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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,221
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:35pm Jul 19, 2013 2:35pm
i'm bored already, nothing to do this weekend
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  • #68,222
  • Jul 21, 2013 3:40am Jul 21, 2013 3:40am
Japan election: Abe set to win key upper house vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23371812

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  • #68,223
  • Jul 21, 2013 5:27am Jul 21, 2013 5:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Japan election: Abe set to win key upper house vote http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23371812
what effect does this have on JPY pairs?
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  • #68,224
  • Jul 21, 2013 5:32am Jul 21, 2013 5:32am
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} what effect does this have on JPY pairs?
Spike up
  • #68,225
  • Jul 21, 2013 5:37am Jul 21, 2013 5:37am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Spike up
It'd better be good, i have bunch of USD/JPY open
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  • #68,226
  • Jul 21, 2013 5:41am Jul 21, 2013 5:41am
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} It'd better be good, i have bunch of USD/JPY open
It will and remember to close some. It should retrace after hitting high.
  • #68,227
  • Jul 21, 2013 9:11am Jul 21, 2013 9:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Japan election: Abe set to win key upper house vote http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23371812 {image}
(Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition scored a decisive victory in an election on Sunday
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96J0BA20130721
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,228
  • Jul 21, 2013 9:35am Jul 21, 2013 9:35am
...and for those of you who enjoy reading fiction...

Chinese economy set to turn around, no hard landing: finance minister
(Reuters) - China's finance minister denied that the world's second-largest economy was entering a crisis period, adding that he believed growth could even accelerate, as quoted by the official Xinhua news service in an interview.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96K02J20130721
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,229
  • Jul 21, 2013 12:32pm Jul 21, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Possibly. I see AUD/NZD carving out a bottoming process quite soon because no matter how bearish the AUD is, there is no fundamental reasons for the Kiwi to be strong right now and after its technical pullback to current (and maybe slightly higher) levels, it should start it's extended decline whilst the Aussie performs its long overdue correction to 0.95/96 area or remains flat. If the Aussie stays persistent with it's bearish bias without retrace and beats the Kiwi to the bottom, it will not be long before the RBNZ has to make an emergency...

My heart goes out to all those who have been affected by the 6.5 magnitude earthquake in New Zealand.

Isn't it amazing how when the technicals scream for a currency to reverse, some event comes along to make it so?
Patience is key. I have always believed that in this market, it is patience that will bring you to success... as long as it is a good trade to begin with. I love my AUD/NZD long and even when it dropped below 1.17, I still hung in there because it made no sense to bail so quickly. I even said I might bail if I didn't see any progress by next week. Well here we are. This earthquake is going to put a dent in the economy and the underlying confidence of the markets. It's just too bad it had to be a natural disaster rather than cyclical macroeconomics that triggered the reversal.

Large 6.5 magnitude earthquake strikes New Zealand
http://www.smh.com.au/world/large-65...721-2qcal.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,230
  • Jul 21, 2013 1:14pm Jul 21, 2013 1:14pm
Not so sure that this earthquake will cause a reversal of trend. Seems that the damage is not too significant and I would assume NZD construction and employment numbers might be better in the coming months if there is significant damage.
  • #68,231
  • Jul 21, 2013 2:18pm Jul 21, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting Iwc
Not so sure that this earthquake will cause a reversal of trend. Seems that the damage is not too significant and I would assume NZD construction and employment numbers might be better in the coming months if there is significant damage.
Yes the domestic economy might have gained some advantage if there was intensive damage (which is not the case), but when an economy depends on exports and the market's confidence of a country to be able to deliver on such exports, that's a different matter. So as long as there is no disruption in the agricultural and energy sectors, things should be fine. Until that is determined, the market's caution could trigger a correction which is long overdue.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,232
  • Jul 21, 2013 2:20pm Jul 21, 2013 2:20pm
still holding 1 from 3015, looking for 3325.

i am admittedly concerned about perception of US stability. margin debt, munis and lagging earnings are getting a lot of attention. ES has no business at current levels. last week was basically a wash in grains after commissions/cme fees, unfortunately. gl this week
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  • #68,233
  • Jul 21, 2013 2:23pm Jul 21, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting redteamgo
still holding 1 from 3015, looking for 3325. i am admittedly concerned about perception of US stability. margin debt, munis and lagging earnings are getting a lot of attention. ES has no business at current levels. last week was basically a wash in grains after commissions/cme fees, unfortunately. gl this week
You may just get your 3325 (futures price). Best of like with it. I hope you make a killing.
Agreed ES has no business at these levels, but when you have a Fed hell bent on pumpanomics, this is the result.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,234
  • Jul 21, 2013 2:36pm Jul 21, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You may just get your 3325 (futures price). Best of like with it. I hope you make a killing. Agreed ES has no business at these levels, but when you have a Fed hell bent on pumpanomics, this is the result.
thanks, same to you in all sincerity. i have a nasty premonition about the coming weeks though, even holding over the weekend. once i'm out of euros, i am done w flat prices again for a while. i simply cant justify trading ES or dollar "risk" pairs. its not worth the lack of sleep.

i simply don't understand who actually believes in bidding indices up further -- the rare occasion where i'd rather be out than make money. i feel like ES and mini dows are going to crumble. hypothetically, even if you have a stop , the market will just blow right through your stop without filling unless its a stop market and then you risk an additional 50, 100 ticks of downside as all of the algos that claim to add liquidity simply pull all of their orders in the blink of an eye. could be wrong.. maybe dow will be up another 50% in a year from now.

ps, I dont tweet but i just followed you on twitter
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,235
  • Jul 21, 2013 3:00pm Jul 21, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting redteamgo
{quote}...ps, I dont tweet but i just followed you on twitter
Don't follow too closely. I have been known to brake for hallucinations

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,236
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:07pm Jul 21, 2013 6:07pm
hehe, market flushed out the weak yen shorts and now it seems it's ready to commence pricing in Abe's victory. I suppose there's a chance for a double flush out if market is feeling especially nasty but I'm not over leveraged, no worries so far.
  • #68,237
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:38pm Jul 21, 2013 6:38pm
disagree -- i did 1 contract of mini yen.. long 9990 (short 100.1001 spot). it looks like its at an inflection point.

i'm speculating as I have no idea wtf is going on in japan other than the re-election and occasional, absurd 5% nikkei 225 swings. purely a chart trade. im trusting that the market has priced in whatever it is supposed to be pricing in (lol). my opinion, which is largely worthless in terms of the market, is that Abe et al doesnt know what he's doing and thus re-election will work against the stated inflation goal.
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  • #68,238
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:53pm Jul 21, 2013 6:53pm
thats not bullish, but its not terribly bearish either.. YET. i see broken support, new lows last friday, retest of resistance tonight followed by a pretty decent decline. it might wedge into new highs... hard to say.
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  • #68,239
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:53pm Jul 21, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting redteamgo
disagree -- i did 1 contract of mini yen.. long 9990 (short 100.1001 spot). it looks like its at an inflection point. i'm speculating as I have no idea wtf is going on in japan other than the re-election and occasional, absurd 5% nikkei 225 swings. purely a chart trade. im trusting that the market has priced in whatever it is supposed to be pricing in (lol). my opinion, which is largely worthless in terms of the market, is that Abe et al doesnt know what he's doing and thus re-election will work against the stated inflation goal.
Welp, differing opinions is what makes a market.
  • #68,240
  • Jul 21, 2013 6:58pm Jul 21, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Welp, differing opinions is what makes a market.
aye. no idea what to expect overnight until NY so im stopped under fridays closing low.
Any prices quoted are futures
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