that is the nature of support, price is supposed to move up from there. But as you can see support seems to have shifted up slightly. Saying that one of my setups indicates going short @ 100.60, or thereabouts with SL 101.60. In fact we seem to be in a congestion zone, which is perhaps no surprise given the proximity of Parity. The daily chart has formed a pennant after 8th July, the descending upper edge currently around 100.60 !! On the 12hr price is currently running up with the 50MA. On 4hr price is in a rising channel, on the attached...
Touche sir. Daily and 4H view of the pennant you speak of.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t59.PNG Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: t60.PNG Size: 38 KB
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,263
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:00pm Jul 24, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Touche sir. Daily and 4H view of the pennant you speak of. {image} {image}
big alignment tomorrow as Durable Goods due out. Good chance it will determine the direction of the triangle formation.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #35,264
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:41pm Jul 24, 2013 6:41pm
Hello

Not sure if this will make a difference


USD/JPY FX OPTIONS: multiple $100M+ option positions expire tomorrow at 99.75 and 100.50 strike prices.:nerd:
  • #35,265
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:56am Jul 25, 2013 2:56am
Both long and short scenarios presented. But speaking with some fundamental information, I'd prefer to see this pair go higher with Abe back in power and looking to further increase the monetary base. Only way this can break below is if there is overbearing USD bearishness + the additional risk of lower summer volumes/volatility (i.e. it is normally tougher to break major barriers during late summer trading).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 25-07-2013 07-54-46.png Size: 79 KB
  • #35,266
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:50am Jul 25, 2013 8:50am
4hour neckline break head and shoulders below the 99.50 region now
  • #35,267
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:51am Jul 25, 2013 11:51am
Quoting domino
4hour neckline break head and shoulders below the 99.50 region now
Yeah, maybe, but price did not break the lower trendline from my channel here.
It came so close that it counts as another trendline confirmation, imho.
I am long from 99.49, now stopped at BE + 1 (I am going out later..... ).
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,268
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:11pm Jul 25, 2013 12:11pm
oh the painfulness of trading longterm congestion on mid year volume
  • #35,269
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:26pm Jul 25, 2013 12:26pm
....aaghh! stopped out.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,270
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:29pm Jul 25, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting Exodus
....aaghh! stopped out.
kneckline still not broke tho stopped right on it
  • #35,271
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:31pm Jul 25, 2013 12:31pm
USD/JPY H1 CHART
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh1.png Size: 57 KB
  • #35,272
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:58pm Jul 25, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting davidsayli
USD/JPY H1 CHART {image}
Am Holding some long trades.. will be good if it goes up
Forex Learner
  • #35,273
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:22pm Jul 25, 2013 1:22pm
Is a 500 pip drop possible from here... I hope so
  • #35,274
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:33pm Jul 25, 2013 1:33pm
Loaded a long at 99.50 while keeping my 2 shorts at BE+25
  • #35,275
  • Jul 25, 2013 3:18pm Jul 25, 2013 3:18pm
I m holding some longs... though my account could bear 1000 pips drop. But what happened to usd?
  • #35,276
  • Jul 25, 2013 3:33pm Jul 25, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting Trader221
Is a 500 pip drop possible from here... I hope so
IMO it's not a matter of can it, but will it fall from here. Cause if it drops through that 152/152.2 area, I would expect that a lot of bulls will drop with it.. But it danced around the top of the range earlier in the week.

If you feel like a warrior, trade away! but I figure we'll get some more fake outs in both directions no matter where we go.

Check this out

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/fed-li...20130725-01312
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #35,277
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:38am Jul 26, 2013 1:38am
Looks like we might be finding some support forming on the m15.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2013-07-26-02-37-47.png Size: 105 KB
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,278
  • Jul 26, 2013 3:32am Jul 26, 2013 3:32am
Quoting livethedream
Looks like we might be finding some support forming on the m15. {image}
Not yet.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,279
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:45am Jul 26, 2013 5:45am
Long donwtrend

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDPJY - Weekly (26.07.2013).PNG Size: 28 KB


https://twitter.com/roma_kandelaki/s...590913/photo/1
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." — Warren
  • #35,280
  • Jul 26, 2013 7:46am Jul 26, 2013 7:46am
Quoting mr-roma
Long donwtrend {image} https://twitter.com/roma_kandelaki/s...590913/photo/1
technically speaking it may seems like an breakdown but I am having trouble finding any fundamental reasons for the yen to rise on any extended period.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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