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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #68,001
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:48am Jul 10, 2013 11:48am
Quoting leafarct
{quote} god listen you....
Oh yes. I'm sure he's listening. He's just playing with my emotions
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,002
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:49am Jul 10, 2013 11:49am
What a mess.

Cable needs to give us an hourly pin. Would be a decent reversal bar.
  • #68,003
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:51am Jul 10, 2013 11:51am
Quoting BoringIsGood
What a mess. Cable needs to give us an hourly pin. Would be a decent reversal bar.
Looking very heavy to me right now, but I'm gonna wait until Benny has his say in just over an hour from now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,004
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:59am Jul 10, 2013 11:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
What a non-event that was (other than the spike and retreat. Had I still had my 1.2940 sell limit order in place it would have been triggered and I'd be in profit. Instead I decided to jump the gun and took a market order before the FOMC minutes were released at 1.2854. Anyway, it doesn't matter... it's all downhill for the Euro from here now. The really crappy part of this is that I had a sell limit order on the SPX500 at 1659.9, but the price only spiked up to 1658.4
Look at that piece of crap. So close, yet so far.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,005
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:08pm Jul 10, 2013 12:08pm
Quoting PipTrapper
What a non-event that was (other than the spike and retreat. Had I still had my 1.2940 sell limit order in place it would have been triggered and I'd be in profit. Instead I decided to jump the gun and took a market order before the FOMC minutes were released at 1.2854. Anyway, it doesn't matter... it's all downhill for the Euro from here now. The really crappy part of this is that I had a sell limit order on the SPX500 at 1659.9, but the price only spiked up to 1658.4
Look's like nobody's happy today... though the reasons are different.
I was long but closed my positions an hour before "the first tonight event".
As always price spiked to my initial targets :-))))
Think I'll wait until tomorrow with any new trades, the same up or down spikes may appear during Bernanke speech...
-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #68,006
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:15pm Jul 10, 2013 12:15pm
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #68,007
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:21pm Jul 10, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Look's like nobody's happy today... though the reasons are different. I was long but closed my positions an hour before "the first tonight event". As always price spiked to my initial targets :-)))) Think I'll wait until tomorrow with any new trades, the same up or down spikes may appear during Bernanke speech... -
I really hate it when that happens.
I guess the planets aren't lined up in our favour today

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,008
  • Jul 10, 2013 2:23pm Jul 10, 2013 2:23pm
Well that sucked. But on the bright side, these are great levels to add to euro and cable shorts.
  • #68,009
  • Jul 10, 2013 2:27pm Jul 10, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Well, wheeeeeee.... is ok, but we are nearly 600-700 pips down without any correction so far. Market is extremely oversold, so a small bounce, or at least a consolidation is what I'd like to see... before wheeeeeeeee Time will tell... {image}
Hi Halkins,
Is your gaming plan still valid or ? Still expecting wheeeee south right now ?

Thks for your kind input.
  • #68,010
  • Jul 10, 2013 2:31pm Jul 10, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
Well that sucked. But on the bright side, these are great levels to add to euro and cable shorts.
Damn straight. I just added another short on E/U and my SPX500 short order got triggered. Now I wait and smoke a stogie

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,011
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:35pm Jul 10, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hi Halkins, Is your gaming plan still valid or ? Still expecting wheeeee south right now ? Thks for your kind input.
Hey Delta...
Well, the DAILY candle says it all. "Strong, long and engulfing". This makes me think we are going to fly a bit higher.
I didn't expect we'd reach 1.3000 so quickly, over 200 pips in one day doesn't happen too often.
Look at weekly candle... 2 days left to close but the same story, looking bullish.
Therefore I am leaving my "wheeeee" on hold for the rest of the week, waiting to see what happens at strategic levels next week.
Until then I am staying bullish.

Here is my "first glance" of what may happen, but as always... TIME WILL TELL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 69 KB

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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #68,012
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:50pm Jul 10, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} only comment is to avoid using a stop altogether. they know where you are and they will find you
Do you mean my broker would re-route some dedicated "out-of-the-box" quotes specially to the specific attention of my poor little account ?? to trigger my stops? SL I mean ?

I agree multitude of orders visible in a book makes a nice pattern to target. I would be so happy to load a book to fake out a nice little pattern and then from another account silently counter strike from the background at the time enough real positions are heading up upon the pattern, which pattern of course would suddenly disappear from orders books by cancellation action just before the strike....

I like this scenario....and find it $ rewarding, so I assume that ones having this capacity wont be shy and would play it, but since I'm not a market mover, all I can do is only to beware from that possible reality by using worse case scenario...however the EUR/USD market is too huge and too deep for anyone, I believe, to be able to manipulate it that way no ? Stocks markets, okay, all you need is some algo, HFT, and then you can fake out floors...but in the EURUSD ? Saw your charts about GS algo faking out levels as well.

Loading up a book with orders and then cancel them suddenly may shake the curve, right ?
  • #68,013
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:52pm Jul 10, 2013 3:52pm
Well I guess when I said the US rally had to correct, I was right on the money, but I never figured it would erase most of its gains.
I'm underwater for the month now, but I'm not going to sweat it. Been here before and it won't be the last time either.

I'm packing it in for the night. See you all tomorrow.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,014
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:55pm Jul 10, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey Delta... Well, the DAILY candle says it all. "Strong, long and engulfing". This makes me think we are going to fly a bit higher. I didn't expect we'd reach 1.3000 so quickly, over 200 pips in one day doesn't happen too often. Look at weekly candle... 2 days left to close but the same story, looking bullish. Therefore I am leaving my "wheeeee" on hold for the rest of the week, waiting to see what happens at strategic levels next week. Until then I am staying bullish. Here is my "first glance" of what may happen, but as always......
UPDATE to 4H chart:
Hahah, On my chart I anticipated we can get into 1.3150-1.3160 zone within "a day or two" while in fact it took 30 minutes whatsoever !!!!
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #68,015
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:59pm Jul 10, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Well I guess when I said the US rally had to correct, I was right on the money, but I never figured it would erase most of its gains. I'm underwater for the month now, but I'm not going to sweat it. Been here before and it won't be the last time either. I'm packing it in for the night. See you all tomorrow. {image}
Hey... it's not the end of this month yet...
I was "underwater" yesterday, but regained my lose today.
If I only took the risk and have left my LONGs opened, I would be very very very happy.
But I didn't
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #68,016
  • Jul 10, 2013 4:04pm Jul 10, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey... it's not the end of this month yet... I was "underwater" yesterday, but regained my lose today. If I only took the risk and have left my LONGs opened, I would be very very very happy. But I didn't
HaHa. Yep. Those If...But statements used to haunt me. I have a new philosophy now for the last 3 years. Once a trade is closed, it's forgotten
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,017
  • Jul 10, 2013 4:11pm Jul 10, 2013 4:11pm
good night
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  • #68,018
  • Jul 10, 2013 4:15pm Jul 10, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey Delta... Well, the DAILY candle says it all. "Strong, long and engulfing". This makes me think we are going to fly a bit higher. I didn't expect we'd reach 1.3000 so quickly, over 200 pips in one day doesn't happen too often. Look at weekly candle... 2 days left to close but the same story, looking bullish. Therefore I am leaving my "wheeeee" on hold for the rest of the week, waiting to see what happens at strategic levels next week. Until then I am staying bullish. Here is my "first glance" of what may happen, but as always......
Hi Halkins,

Did you trade your initial plan? that one with a bounce from low to high before the wheee ? In that initial move plan, I see 401 pips in my D1 chart from low 1.27636 to current H 1.31648: 401 pips in 24 hours, that's a rally, more, a U turn. BB has definitely more power than Draghi chart moving game. Looking closer to my charts, 1.27636 seems to match with CNY less good Trade Balance release, only 0.7B less than expected. Less business, less USD demand, so USD weaked against EUR ? Looks like a doji on that release.
  • #68,019
  • Jul 10, 2013 4:20pm Jul 10, 2013 4:20pm
Bear market rallies are always the worst. Or in the fortunate ones case, the best.

That weekly bar that is shaping up on the euro is not pleasant for the bears, no doubt. But it'll actually take more than that to shake me out. I guess I'm a "true believer". LOL
  • #68,020
  • Jul 10, 2013 4:23pm Jul 10, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hi Halkins, Did you trade your initial plan? that one with a bounce from low to high before the wheee ? In that initial move plan, I see 401 pips in my D1 chart from low 1.27636 to current H 1.31648: 401 pips in 24 hours, that's a rally, more, a U turn. BB has definitely more power than Draghi chart moving game. Looking closer to my charts, 1.27636 seems to match with CNY less good Trade Balance release, only 0.7B less than expected. Less business, less USD demand, so USD weaked against EUR ? Looks like a doji on that release.
.
Hi Delta,
The weak China trade data (at least in exports anyway) would only help the USD and not weaken it.
The reason for the weakening of the USD is the market's perception that the Fed is not going to taper off QE in the near future. They base this perception on a comment taken out of context in an answer to a question he was asked at a conference. It actually worked out very well because the bullish trade on the USD was crowded and needed some relief. So now that we've got a nice correction, in a few days (possibly next week, or maybe even sooner), we should see the USD bulls re-emerge.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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