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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,241
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:22am Jul 22, 2013 10:22am
Buy time..
  • #35,242
  • Jul 22, 2013 1:09pm Jul 22, 2013 1:09pm
USD/JPY H4 CHART

We may see an attack to the 103.50 very soon.
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  • #35,243
  • Jul 22, 2013 1:18pm Jul 22, 2013 1:18pm
Just a quickie (apologies for all the lines, most are irrelevant to this) - in reference to my earlier chart today - TILTS - I might have my required further upward tilt.
This is an experiment to see if I can achieve something I've never managed to do: predict on the hints the formation of new fork & required drop. These hints always appear beforehand, the blue line is parallel. I've joined 1-3 as the demarcation of the median line, and I'm reasonably happy with the current down trend nesting into its Fib behaviour. Need the price to move downward,the lower edge of the previous fork to break, (the red line), and a bounce to occur at C back to the ML.

This is pushing the boat out a bit, and can be inadvisable to trade this yet, as Fib retracements often have marked confluence.

In a few hours we might get further confirmation as the ML of the new fork acts as resistance, trapping the price at it's approx current level, then pushing it down.

We shall see.
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  • #35,244
  • Jul 22, 2013 2:46pm Jul 22, 2013 2:46pm
If you draw a trendline up from the low of July 11th, through the low of July 16th, ...price has just penetrated that line.
Admittedly 99.50 is a support, but that has also failed before, July 10th for instance.
Price could go either way from here.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,245
  • Jul 22, 2013 2:54pm Jul 22, 2013 2:54pm
No news for the day... so we will see clear sentiment of traders via price action.
  • #35,246
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:44pm Jul 22, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting Exodus
If you draw a trendline up from the low of July 11th, through the low of July 16th, ...price has just penetrated that line. Admittedly 99.50 is a support, but that has also failed before, July 10th for instance. Price could go either way from here.
yeah...price broke down from the wedge...I will give it some time and see if it can pop back above the line...if not...a shorting we will go

also...USD is weak across the board...seems like it will continue...any reason anyone can see USD getting stronger short term...do tell
  • #35,247
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:47pm Jul 22, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} In with a short at 99.55. Stop loss at 99.85. Looking for 99
Still holding this short since this morning. Looking for a strong Yen during the Asian session. I've moved my stop loss 10 pips closer to 99.75.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,248
  • Jul 22, 2013 6:16pm Jul 22, 2013 6:16pm
Waited 8 hours for a 5 min. drop. Out half of my position at 99.35. Other half moved to b/e.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,249
  • Jul 22, 2013 6:34pm Jul 22, 2013 6:34pm
99.30 solid support for several days. added some longs here.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #35,250
  • Jul 23, 2013 1:41am Jul 23, 2013 1:41am
Quoting livethedream
Waited 8 hours for a 5 min. drop. Out half of my position at 99.35. Other half moved to b/e. {image}
Closed the other half around 99.4

Went long at 99.43. Stop loss at 99.1.

Looking for a short term spike up to 99.8 to close half the position. Then gonna see how price reacts at 100.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,251
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:37am Jul 23, 2013 3:37am
Quoting bikov
99.30 solid support for several days. added some longs here.
Yar, my long entry @ 99.05 failed to engage overnight.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,252
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:16am Jul 23, 2013 4:16am
according to open interest (oanda, myfxbook etc) everybody is buying usd/jpy, it means that it would be more wise to sell on corrections) with stop loss, of course!
  • #35,253
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:17am Jul 23, 2013 4:17am
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Closed the other half around 99.4 Went long at 99.43. Stop loss at 99.1. Looking for a short term spike up to 99.8 to close half the position. Then gonna see how price reacts at 100. {image}

damn...you hit the nail on the head
  • #35,254
  • Jul 23, 2013 6:18am Jul 23, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} damn...you hit the nail on the head
If only I could do that every day...

I closed out my entire position around 99.8 since I was at work and wasn't able to babysit the trade.

I might be taking a small long at 99.86 as it looks like we've got a continuation pattern setting up, and I suspect the NY session might push us through 100. I'm not quite sure yet though.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,255
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:55am Jul 23, 2013 9:55am
I think now will touch 99,6 (that is 23,6 fib retracement from yesterday) and then go again up...touching 100 by the end of the day.

What do you think?
  • #35,256
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:24am Jul 23, 2013 10:24am
Long at the moment with trendline support on H4
  • #35,257
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:45am Jul 23, 2013 10:45am
I'm in short @ 100.045 will look to TP around 99.5 resistance
  • #35,258
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:43pm Jul 23, 2013 3:43pm
Trying again...... nite nite
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,259
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:46pm Jul 23, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting Exodus
Trying again...... nite nite
Trying another long? After we just fell straight back to support?

...I'll be looking for a short set-up.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #35,260
  • Jul 23, 2013 7:46pm Jul 23, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Trying another long? After we just fell straight back to support? ...I'll be looking for a short set-up.
Went short at 99.58. Looking for a drop down to 99.
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"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
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