Circular Trendlines

EUR/USD Outlook

I was off by a 100 pips for the turn around, but the upward furious thrust was what I was expecting yesterday, it is happening today and the target remains the same, around the mid 3100, 3145-3165 region. The black circle was the one that caught the false break of the red circle and pushed it up.

EUR/USD Outlook

EUR is starting to reverse after its 600 pip drop from 3400. The break off the smaller circle and the fact that 5 waves are done as shown will slowly introduce more upward movement breaking previous resistances.

Its time to buy

EUR Update

Congrats to anybody who went long today.

The size of the thrust was more than what I expected, but its furiosity was what I was expecting.

Cant tell right now which way its gonna go until some more time elapses, but if you have missed this move, then its best to stay out for a while because moves like these retrace in unpredictable ways too.

For now we have hit the 61.8 fib retracement of the move, and we have to see whether 3000 will become a support base or not. Thats the important question which basically determines which way we will be heading in the days to come.
The vicinity of the New Moon ususally signifies a important move to be made. About 80% of the time its a sell, but not necessairly a continuation of the same trend.

New moon was July 8th, and a dip was made shortly after at July 9th from the 2900 level. Soon the trend changed with a 400 pip rise within 24 hours. This trend change is here for some time to stay. Its not gonna go away.
The most probable good opportunity wont come until 3-4 days from now, when the first quarter of the moon is about to happen.


Right now its best to just let price action stabalize for a while before going for a trade.

EUR/USD Outlook

Right now is a real tricky time to go either short or long. Cant over emphasize this. The explanation below will help to shed some more light on the situation.


Weekly Time Frame

We are at the Grey region of the blue circle. This means more uncertainty. From the looks of the square region shown on the lower time frames we could be in the middle of a triangle. This triangle has not completed and there are legs C, D, and E waiting to be completed.

If this theory is correct, which at this point of time is too early to say, then we have a huge upward thrust that can go as high as 4700/4800 on the red circle.

Now the other thing that is happening right now is that the agitation in the square region of the chart shown is very reminicent of situations where the perimeter of a circle gets broken and the upward limitation of a movement has been reached, the only difference here is that we have nested circles for support, but price obeying the resistance regions of the blue circle.

Now on top of that we have another important phenomenon that looks like its taking shape and that is the "Barrel Roll" phenomenon, where the third barrel, which is yet to come is going to be followed by a "HUGE SPIKE DOWNWARDS".

This is a very scary situation, but for the next 7-10 days it wont happen as easily as described above, since the market needs some time to stabalize itself and decide on a direction. This is more of a longer term outlook, but a very important piece of the puzzle to keep in mind.

In the next few weeks, the more that we stay within the 3200 to 3000 zone, the higher will be the possibility of a huge spike down. The sooner that we get to 3400 and maintain a region between 3150 and 3400, the higher will be the probability of a rise towards 4700.


The size of the downward spike, if it happens is quite heavy and will clear all the lows made since 2008 in a very very short time.


That is why I am giving early warning signs of staying out for few days to see what happens.

very good bro

i always looking at your thoughts

EUR/USD Outlook

The situation is not yet very favorable for a buy, couple more days of waiting is needed to have price action back in the lows of 2900 (2915-2930) for a buy opportunity. The 3 sectional move is missing wave B and C at the moment.

From the slow and gradual dip that we have been witnessing since last week, it does not look like that there is sufficient potential energy for price action to make another series of highs before going lower.

The presence of converging trendlines adds more ambiguity to the situation, so for the sake of safety its not recommended that a buy or sell should be made at the moment.

hi mate..nice analysis as always..volume suggest that they are buying euro because every test of 1.3000 as been low and hit buy demand...we should see upward movement as long as the demand at 1.3000 still strong ..

I made this...

if you are buying just hold it..32 is key level on my chart....

EUR/USD Outlook

As time is passing by and resistances are being challenged, more and more certain structures present their authenticity. There was a drop from July 10 to July 11 as marked by the rectangular region shown in the chart below that is worthy of attention.

This is a five wave unfolding impulse pattern. These patterns and the behaviour that has complemented them with resistance at 61.8 fib level are indicative of a change in direction. This change would be towards the south and not north.


Currently we are stuck at the 61.8 fib level of the drop from 3205 to 3005. It is highly recommended that you do not go on a buy after the 61.8 fib level shown, until price action has supassed the 88.6 retracement level. Anywhere in between the 61.8 fib level and 88.6 fib level try very small lots for a sell.


This is a very uncertain market, but just because there has been a 5 wave unfolding pattern, which designates a change in direction and a number of days where the high of 3200 has not been breached, going on a sell is safer than a buy.

Today is the deciding factor....

Very nice :-)

How are you, Kambooj? Hope all is well....

here is my opinion on your chart:

EUR Update

Here is additional updates on the situation, giving the possibility of a odd spike to 3160 zone, but that is as far as I can see this thing going up at the moment

EUR Update
Here is additional Updates

daily tl approaching we need daily closing price to confirm next direction.

please i need ur opinion i am not an ew trader but could this be possible..??/

yes it could as I mentioned before, but you need to have sustenance at the 3150 level to have that situation. Also there is a Elliot Wave phenomenon known as the "5th wave failure", which basically states that if the 5th wave of a impulse pattern does not make it to at least the top of wave 3, then there is a high probability that it will fail and will retrace the entire impulse wave of the larger degree. Current situation is barely trying to hold above 3150, and I highly suspect that we are gonna get a turnaround. Given the daily chart in my next post forecast, it is highly unlikely that at the current moment it will do what you are mentioning. This is just purely based on behavior and trendline respecting of price action

EUR Update
Here is additional information taking into consideration the daily chart: