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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #67,981
  • Jul 9, 2013 12:41pm Jul 9, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm a little disappointed that we didn't get enough of a retrace to trigger my sell limits in the low 1.29xx zone, but I take comfort in the fact that the 1.2810 neckline has been broken, we have a daily candle engulf (actually we have a daily outside bar reversal signal) and that I am already sufficiently short from 1.3390, 1.3360 and 1.3195 Next target should be 1.2745 area and we will probably see a bounce from there to confirm this break via a retest of 1.2810. {image}
Hey PT... hi guys...
An important question to you, and all of us:
Do you think we can:
a) have some re-bounce at Target1 area,
b) have re-bounce at Target2
c) we can break through both Targets and fall even further
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  • #67,982
  • Jul 9, 2013 12:53pm Jul 9, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey PT... hi guys... An important question to you, and all of us: Do you think we can: a) have some re-bounce at Target1 area, b) have re-bounce at Target2 c) we can break through both Targets and fall even further {image}
Bounce at target 2 back up to target 1 and then Whee Whee Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,983
  • Jul 9, 2013 2:24pm Jul 9, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Reading the USD/JPY at this point is like reading tea leaves. However I do expect that a correction is due before more upside towards 110.xx The area I have identified for a possible pullback is between 97.5 and 98.0. Once we get there, I am ready and willing to start adding to my current long positions. Obviously there is no guarantee that we will actually correct and may just keep heading up from here, and that is why I do not recommend a sell. Only buy on dips under 98 or on a break and pullback of the highs. {image}
I am long from 94.73 that's about 622 pips in black,i hope I am brave enough to buy more when price reach 98 and below.yes ur right,no point going against the trend,better to wait for ur point and play small positions and play for the long pull and no stop loss.if one has patience market will gives u what u want and with less stress.by the way I took this trade on weekly and daily signal.very intutional trade and very satisfying.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #67,984
  • Jul 9, 2013 2:28pm Jul 9, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} I am long from 94.73 that's about 622 pips in black,i hope I am brave enough to buy more when price reach 98 and below.yes ur right,no point going against the trend,better to wait for ur point and play small positions and play for the long pull and no stop loss.if one has patience market will gives u what u want and with less stress.by the way I took this trade on weekly and daily signal.very intutional trade and very satisfying.
That's excellent Doc. Glad to hear you're riding the big waves too
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,985
  • Jul 9, 2013 2:51pm Jul 9, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Bounce at target 2 back up to target 1 and then Whee Whee Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Well, wheeeeeee.... is ok, but we are nearly 600-700 pips down without any correction so far.
Market is extremely oversold, so a small bounce, or at least a consolidation is what I'd like to see... before wheeeeeeeee
Time will tell...
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  • #67,986
  • Jul 9, 2013 3:48pm Jul 9, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Well, wheeeeeee.... is ok, but we are nearly 600-700 pips down without any correction so far. Market is extremely oversold, so a small bounce, or at least a consolidation is what I'd like to see... before wheeeeeeeee Time will tell... {image}
I've been waiting for this wave 3 for a while. And I could make a strong argument that this is a weekly wave 3 of a monthly 3rd wave.

The point being is that momentum indicators are basically worthless right about now. Overbought and oversold mean very little until market goes into a flat 4.

But, as with all things forex, nothing is certain.
  • #67,987
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:40pm Jul 9, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Well, wheeeeeee.... is ok, but we are nearly 600-700 pips down without any correction so far. Market is extremely oversold, so a small bounce, or at least a consolidation is what I'd like to see... before wheeeeeeeee Time will tell... {image}
Okay.. How about Whee followed by a small correction and then followed by the other whee and a big Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,988
  • Jul 9, 2013 4:40pm Jul 9, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} I've been waiting for this wave 3 for a while. And I could make a strong argument that this is a weekly wave 3 of a monthly 3rd wave. The point being is that momentum indicators are basically worthless right about now. Overbought and oversold mean very little until market goes into a flat 4. But, as with all things forex, nothing is certain.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,989
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:52pm Jul 9, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay.. How about Whee followed by a small correction and then followed by the other whee and a big Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee?
Hi everyone, so here I'am, this is the Wheeee Wheee Wheee thread ? Nice, well, glad to meet you all.

I was thinking about taking a small secured M30 to H1 action, Wheee Wheee wise:

SL: 1.2903TP 1.2720 Open : 1.2830
  • #67,990
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:54pm Jul 9, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hi everyone, so here I'am, this is the Wheeee Wheee Wheee thread ? Nice, well, glad to meet you all. I was thinking about taking a small secured M30 to H1 action, Wheee Wheee wise: SL: 1.2903TP 1.2720 Open : 1.2830
Secured ratio 60% income for 40% risk.

Do you see any issues on this set-up you may want to share ?

Thks
  • #67,991
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:00pm Jul 9, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Secured ratio 60% income for 40% risk. Do you see any issues on this set-up you may want to share ? Thks
Hi ya,

S/L looks good to me. Appears a worthwhile trade.
  • #67,992
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:24pm Jul 9, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Hi ya, S/L looks good to me. Appears a worthwhile trade.
Thks for your comment. Actually I'm a bit wondering about how far bb may make the line dance when he will start talking....Looks that he's trying to compete with what his challenger draghi is able to to...so...

Today I've been stepped out on an short audusd and was just about to get stopped on the same on nzd as well. Could fortunately pull off away the SL just a bit,... but when trying to do same on aussie, at the moment I touched the SL line to drag it up just a little bit, it just disappeared...Gosh!*** An I was aware of the correction, but well....

Fortunately could pips in a bit on the eur little whee whee to compensate. Still short with nzd, getting better, starting to smile a bit to me, and re-entered short again on the aussie. Problem is when you sleep and the deal just pass its way a few pips away of your trigger...I'm too greedy...
  • #67,993
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:25pm Jul 9, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Thks for your comment. Actually I'm a bit wondering about how far bb may make the line dance when he will start talking....Looks that he's trying to compete with what his challenger draghi is able to to...so... Today I've been stepped out on an short audusd and was just about to get stopped on the same on nzd as well. Could fortunately pull off away the SL just a bit,... but when trying to do same on aussie, at the moment I touched the SL line to drag it up just a little bit, it just disappeared...Gosh!*** An I was aware of the correction,...
But greed is good someone said...
  • #67,994
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:39pm Jul 9, 2013 8:39pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} But greed is good someone said...
not if you're trading.

TRADE not invest. big difference. carry on
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #67,995
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:56pm Jul 9, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Agreed that inflation is not an issue right now, but my point is that if it starts to become an issue, it will progress rapidly and can get out of control if the Fed is not careful. Remember there is over 3 trillion of accommodation out there.
and you're assuming the fed will continue to be transparent about their actions! they could already be tapering. does anyone have a real way to quantify their OMO?

fx and equities are really dangerous markets right now, especially with bonds driving. it looks like eurotrader might be finally able to unwind his shorts from 121 though to avoid taking a loss lols.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #67,996
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:57pm Jul 9, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hi everyone, so here I'am, this is the Wheeee Wheee Wheee thread ? Nice, well, glad to meet you all. I was thinking about taking a small secured M30 to H1 action, Wheee Wheee wise: SL: 1.2903TP 1.2720 Open : 1.2830
only comment is to avoid using a stop altogether. they know where you are and they will find you
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #67,997
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:22am Jul 10, 2013 12:22am
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Secured ratio 60% income for 40% risk. Do you see any issues on this set-up you may want to share ? Thks
1 :1.5 risk to reward is too low,it needs iron hard discipline and lot of hard work.i am too lazy I usually look for 1:10 and above.the trick is to wait,as one should never forget these markets are extremely leveraged and when the real move start it will wipe out everything in its way.
so we don't know when the real move start hence the best one can do is position in such a way that when the wave come ur already there.and never forget to be in the direction of trend on 4hr and above time frame.regards
happy ramadhan to all.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #67,998
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:03am Jul 10, 2013 6:03am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} 1 :1.5 risk to reward is too low,it needs iron hard discipline and lot of hard work.i am too lazy I usually look for 1:10 and above.the trick is to wait,as one should never forget these markets are extremely leveraged and when the real move start it will wipe out everything in its way. so we don't know when the real move start hence the best one can do is position in such a way that when the wave come ur already there.and never forget to be in the direction of trend on 4hr and above time frame.regards happy ramadhan to all.
i agree. find the right trade, wait PATIENTLY for the approach, and have a plan. know your limits, don't overextend, don't place a stop and trade NOT invest.

i just posted this in another thread but i always ask myself a two part question before any setup: "what do I think it will do? but what COULD it do?" the second peice will let you understand your exposure if you're wrong. there have been a few instances where failure to adhere to the second piece has costed me dearly.

(just yesterday in UX soybeans, it saved me at least $2k since i was trading, not investing. screen cap below. originally planned 8 lot entries @ 46, 454, 45, 444 thinking that we have reached major support ~44. scaled it back to 1,2,2,4. the second prong of question made me think... well, it COULD do 41, so i scaled back to only 9 total and hung on and cashed out overnight. proceeds to blow through anticipated support to 434. doesn't seem like a big move but grain spread are so thin, thats what makes them so dangerous yet so profitable: w original plan, 32 contracts x 5 ticks unexpected ticks x $12.5/tick instant loss at CME 8pm open. since support was pierced, its possible i would have panicked and taken some off for a loss, which would have been an error in hindsight. it only did 434 which is a capped $2k loss but what if it did do 41? suddenly we're talking another $4k loss. so yes, have a plan and make sure it includes a worst case scenario so you can actually sleep at night. next plan is a light bearspread from 48ish. new crop X is rallying very hard to due perceived supply and yield of the upcoming 2014 harvest. bullspreading right now is like playing with fire is still the favored trade since supply is so tight with old crop. note the progrssively lower highs against a flat bottom. sellers are gaining control. absent massive export numbers, a heat dome, or other constraints that force new crop (X) to decline relatively to the front month (U) , it is likely to fall off hard soon.)

another basic anecdotal example: w/ ES, i like to enter with often just a single contract. then after the first SAC/ GS algo fakeout tests the original entry level, i will pile in as many contracts as i am comfortable with then scale out on a per handle. one needs to understand the feel of the market you are trading as well as its algo nuances (which means removing your reliance on indies. they will only hold you back.). this takes screen time with that market.
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #67,999
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:43pm Jul 10, 2013 1:43pm
What a non-event that was (other than the spike and retreat.
Had I still had my 1.2940 sell limit order in place it would have been triggered and I'd be in profit.
Instead I decided to jump the gun and took a market order before the FOMC minutes were released at 1.2854.
Anyway, it doesn't matter... it's all downhill for the Euro from here now.

The really crappy part of this is that I had a sell limit order on the SPX500 at 1659.9, but the price only spiked up to 1658.4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,000
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:46pm Jul 10, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
What a non-event that was (other than the spike and retreat. Had I still had my 1.2940 sell limit order in place it would have been triggered and I'd be in profit. Instead I decided to jump the gun and took a market order before the FOMC minutes were released at 1.2854. Anyway, it doesn't matter... it's all downhill for the Euro from here now. The really crappy part of this is that I had a sell limit order on the SPX500 at 1659.9, but the price only spiked up to 1658.4

god listen you....
Let us be green
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