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EUR/CHF

  • #10,741
  • Jul 9, 2013 1:39pm Jul 9, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting Simon73
{quote} Yes it is not too big. If I am right it is 100 Lot. We do not know is there any leverage. But the trend is most important: more and more big guys buy this pair.
You have to remember that most of the volume is market making and there isn't as much naked positioning as some expect, now this is an addition to a trade, but certain desks (teams within bank) may have similar/opposite positions as well. Also, I highly doubt there was leverage as most MS FX trades are cash.

the profit on this trade will be ~700k USD so not that bad.
  • #10,742
  • Edited 2:25pm Jul 9, 2013 1:46pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting Adal
@JClinton, what do you think about the recent (last 3 months) EC correlation with USD/JPY? This can also be seen in CHF/JPY, which moves around 105. There seems to be a fundamental reason, but can't quite make it out. Danske also talked about this, and they were right so far: {quote} http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=ht...7665d996f0.pdf
Finally, a remarkable post

I don't remember if posted something of this correlation on this thread at past or not. It was impressive how the Swiss franc and Yen have been correlating well recently. One of the main reasons EC went that far in past few months was Yen weakness. However, that's not a principle, can change at anytime, maybe when 103 or 106 get removed.

Yen would win the Chf/Jpy battle I think. Actually, the currency that would beat the 103 or 106 first may win it.

I encourage good posts like this one
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,743
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:25am Jul 10, 2013 1:25am
Seems like a flag forming on H4 atm, anyone?
  • #10,744
  • Jul 10, 2013 3:42am Jul 10, 2013 3:42am
Quoting J.Clinton
Dismiss these posts ^^^^^ nonsense. Nothing changed, same read the rumors and stupid predictions Not a hedge fund, not a pu***, maybe my C*** bought EC from Sunday to find it on 1.246* high today How you guys fall in same repeated rumors!!! Had you ever hear or read anything of that rubbish before EC spike 70 pips? Never. It all pops out when market had already done its move. Everybody becomes a man and start predicting why? Why is on your chart, market gonna do that with or without a rumor or prediction. Am glad that ran away with a...

it's not done yet, lucky you are that your short is not filled and you had better delete that,
  • #10,745
  • Jul 10, 2013 7:42am Jul 10, 2013 7:42am
I found the discussion of this news item an interesting read.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=436738


PK
  • #10,746
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:45pm Jul 10, 2013 12:45pm
Can anybody explain what the effect of US bond auction is on CHF?
  • #10,747
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:07am Jul 12, 2013 2:07am
A little technical analisys:

In h4 EC formed a H&S formation with 1,2365 neckline. It was a very strong resistance, but finally could broke it. The first target was 1,2455. After we get the first target, we tested the neckline. At first time it could serve as a support. We need to go above 1,2465 to get next target level.

In the last days we was in Buy in dip mode: the market bought all dips, and all bad news (Italy downgrade, Draghi, Bernanke words, Portugal, egypt etc.)

key levels: 1.2365 and 1,2465
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  • #10,748
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:20am Jul 15, 2013 8:20am
What fundamentals we have for such a good up trend; the US economy is working ok, but we still have the unemployment high; and the summer will not solve this issue, in Europe we don’t have a solution on a lot of problems. So basically, EURO has not such good fundamentals for an appreciation, and the dollar has not for further appreciation.
The Swiss economy is doing well, but no so.
I do believe that if we will not break the 1.24-1.2450 this week, we have space for down trend to 1.2280-1218.

What do you say, what do you think?

Thank you!
  • #10,749
  • Jul 15, 2013 10:36am Jul 15, 2013 10:36am
I try to trade the range antagonistic.

EURCHF 2.248 - 1.2250 (Post# 10,750)
actual 1.2393

USDCHF 0.97-0.9210 (Post# 10,751)
actual 0.9503

It's absolutely equal for me if by executing some trades just now e.g. EC Long @ 1.2393 & UC Short @ 0.9503 et vice versa.
FXcube
  • #10,750
  • Jul 15, 2013 10:39am Jul 15, 2013 10:39am
EURCHF, Weekly, 2013 July 15
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  • #10,751
  • Jul 15, 2013 10:40am Jul 15, 2013 10:40am
USDCHF, Weekly, 2013 July 15
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  • #10,752
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:00am Jul 17, 2013 3:00am
looking forward to a surprise from jordan the snb.
  • #10,753
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:13am Jul 17, 2013 3:13am
Quoting holmes
looking forward to a surprise from jordan the snb.
After Jordan hard words in May (rising floor and negativ rates), he said a more preciz answer at the SNB meeting:

- there was a question on the press conf, what SNB do IF ECB implement negativ rates. THEN Jordan said, SNB has a lot of tool (rising floor and negativ rates)

So I think we could see any surprise from Jordan, IF ECB do something surprise
  • #10,754
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:45am Jul 17, 2013 4:45am
Quoting Simon73
{quote}
So I think we could see any surprise from Jordan, IF ECB do something surprise
I agree, but I think that the SNB would first wait and evaluate the consequences of any ECB surprise action for EUR/CHF. If it results in renewed pressure on the 1.20 cap, requiring the SNB to intervene on a constant basis, then we are likely to see SNB reaction after 2 - 3 weeks or so (probably negative interest rates rather than higher floor, because higher floor will lower the price of CHF and, thus, increase the pressure on the new floor, while negative rates will make it less attractive to buy CHF in the first place). However, my guess is that the SNB will not have to intervene even in case of ECB surprise action, simply because the market would be expecting SNB reaction and, therefore, would be very careful to move too close to the floor. So most probably ECB surprise action would simple result in a short knee-jerk dip, which should be used as a buying opportunity before gradual normalization at current or slightly lower levels. In case of lower or negative ECB rates I do not expect great shifts of capital from EUR to CHF because no one wants to exchange negative-yield for no-yield likely turn into negative-yield. Rather, I expect moves towards other, higher yielding currencies and commodities. But these are just my 2 cents. Thoughts?
  • #10,755
  • Jul 17, 2013 4:59am Jul 17, 2013 4:59am
meanwhile lets see if the 50% fibo (1,2217 - 1,2465) holds
  • #10,756
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:04am Jul 18, 2013 6:04am
Quoting pipxster
meanwhile lets see if the 50% fibo (1,2217 - 1,2465) holds
update: very small long @234 for the fibo that is now @BE. just for fun
  • #10,757
  • Jul 18, 2013 6:24am Jul 18, 2013 6:24am
closed 1 long from 1.2335 at 1.2370... still another trading position long at 1.2365... looking to add the other one again in 1.2340 region... sl 1.1998
  • #10,758
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:08am Jul 23, 2013 5:08am
Hello-o! Anyone out there? All on vacation?
What are our next milestones and risk events over the summer? I guess ECB-rate decisions and FOMC-meetings are the obvious ones. And then September could become pretty wild, with lots of expectations as to tapering, rate decisions SNB/ECB, and German elections. Anything else to look out for? Technical advice to follow through the rest of July and August?
  • #10,759
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:55am Jul 23, 2013 5:55am
Yawn,.... pretty boring these days. Good for scalping only, or scalp long to be safe.

Any idea why SNB's weekly sight deposits keep on increasing so much?
  • #10,760
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:30am Jul 24, 2013 10:30am
Quoting alaneth
Yawn,.... pretty boring these days. Good for scalping only, or scalp long to be safe. Any idea why SNB's weekly sight deposits keep on increasing so much?
Post Finance got a bank licence and is now considered domestic instead of other deposits. The total sight deposits did not move since Sept. 2012, still 370 billion.
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