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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,201
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:25am Jul 19, 2013 8:25am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Not the actual meaning no, I'm bad at such terms
He would've had a floating loss of $45,000 per contract.
  • #68,202
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:34am Jul 19, 2013 8:34am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} He would've had a floating loss of $45,000 per contract.
Right, I still don't get it.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #68,203
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:36am Jul 19, 2013 8:36am
Next Sunday elections in japan...
market opening to be careful with the yen ..
we'll see..
  • #68,204
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:45am Jul 19, 2013 8:45am
Quoting mpvlad
hi PT, as a long time observer of your comments and great fundamental analysis I would like to have your opinion regarding sunday election in Japan? which will be the effect upon market in general and especially on EUR/JPY? Mr. Abe"s victory will lead to a radical change in monetary policy of Japan from the moment he will be elected.. thanks ps: sorry for my english
Hi mpvlad. I think you already answered your own question.

If Abe is elected, then say goodbye to the Yen in the mid term and I will be looking for a 110 U/J
As for E/J, that all depends on Draghi, the German elections and the cabel in Brussels. However I would hazard a guess that it will rally also as the Yen will be used as a funding currency for European instruments..
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,205
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:49am Jul 19, 2013 8:49am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} I don't follow the ags closely at all but aren't most of them, except pork bellies, somewhat correlated to the USD and by proxy King Bennie, as well?
I have to disagree to a certain point. Whilst movements in the USD exchange rate will invariably have an effect on ags, it is more the economic prospects that are the driver of such instruments.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,206
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:53am Jul 19, 2013 8:53am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} When I was still a babe in trading in 1997, I worked beneath a manager who was holding usd/jpy shorts from 100-105. I didn't stick around long there but I always wondered how that ended up for him, lol.
If he was an extremely patient bear, he probably cashed out in 2011

Mind you he would have had a chance to get out with a small profit in 1998
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,207
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:28am Jul 19, 2013 9:28am
Hi mpvlad. I think you already answered your own question.

If Abe is elected, then say goodbye to the Yen in the mid term and I will be looking for a 110 U/J
As for E/J, that all depends on Draghi, the German elections and the cabel in Brussels. However I would hazard a guess that it will rally also as the Yen will be used as a funding currency for European instruments.

ok, something is missing in my reasoning...
I know, in his agenda, Mr. Abe has harsh tax reform, and agressive policies designed to bring Japan to the desired growth.
Will they not have the effect of a stronger Japanese currency?

thanks
  • #68,208
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:31am Jul 19, 2013 9:31am
Quoting mpvlad
Hi mpvlad. I think you already answered your own question. If Abe is elected, then say goodbye to the Yen in the mid term and I will be looking for a 110 U/J As for E/J, that all depends on Draghi, the German elections and the cabel in Brussels. However I would hazard a guess that it will rally also as the Yen will be used as a funding currency for European instruments. ok, something is missing in my reasoning... I know, in his agenda, Mr. Abe has harsh tax reform, and agressive policies designed to bring Japan to the desired growth. Will they not...
Only when Japan returns to real GDP growth and that is a long way away. You cannot fix in one year what took 20 years to break.

In the meantime, rates will be kept low, the BOJ's balance sheet will expand and forward guidance will say that they will continue to expand the balance sheet until they reach the 2% inflation target. During this time, Yen will devalue and investors and hedgers will use Yen to fund asset purchases in other currencies. (Most likely USD and EUR)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,209
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:37am Jul 19, 2013 9:37am
gbp/usd- 1.5250, 1.5260 & 1.5300 option expiries today (closest-to-market)
  • #68,210
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:38am Jul 19, 2013 9:38am
Quoting rekon67
gbp/usd- 1.5250, 1.5260 & 1.5300 option expiries today (closest-to-market)
1.5260
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,211
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:09am Jul 19, 2013 11:09am

Among those bracing for potential losses on Detroit debt are European banks. A number of the continent's lenders have been holding the city's debt, in the form of retiree pensions, since before the onset of the global financial crisis.

Industry officials estimate that European banks are holding roughly $1 billion of Detroit's unsecured debt—a significant slice of the total of $11 billion.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,212
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:29am Jul 19, 2013 11:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I have to disagree to a certain point. Whilst movements in the USD exchange rate will invariably have an effect on ags, it is more the economic prospects that are the driver of such instruments.
I'm next to a novice with ags. Any input is appreciated.
  • #68,213
  • Jul 19, 2013 12:38pm Jul 19, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} I'm next to a novice with ags. Any input is appreciated.
I'm no expert either. I couldn't trade them to save my life. However, I know how and why money flows between different markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,214
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:10pm Jul 19, 2013 1:10pm
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,215
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:05pm Jul 19, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{image}
I have never been to Detroit but I did a quick GOOGLE STREET VIEW journey.
Wow... it's worth to see it. It looks like some science fiction movie scene, a deserted city after world war 3 in 2050...
You can start your trip from 2705 Park Avenue, Detroit, Michigan.
Enjoy
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #68,216
  • Edited 3:50pm Jul 19, 2013 3:34pm | Edited 3:50pm
it can go either way..

4H chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Captura de ecra de 2013-07-19 21:31:29.png Size: 143 KB

Good weekend for all..
  • #68,217
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:47pm Jul 19, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting chess king
can go both ways... 4H chart..{image} Good weekend for all..
Surely you meant to say "it can go either way" LOL

Anyway, good catch. Well done.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,218
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:53pm Jul 19, 2013 3:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Surely you meant to say "it can go either way" LOL Anyway, good catch. Well done.

of course yes,,now fix..thank you..
  • #68,219
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:59pm Jul 19, 2013 3:59pm
damn, my broker is closed already USD/JPY screaming higher
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #68,220
  • Jul 19, 2013 4:03pm Jul 19, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Vtmn
damn, my broker is closed already USD/JPY screaming higher

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