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EUR/CHF

  • #10,701
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:32am Jul 4, 2013 12:32am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Unless like Simon73 said they are getting worried about the amount of reserves they are holding and want the franc a lot weaker so they can offload a lot they bought at 1.20
I think there is a critical level, where the money would like to come back to eur from chf, because of the loss.

I don't know what is this level. If somebody bought chf last year at 1,2, they will loss about 12% at 1,3000. So if they do not want to lose more, they have to change it to eur, or Usd.

The SNB need to push the price to this level, and keep it there for a while, and money will flow to eur or usd on panic mode.

SNB must have information about this levels

Last year 200 Billion CHF was bought about at 1,2-1,2050 This is a huge money

A big stop hunting for short covering
  • #10,702
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:53am Jul 4, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} I think there is a critical level, where the money would like to come back to eur from chf, because of the loss. I don't know what is this level. If somebody bought chf last year at 1,2, they will loss about 12% at 1,3000. So if they do not want to lose more, they have to change it to eur, or Usd. The SNB need to push the price to this level, and keep it there for a while, and money will flow to eur or usd on panic mode. SNB must have information about this levels Last year 200 Billion CHF was bought about at 1,2-1,2050 This is a huge money...

That said I still don't think they will do anything
  • #10,703
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:15am Jul 4, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Bluedolphin
{quote} I agree with brinks. The Swiss are very pragmatic and conservative. They won't change a policy that works and take adventurous risks just for the sake of accelerating CHF devaluation when they are not hard pressed to do so. Look at how they are dealing with the banking secrecy. Nothing goes unless you put a gun to their heads - and even then they may stay stubborn. And Jordan is veeeeeery Swiss. And his policy works. Nothing will happen unless 1.20 is genuinely threatened or until CHF remains above 1.30 for several months with the EZ and...
As a Swiss, following EURCHF now for years, I totally agree with this statement. There is no reason, absolutely no reason for a move... even I'd appreciate it... We'll have to wait for positive news out of EURO-zone and the devaluation of EURCHF will start on itself...
  • #10,704
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:21am Jul 4, 2013 2:21am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} I think there is a critical level, where the money would like to come back to eur from chf, because of the loss. I don't know what is this level. If somebody bought chf last year at 1,2, they will loss about 12% at 1,3000. So if they do not want to lose more, they have to change it to eur, or Usd. The SNB need to push the price to this level, and keep it there for a while, and money will flow to eur or usd on panic mode. SNB must have information about this levels Last year 200 Billion CHF was bought about at 1,2-1,2050 This is a huge money...
Maybe those who shorted at 1.20 will keep on shorting at 1.30.... just double the amount... This would be quite uncomfortable for SNB, buying at higher level with PPP next to them and the trade-balance-surplus as a political argument to question the measure.

In my opinion we need fundamental changes to the better in EZ, otherwise EURCHF has no justification to go up... even PPP is converging.

Keep on holding my longs
  • #10,705
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:23am Jul 4, 2013 2:23am
Quoting Swissie
{quote} As a Swiss, following EURCHF now for years, I totally agree with this statement. There is no reason, absolutely no reason for a move... even I'd appreciate it... We'll have to wait for positive news out of EURO-zone and the devaluation of EURCHF will start on itself...
That could be a long time though swissie.

I think maybe now we are seeing it start to base.
A while back with news like yesterday (portugal,cyprus,greece and egypt) the eur/chf would of tanked but it held up well.
Maybe im just clutching at straws we will see.
  • #10,706
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:54am Jul 4, 2013 2:54am
Quoting brinks
{quote} That could be a long time though swissie. I think maybe now we are seeing it start to base. A while back with news like yesterday (portugal,cyprus,greece and egypt) the eur/chf would of tanked but it held up well. Maybe im just clutching at straws we will see.
Possible that it could take some time... But with first signs of recovery in EZ-Economy, it could go fast... Short covering, Interst rate hopes for EUR, ongoing recession could come to an end at some time, etc... a lot of ingredients for a sharper rise in EURCHF are here... Does anybody see a reason why we are not at 1.20 anymore? I mean we should be, but maybe market participants start to think about a less worse future for EZ?

I'm more certain than ever, that there will be a short squeeze at some time, but not startet by a monetary action of SNB.
  • #10,707
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:58am Jul 4, 2013 2:58am
Quoting Swissie
{quote} Possible that it could take some time... But with first signs of recovery in EZ-Economy, it could go fast... Short covering, Interst rate hopes for EUR, ongoing recession could come to an end at some time, etc... a lot of ingredients for a sharper rise in EURCHF are here... Does anybody see a reason why we are not at 1.20 anymore? I mean we should be, but maybe market participants start to think about a less worse future for EZ? I'm more certain than ever, that there will be a short squeeze at some time, but not startet by a monetary action...
I agree with you completely thanks
Nice to have someone close to the action giving there perspective
  • #10,708
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:17am Jul 4, 2013 3:17am
I agree too:

- the move will be hard, and fast
- the move is getting closer (q3 or q4 i think)

The only question is: SNB will help to start this short covering, or they will wait and see only.

I don't know, but i don't rule out any surprise action in this months. SNB has a lot of tools, not only higher the peg, and negatív rates.
  • #10,709
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:15am Jul 4, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Simon73
I agree too: - the move will be hard, and fast - the move is getting closer (q3 or q4 i think) The only question is: SNB will help to start this short covering, or they will wait and see only. I don't know, but i don't rule out any surprise action in this months. SNB has a lot of tools, not only higher the peg, and negatív rates.

Like Swissie, I do not expect the SNB to act to trigger any move. They may slightly adapt their public statements and use moderate and careful verbal intervention (as we have seen, Jordan seems to have become more open to influencing market expectations by being more outspoke about "not excluding" any tool available to them to maintain appropriate monetary conditions). However, Swiss politics and policy (including monetary policy) have always been reactive, never proactive, but once they do something they stick with it until they are forced to do otherwise or until it becomes hugely more beneficial to change course. But they virtually never decide and act ahead of the game. So by the time they change course, it will be bloody obvious to anyone half awake on the planet, let alone a bunch of retail traders checking for game changer news 24/7. The advantage is reliability and predictability, the disadvantage is that it requires patience until macro-conditions turn into the right direction. But if you got your margin calculation right and don't need your money anytime soon, you can sleep tight and look forward to your profits!
  • #10,710
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:35am Jul 4, 2013 5:35am
Quoting Bluedolphin
{quote} Like Swissie, I do not expect the SNB to act to trigger any move. They may slightly adapt their public statements and use moderate and careful verbal intervention (as we have seen, Jordan seems to have become more open to influencing market expectations by being more outspoke about "not excluding" any tool available to them to maintain appropriate monetary conditions). However, Swiss politics and policy (including monetary policy) have always been reactive, never proactive, but once they do something they stick with it until they are forced...

When i say a lot of tool, i mean some not normal tool. Verbal is one of this tool, but this has not too much effect.

I attach one chart from 2010. There was a big level 1,5000 which was defended by the SNB in 2009. At the end of 2009 SNB gave up this level. The price went to 1,4 in very short time. This was the first Greece trouble, so all the swiss banks changed their EUR accounts to CHF. In May of 2010 Hildebrand sit down with the largest swiss banks to stop their CHF buying just for 4 days. The result was 700 pip uptrend (in the circle in the picture). Of course after this limitation the price collapsed. But this is a good example how other things SNB could do to push up the price for some levels. For example all big swiss banks introduce negativ rate for foreign CHF account in the same time etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchfbanks.png Size: 92 KB
  • #10,711
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:05am Jul 4, 2013 6:05am
Quoting Bluedolphin
... if you got your margin calculation right and don't need your money anytime soon, you can sleep tight and look forward to your profits!
zzzzzzzzzzz

|-)

Actually, though, to complete the risk analysis, you also need to be comfortable that your broker isn't going to go up in smoke in the meantime.
  • #10,712
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:27am Jul 4, 2013 7:27am
If it doesnt fall after Draghi then its got to go up
  • #10,713
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:36am Jul 4, 2013 8:36am
Quoting brinks
If it doesnt fall after Draghi then its got to go up
It doesnot fall yet.

Very nice reversal in 1,2300.

It seems this is in a big accumulation phase.

It points to 1,2380 today
  • #10,714
  • Edited 10:50am Jul 4, 2013 8:40am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} It doesnot fall yet. Very nice reversal in 1,2300. It seems this is in a big accumulation phase. It points to 1,2380 today

See if it can close above 1.23630

big battle going on.

Couldnt even break it let alone close above it.
  • #10,715
  • Edited 11:23am Jul 4, 2013 11:01am | Edited 11:23am
Seems like somethings cooking here...hopefully not just wishful thinking let us see a monthly HH
Beautiful H4 candle though...
  • #10,716
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:14pm Jul 4, 2013 2:14pm
Another fail at the 1.23630 level
  • #10,717
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:42pm Jul 4, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting brinks
Another fail at the 1.23630 level
Yesterday was not important. New York was closed.

Today is a key day. Today there will be Swiss and US important data:

Swiss CPI which is expected minus again . So SNB have to do more for 2% inflation target

USA NFP. Good number may help to go up.

So if we could close above 1,2364 today, then it is a weekly bullish sign too

If not, we could test again 1,22
  • #10,718
  • Edited Jul 5, 2013 8:35am Jul 4, 2013 11:47pm | Edited Jul 5, 2013 8:35am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} Yesterday was not important. New York was closed. Today is a key day. Today there will be Swiss and US important data: Swiss CPI which is expected minus again . So SNB have to do more for 2% inflation target USA NFP. Good number may help to go up. So if we could close above 1,2364 today, then it is a weekly bullish sign too If not, we could test again 1,22
Yes agreed

CPI better than expected see what NFP brings.

Test of 1.22 again then.

I wonder if the SNB are offloading some reserves at this 1.23630 level.
  • #10,719
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:44pm Jul 5, 2013 2:44pm
^^^^^LMAO^^^^^

Tell me how dudes do not want me to laugh till next year at the dozens of useless posts above?

Same read the rumors and some weird guys predictions. How much must I thank you for ROFL all day after now seeing your links!
When will you depend on yourselves. The funniest fellow who says "do not trade according to someone's levels"(maybe according to the rumors you read!)
Yeah, you are right, not according to anyone's levels but on the right proven record person technical analysis

How much times from when EC was moving near the 1.20 you read and listened to that nonsense rumors and weird writers predicting SNB intervention if not yesterday must be today, the last was on Independence day
The fault not on them but on who believe and read stupidity! History teaches but you don't learn, same mistakes repeated, again, again and again. Aren't you embarrassed yet?

What are your whole posts up good for??? Nothing! Really, Nothing at all.

It might appear somehow offensive for some but most of you are not Traders, at least not Real Traders.

One that say "just long it" time would show profits!! The other have a long on 1.23 a year ago, waiting for 1.30
The more other do not exit before 1,25! Funny people

I have no time for all that nonsense. Posted last Sunday my analysis and walked, kept for you the chit chat and dreams

Go back to my levels, 1.2285-90 1.2270 and 1.2220 for support, resistance on 1.2310 1.2350-60 and max. 1.2385-90

What had the market done? First got support on 1.2285-90 went from there up to 1.2380. Next drop from that top to 1.2275(my support 1.2270) got support there and up to today's 1.2377.

Why you are not traders, rather gamblers? Because a trader do not hope for 1.25 and 1.30 and price spikes from interventions, rumors and news but from technical analysis.

What trader hold on a position when price goes 90 pips in profits to see it back to entry point without exiting on any profit??
Do not come out with something like "Long Term Trade", you mean more than 3 years for 500 pip profit

Or every trader has different strategy! What strategy is that loosing 100pip only to dream for more that never comes until maybe 1K times of ups and downs pips before up up!

Shortly, A real trader is who must had longed 1.2285-90 exited 1.238 or any 1.237*, shorted there to 1.2285-90, bought there or on 1.227* to 1.237* again and shorted once again.

Instead of stubbornly holding a long on 1.23, exit that damn position on 1.238 and long back on same 1.23 if you don't want to short on top.

You may mock: "easy to say that after market moved like that"

I tell you, wrote that from Sunday, go back read my analysis, nothing was out of equation, market just approved it.

In that time, 5 days people 5 days market price moving, all of you were whining for price to stay up 1.236 or break up to 1.25-1.26-1.30!!, searching for help from stupid predictors who like to dream instead of looking at their charts.

What I tell you would be, only that would be, nothing else. Full Stop

Better for all not to offensively reply because you are the only losers from that action.
My posts are on this thread(only once/week), people can compare

Who do not want to trade according to current market condition but what dreaming it to be, is not a trader but a GAMBLER!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,720
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:26pm Jul 5, 2013 3:26pm
Ok Clinton,i just made my register now and i want to say a big thanks and i love you for all you wrote here
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