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Sonic R. System

  • #53,461
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:25am Jul 12, 2013 10:25am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Nice Find I am with you on this, though not so quick and well positioned as you. Have you noticed the Day range is practically sitting atop the RWH mark? This push up is a good opportunity for bears. {image} {image}

Was waiting for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD to go back up there. Though I didn't get the best entries, I really like these possys. Feel they have a long way to go down but could definitely be wrong.

AUD is very weak and trending strongly to downside. So it's a tough call overall.
  • #53,462
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:26am Jul 12, 2013 10:26am
Quoting traderathome
UCad Short Trade: Entered short #1, Scout, based on M1 PVSRA that shows MMs favoring the highs of each price swing, where they do more of their trading, indicating they are bears seeking tops of swings to add shorts. This is a small "boredom" trade on this last day of the week, and checking out some coding changes to the Trade Levels indy. {image}
UCad Short Trade: Added shorts #2 and #3, Scouts. Same PVSRA indications. Slow day, so this will go into next week it looks like.
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  • #53,463
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:33am Jul 12, 2013 10:33am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I decided that to keep the forum clear. I don't mind to publish my trades at all, but every day more guys are joining the thread and I don't want to saturate it, but I don't mind to share as you know. EURAUD I added a second scout after I see the pattern formed in 1H chart. I like that pattern a lot, that kind of evening star with higher volume in the 3rd candle of the pattern. I realized that maybe I'm a little bit late in my building position so I draw a fibo from the max to the min of the last candle of the pattern and I decide to enter...
Congratulations...good results in your trade explorer..
  • #53,464
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:33am Jul 12, 2013 10:33am
Hello Friends,

I wonder if my analysis PVSRA is correct in this case ...
Identified one support on the daily chart and a high volume at low ... then open a Long transaction.
I would like the opinion of the most experienced

NOTE: I put the pictures on the site ImageShack, because I could not upload them here .... Because I'm a new member in FF, appeared this error: "Error: Exceeds your quota by 74 KB"

thank you

http://imageshack.us/a/img690/663/7jfn.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img560/7122/esri.jpg
Sorry my bad English - My native language is Portuguese-BR
  • #53,465
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:42am Jul 12, 2013 10:42am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Which One? Aha! I was patiently waiting for you to ask. The answer is simple. It works! I guess that means it is better than all the others.
Thanks, you're really a great guy.
Newbie trader
  • #53,466
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:45am Jul 12, 2013 10:45am
Quoting forexbert
{quote} I see thanks. Personally i feel that there should be more dollar weakness yet to be come. eu and gu although are bears, but i like to see higher levels first. But like you say tah, we will never know when they run for profit. Hope for the best thanks.
I agree with you, especially when we have an "off hours" Friday ahead. Next early week we could also see EU, GU going higher and UJ going lower. However, US is recovering quite fast from the last Bernanke's show. But I agree with you. If you didn't start to build, I'd also wait for more attractive prices.

As an example, in EU, I started to build @1.3075, adding 2 more scouts later on. We are seeing a wedge in the daily chart, and that wedge have to break up or down at some point. The top of the wedge today is @1.3360, so price could be hiked still a lot. But that also means that we have room as well to add more scouts.

I guess your next question could be, "Why did you decide to break shorts and no longs? Do you think price will break down the wedge?" And my answer would be yes. I´m building short because I think EU are bears, I think EuroZone is about to enter in a new recession/crisis (with probably Spain, Portugal or Italy being rescued) and I think we can see the EU at least @1.25 in this year. It's a huge wedge and the break of that wedge will probably determine the second semester main trend.

Of course I can be wrong and it can break to the upside, but at this point we have to decide, and PVSRA is telling me EU is bears, fundamental situation is supporting this (or viceversa, dunno) and I decided to build short, assuming that price could be hiked around 200 pips more.

However, I am under the impression that this will take time, because in a couple of weeks we will be in August with less liquidity and then September with the German elections. Before that, I think we won't see the EU falling too much because Miss Merkel needs a strong EU to have good exports data before the elections.

Just my 2 cents

Best, Tymedu.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #53,467
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:47am Jul 12, 2013 10:47am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Is Volume Important? Since the origination of this thread, some different "indicators" (in quotes because they are less indicating and more misleading) have crept in, have been tried, and have been discarded. Of them all, "volume" (in quotes because it is not true volume, just the count of trades executed on your broker server) is the single indicator, in addition to the Trend Line, that has survived and become a lasting part of the Sonic R. System. Master Sonicdeejay himself has testified to the importance of "volume". Many...
I just passed by to check on the European close - a quiet day as I suggested earlier.

Re: "Volume"

I am in total agreement with TAH on this - if you look at my trades, the majority of my exits - banking profits - have a volume trigger
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,468
  • Jul 12, 2013 11:03am Jul 12, 2013 11:03am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} If EU, GU, etc. start to drop it will denote dollar strength, which will work against UJ dropping, even as other YEN pairs might start dropping again.
You are quite the analyst, tah. Well played.

We have nailed down a risk metric, which is great. On an initial 2k account, should we be trading highly correlated pairs? Not a gotcha question, I think you may have started out with one pair and progressed, but I want you to confirm or deny my ideations.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,469
  • Jul 12, 2013 11:06am Jul 12, 2013 11:06am
Quoting MichaelKiske
Hello Friends, I wonder if my analysis PVSRA is correct in this case ... Identified one support on the daily chart and a high volume at low ... then open a Long transaction. I would like the opinion of the most experienced NOTE: I put the pictures on the site ImageShack, because I could not upload them here .... Because I'm a new member in FF, appeared this error: "Error: Exceeds your quota by 74 KB" thank you http://imageshack.us/a/img690/663/7jfn.jpg http://imageshack.us/a/img560/7122/esri.jpg
If you are saving pics of charts using MT4 "Save As Picture" (Active chart [as-is]) with MQL5 box unchecked, then you should not be experiencing that difficulty uploading them to attach to your posts. As for the PVSAR on AJ, I suggest you should use M1 with M15, not the Day chart, to get a real-time indication. Also, now into off-hours of the market, especially on this Friday, you might do the PVSRA on M1 to see what the MMs do, now that it is easiest for them to put price where they want it, or keep it where they want it, for their position building.
  • #53,470
  • Jul 12, 2013 11:19am Jul 12, 2013 11:19am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You are quite the analyst, tah. Well played. We have nailed down a risk metric, which is great. On an initial 2k account, should we be trading highly correlated pairs? Not a gotcha question, I think you may have started out with one pair and progressed, but I want you to confirm or deny my ideations.
Joe,

I don't know the answer to that question other than to say EU is the primary pair, but there are times some other pair might be a mover when EU seemingly has the duldrums. It is more a matter of how many trade components to put to work. Where to put them is the trader's decision, too.
  • #53,471
  • Jul 12, 2013 11:46am Jul 12, 2013 11:46am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Is Volume Important? Since the origination of this thread, some different "indicators" (in quotes because they are less indicating and more misleading) have crept in, have been tried, and have been discarded. Of them all, "volume" (in quotes because it is not true volume, just the count of trades executed on your broker server) is the single indicator, in addition to the Trend Line, that has survived and become a lasting part of the Sonic R. System. Master Sonicdeejay himself has testified to the importance of "volume". Many traders,...
Hi Traderathome...........TraderinSD here,

Here is a brief opinion( to add to your comments )... an excerpt of an article below, of the use of volume for those who still may be questioning ( Many traders, maybe most, totally discount the use of "volume".) or are unfamiliar with the use of volume in Forex. I personally use volume in my Forex trading and know that it works for me.

3 points here, if I may:

1) The standard way of using volume in Forex is defined by volume activity vs. spread of the candle ( its high to low )
2) The type of candle e.g. An Up Thrust candle otherwise known as a PIN Bar/Candle as it relates to volume activity and where the candle appears in any price formation, in any method.
3) An important element that I have added is looking at volume within the "context of the current price action as it relates to the previous price action" on the pair that I am trading. Yes, this would seem obvious but actually it is not. The reason: Items #1 and #2 take center stage. As I trade a Supply Demand Method I use volume to define a level of activity within trend that has multiple levels appearing. This allows me to pick the correct level ( most of the time, it is not 100% ) when levels are stacked on one another normally seen in intermediate trends. As I trade multiple TF's from the 1M to the 4HR, it has allowed me to see the market and price in a clearer fashion.

A potion of the article

Is Forex volume reliable?

There is a common misconception that volume cannot be used reliably in Forex trading for two reasons: firstly, there is no central exchange and therefore no official volume data. Secondly, when you’re looking at volume data on your Forex platform, you’re actually seeing “tick volume”, and not actual volume traded, such as the volume with a stock chart.

“Tick volume” measures the number of times the price ticks up and down. This is an excellent indicator of the strength of activity in any given bar. But also, the correlation between tick volume and actual volume traded is incredibly high. In 2011, Caspar Marney, head of Marney Capital and ex-UBS and HSBC trader, conducted an analysis of actual volume and tick volume in Forex. He used data from eSignal, EBS and Hotspot. For the pairs he studied, he calculated the correlation between tick volume and actual volume is over 90%.

Note: He says "calculated the correlation between tick volume and actual volume is over 90%." We as traders must think in terms of Probabilities and not in terms of Absolutes. When we do this we see a high degree of opportunity using the 90% correlation statement.

You can read the entire article here: http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-arti...f-Trades/10825

Hope this helps
Good trading to all you Sonic Traders

TSD
  • #53,472
  • Edited 12:58pm Jul 12, 2013 11:48am | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Nice Find I am with you on this, though not so quick and well positioned as you. Have you noticed the Day range is practically sitting atop the RWH mark? This push up is a good opportunity for bears. {image} {image}
EA Short Trade:

Added short #2, Scout pending order was executed. M1 PVSRA shows that at the time the order executed the MMs were pushing up prices towards the 1/4 SR. They subsequently pushed up through the 1/4 SR on high activity, indicating they are bears pushing up prices to add shorts.

Edit: Added short #3, Scout pending order was executed. Same PVSRA story.
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  • #53,473
  • Jul 12, 2013 11:50am Jul 12, 2013 11:50am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Joe, I don't know the answer to that question other than to say EU is the primary pair, but there are times some other pair might be a mover when EU seemingly has the duldrums. It is more a matter of how many trade components to put to work. Where to put them is the trader's decision, too.

I am not asking about other traders, I am asking about you, sir.

You have intimated that a 2k account trading dimes gives a lot of room. Very well. Did you personally trade a single pair during this period? Or did you trade multiple pairs with a maximum position count in mind?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,474
  • Edited 12:25pm Jul 12, 2013 11:58am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} Hi Traderathome...........TraderinSD here, Here is a brief opinion( to add to your comments )... an excerpt of an article below, of the use of volume for those who still may be questioning ( Many traders, maybe most, totally discount the use of "volume".) or are unfamiliar with the use of volume in Forex. I personally use volume in my Forex trading and know that it works for me. 3 points here, if I may: 1) The standard way of using volume in Forex is defined by volume activity vs. spread of the candle ( its high to low ) 2) The type...
Nice post. Thank you.

BTW, forex volume counts the number of trades executed on the broker's server. It is more than a count of the times the price changes, or "tick" volume. As each tick is made, the actual volume data imported with it can be greater than "1", indicating the number of trades the broker executed since the last tick. I do not have any information if that means all the trades counted since the last tick are at the current tick price, or if it is a "catch all" that simply adds all trades subsequent to the last tick, some of which might still have been at the last tick price.

MT4 MQL4 Language uses the terminology "...contains tick volumes of each bar..." and the "tick volumes" part could mean volume of ticks or it could mean additional volume information contained within each new tick. Which is it? Hard coding a loop that examines the increments of "Volume[]" tick by tick proves that with each incoming tick the volume is sometimes incremented by more than "1", especially during high volatility. This leads to the conclusion that "tick volumes" refers to the the additional volume information that is imported with each new tick, as that additional volume is not restricted to "1".
  • #53,475
  • Edited 12:34pm Jul 12, 2013 12:13pm | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am not asking about other traders, I am asking about you, sir. You have intimated that a 2k account trading dimes gives a lot of room. Very well. Did you personally trade a single pair during this period? Or did you trade multiple pairs with a maximum position count in mind?
Joe,

I have to say this. You are asking a stupid question! Have I not said that account mirrors some of the PVSRA trades I've made? Yes, I have. Now, I post all my trades, EU and all others too. Do you see that I have made enough EU trades since Jan. 11, 2013 to get those results? I think you should do more reading and thinking, and less asking of questions.

Obviously, "No." to the first question. "No." to the second, too.

-tah
  • #53,476
  • Jul 12, 2013 12:31pm Jul 12, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting MichaelKiske
Hello Friends, I wonder if my analysis PVSRA is correct in this case ... Identified one support on the daily chart and a high volume at low ... then open a Long transaction. I would like the opinion of the most experienced NOTE: I put the pictures on the site ImageShack, because I could not upload them here .... Because I'm a new member in FF, appeared this error: "Error: Exceeds your quota by 74 KB" thank you http://imageshack.us/a/img690/663/7jfn.jpg http://imageshack.us/a/img560/7122/esri.jpg
Quoting traderathome
{quote} If you are saving pics of charts using MT4 "Save As Picture" (Active chart [as-is]) with MQL5 box unchecked, then you should not be experiencing that difficulty uploading them to attach to your posts. As for the PVSAR on AJ, I suggest you should use M1 with M15, not the Day chart, to get a real-time indication. Also, now into off-hours of the market, especially on this Friday, you might do the PVSRA on M1 to see what the MMs do, now that it is easiest for them to put price where they want it, or keep it where they want it, for their position...
PVSRA, AJ: Bulls or Bears?

PVSRA has spoken.....
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  • #53,477
  • Jul 12, 2013 12:38pm Jul 12, 2013 12:38pm
EU added 5th short, previous trades was following TAH. On m1 MM drove the price on the FOMC associated news through whole number and added they positions. I have done the same, planning to add up to 10 positions, due to money management reasons until I grow my account. Expecting TP around 1.275 as it is only reasonable support for shorts.
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There is no spoon....
  • #53,478
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:30pm Jul 12, 2013 1:30pm
ea price is above rdh went above rdh it is a nice entry point for short
we DONT know where price will go the next second so trust your indicator
  • #53,479
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:38pm Jul 12, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting cheataddict
ea price is above rdh went above rdh it is a nice entry point for short
No pic., no post! You know the rule! Furthermore, we have no idea what the F.... you are talking about! What pair? I wonder if even you know what you are talking about! Put more effort into posting. It your posts aren't worth competent composition on your part, they ain't worth anybody else reading them.
  • #53,480
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:52pm Jul 12, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} PVSRA, AJ: Bulls or Bears? PVSRA has spoken..... {image}
TAH thanks for your comment ... I'm a big fan of yours ...

Referring to AJ, this last volume below the 90.00 not indicate Bulls ??
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Sorry my bad English - My native language is Portuguese-BR
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