Circular Trendlines

Great, thanks, sorry for the late reply, didnt see the post few hours back.

not sure if this is correct but i made it and it might happen

Hesitation around a trendline usually means that that particular trendline will be broken. Its only 1 day of hesitation that has past. If we have 2 or 3 days then your upward scenario is going to work. Right now because of the angle shift on the weekly chart, I am still short biased.

My current stance is that 3208 will not be broken, because of the 5 wave I mentioned before, and angle shift on the Daily chart.

Even if an upward scenario is going to take place we are still missing a C wave down on the hourly chart from the complex correction that has started from 3208. In my opinion this C wave has to take place before a upward move is going to happen.

Today we hit the 88.6 retracement of the move from 3208 to 3000 and we had a strong rejection off that level at 9 AM. if momentum slowly is building downwards, we should see lower lows pretty soon. if we don't see lower lows, then back to your scenario to see what happens

The missing C wave is show in the attached chart below:

gbpusd is going 1.5550 my chart say so..

Thats a lot of movement upwards.

Its hard to tell for me right now to say which way its heading, because its hitting on the south pole of a huge circle that has been successful in the past in rejecting motion downwards. If its gonna go that high, we are looking for a strong pole break that will travel at least 1/5 of the vertical diameter of the circle in a very quick surge, which is roughly very close to 1.5500.

I would say a false break of the south pole of the circle up to 5300 is possible, but if its a true false break, you will have quite a fast rejection going downwards.

You can have 5500 if we manage to hold on support on the inside of the south pole of the circle until 26 of July. If that is not possible, then Its a red flag on going long.

If you are right and we have 5500, then the EUR will also go up,

But

The situation with the EUR is very much getting like it was last year, where we were dying to see it go above 4500 and maintain it, but it went crashing very fast at end of august. It was stuck in a 500 pip range starting mid/end of July to end of august. I suspect that we will have some rangebound activity too like last year, but in a different way

I suspect that the situation with the EUR will be more sliding downward the T1 trendline with occasional breaks upwards, but no going as much up to hit the T2 line.

When it gets to 2800, then thats the time where the real war will start which I believe it will end in a strong sell downwards.

In my past experience the angle shift that I have shown, happens a lot in the initial stages of a movement which is strongly becoming a impulse move with a lot of momentum to be generated in the direction it intends to go (here downwards)

Hope it helps.

this chart tell the story and from my fibo levels on my other chart on my screen tell me to go long and will remain long ..18/7/2013 a a pin bar of a bullish continuation after rejection of 1.5153 of previous 2 days resistance..my opinion was to go long and remain long for the main time until i see a break below 5150..
i have long from 5120 and few from above it so it should be safe while i sit on my hand on friday..

Thanks for sharing, and best of luck on your trades. Would be interesting to see both of these pairs what they are going to do in the coming week.

GU IS BANKING ME PIPS....

EUR Update
Here is my comments on both currencies:

I am waiting to see how 3205 will get broken on the EUR/USD. If the last wave of whatever formation that is heading that direction slightly falls below 3205 even by 1 pip, then the size of the drop is going to be horrific. If not then I will wait to see how that level will be broken and catch it on a retracement for a buy.


Close to August 29 2011 thats what happened. The high of 4517 got broken by 20 pips only to revert back and the last wave of the formation ended below that level by around 2 or 3 pips as best I can remember, then the rebound downwards was very fast.


I just dont want to get caught in that situation. Right now its going up, and most probably will come very close to 3200 or break it. But its not my favorite setup to go long, just because of the bad memory that I had close to August 29th 2011, and the many resistance points around the 3180-3220 zone. Its not clear which one of these will trigger some reaction downwards.

I wont short it either at the current price.

However will start planting shorts as it gets closer to 3180-3190 level.

On the EUR/USD, I dont like the 5 waves that I have labelled in the EUR chart for a signal to go long, however I should say that at this point in time going long with small lots and tight stoploss for 15-20 pips should not pose a problem. Its just I think its a bit risky.

About the GBP/USD, it has broken inside the circle, but the movement lacks decisive momentum and the wedge shaped formation could go either way at the moment. its still risky in my opinion to go long, so collect whatever profit that its possible if you are long on this pair.

Formations where there is quite a bit of agitation as they move up or down as they get close to a resistance or support are not the greatest setups and they could breakout either way. So its best in these situations where new tops are being made to have lots in the direction of the weekly time frame, that way you dont loose money because the gravity of the weekly time frame will always save you in due time.

here is my daily analyze.

should short somewhere in yellow box

EUR Update

Here is my take, still risky to go long, but lets see what happens. Today is the super full moon, so there will be a nice reaction either way.

there was a slap on dollar since and i have posted this chart before...eu and gu still doing well....

You are on track so far

here is what i see ..short is risky now as we are getting into the 4th quater of the year so pro may or have position there swing trade but only time will tell.

No comments yet, I am just watching the 3205-(3215 / 3220) Zone for now

a break above 0.9200...is needed to confirm this journey...

EUR/USD Outlook

We should see a break downwards within the next 24 hours. We are within the Grey region of the blue circle and price action has showed a decrease in progress upwards as its spending more time in that region. This behaviour is further reinforced by price action obeying the perimeter of the black circle.

The agitation of a 45 pip range between 3170 and 3215 wont last a long time, and we should see a strong move downwards within the next 24 hours. 3050 is the most probable target, and in a extreme case we will go to 3000

The 3190-3205/3210 region still remains to be a sell zone.

i think so
i sell [email protected] let's watch

=http://charts.mql5.com/2/115/eurusd-...ents-inc-3.png][/url]

EUR/USD Outlook

This pair has been stuck in almost a 70-90 pip range for too long. The only times where this happens is around christmas times.

Even after 2 days of waiting for this pair to make a move, there has not been any substantial progress. From the low of 2900 we have a wedge shaped formation,

As long as the boundaries of this wedge are being respected and at the same time the boundaries of the circles are getting respected, we should be seeing a thrust that is heading down coming soon.

In a previous forecast there was a mention about an angle shift happening on the daily chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post6830803

A new view of the daily chart still showing an angle shift, but at a tighter angle than before. The way that this pair has been trying to break above 3250 shows that it hardly has the power to do so.

This goes hand in hand with avoidance to hit the 3310-3320 zone shown on the daily chart.

If price action did not want to turn impulsive, it should have easily been able to go to that level, but its hidden intentions are to become impulsive with a push downwards. This hidden intention is shown in how the trendlines are starting to show an angle shift on the daily chart.

Hence a short position is still desirable trade at the 3210-3230 zone.