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  • #52,201
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:14am Jul 1, 2013 4:14am
Quoting ramin1234
{quote} thank you for answer me . I ask another question where is whole number , half number and...? please show me in chart ?
Be careful, that sort of question can get you kicked off the thread! Stop asking questions and go do all the reading you should have already done, where I have already answered this question. I know you said english is not your prime language, and that therefore the reading is tedious. Nevertheless, you must do it, or find someone to translate it for you. Otherwise, too many questions which are already answered.

Obviously, you are not even keeping up with reading back posts you missed since last being on the thread. This is not excusable.
  • #52,202
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:22am Jul 1, 2013 4:22am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU would have to drop below previous lows, below the lower whole number. If that happened I would still wait a bit to see if higher volumes came in. If PVSRA shows the MMs didn't take the price back down to reload longs, didn't show redeeming volume, then I would close the trade.

That was an honest answer. You have discretionary stops. TAH, you are a good man, even if I disagree with how you trade. I think we can make this thread even stronger than it has been, if that is possible.

Sonicdeejay, thanks for the platform!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #52,203
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:26am Jul 1, 2013 4:26am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU Long Trade: Added long #2, Scout re-entry. M1 PVSRA shows MMs stopped the rise (too expensive for longs), lowered the price and eventually traded more heavily again, indicating they are bulls. {image}
Hi Prof Tah,

Just a quick clarification as I'm still learning

From the 1M chart, there seems to be an increased in activity when price moved close to the 1/2 SR (in red rectangle). And I also see that the activity increased also when the price moved lower (in blue rectangle).

Just a clarification, how do we analyze for this case?
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  • #52,204
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:30am Jul 1, 2013 4:30am
Quoting traderathome
EU Long Trade: Entered #1 long, Classic. This is a counter trend trade based on the presumption the MMs will retrace price to reload shorts at some higher price. {image}
Quoting meirk
{quote} Tah I understand your assumption about retrace but in other hand you teach us that when MM bear you never know when they will decide to perform it and the best is to build a positions. isn't it too risky or against your strategy apprauch?
PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears?

I understand your question. And it might seem strange that I took a long trade after earlier doing an analysis based on last weeks PA and stating the MMs were bears. Things do change. They can change suddenly and dramatically. The MMs are not honor bound to follow in the next minute what they did in the previous minute. Current PVSRA was indicating to me the MMs had switched to bulls, as hard as that might seem. If you look at M1 subsequent to the AO you will see the higher volumes as the MMs drove price down. The MMs were seeking lower prices to add longs, indicating they were bulls. However, I did realize they might only be bulls temporarily, long enough to show themselves as bulls so as to attract more traders to the bull side to help create momentum to get the price higher where the MMs will quietly switch back to bears again, while the rest of the market goes on to enjoy being bulls,....for a while longer. Yes, some speculation, but PVSRA indicated the MMs were bulls, so I took the trade.
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  • #52,205
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:35am Jul 1, 2013 4:35am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} I understand your question. And it might seem strange that I took a long trade after earlier doing an analysis based on last weeks PA and stating the MMs were bears. Things do change. They can change suddenly and dramatically. The MMs are not honor bound to follow in the next minute what they did in the previous minute. Current PVSRA was indicating to me the MMs had switched to bulls, as hard as that might seem. However, I did realize they might only be bulls temporarily, long enough to show themselves as bulls so as to attract more...
It's too bad FF does not have a like button.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #52,206
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:43am Jul 1, 2013 4:43am
Quoting akyong
{quote} Hi Prof Tah, Just a quick clarification as I'm still learning From the 1M chart, there seems to be an increased in activity when price moved close to the 1/2 SR (in red rectangle). And I also see that the activity increased also when the price moved lower (in blue rectangle). Just a clarification, how do we analyze for this case? {image}
PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears?

MMs didn't like buying long above the 1/2SR, so they dropped the price lower for better prices to add longs. By doing so, they could end up with an average price for their long position that was not so high. On their pushes down, they sucked in shorts to give them liquidity for their long orders. The 1/2SR is the key, and how long the MMs will build below it before busting it out.
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  • #52,207
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:49am Jul 1, 2013 4:49am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears? I understand your question. And it might seem strange that I took a long trade after earlier doing an analysis based on last weeks PA and stating the MMs were bears. Things do change. They can change suddenly and dramatically. The MMs are not honor bound to follow in the next minute what they did in the previous minute. Current PVSRA was indicating to me the MMs had switched to bulls, as hard as that might seem. If you look at M1 subsequent to the AO you will see the higher volumes as the MMs drove price...
As soon as you have clear that it could be only a retrace, it seems valid. I'm with you, things change, but imho EU still bears. However, we are on Monday and between today and tomorrow they can hike the prices perfectly to the .3080 - .3100 zone. So if you can catch a few pips with the retrace, why not?

Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #52,208
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:52am Jul 1, 2013 4:52am
GJ

Price move above the whole number on the 15m chart followed by high trading activity.

Similar on the 1min chart where price moved above 1/2 SR followed by high trading activity.

This indicates the MMs are still bears and are building on short positions?
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  • #52,209
  • Edited 5:03am Jul 1, 2013 4:52am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting traderathome
EU Long Trade: Entered #1 long, Classic. This is a counter trend trade based on the presumption the MMs will retrace price to reload shorts at some higher price. {image}
Quoting meirk
{quote} Tah I understand your assumption about retrace but in other hand you teach us that when MM bear you never know when they will decide to perform it and the best is to build a positions. isn't it too risky or against your strategy apprauch?
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} As soon as you have clear that it could be only a retrace, it seems valid. I'm with you, things change, but imho EU still bears. However, we are on Monday and between today and tomorrow they can hike the prices perfectly to the .3080 - .3100 zone. So if you can catch a few pips with the retrace, why not? Best, Tymedu.
Tymedu, how much better you stated it!
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  • #52,210
  • Jul 1, 2013 5:18am Jul 1, 2013 5:18am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EJ Short Trade: Added short trade #18 (131.083), Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs hiked price back above whole number on increased trading right after the LS closed, indicating the MMs are bears seeking higher prices to short at and wanting to take advantage of competition for liquidity being reduced once the LS closed. {image}
My Bitch Trade

Everybody gets one, sometime. This is mine. Started when I was a baby, and now that I've one foot in the grave, it might be topping off!

Just added short trade #19 (@ 130.00), Scout. Based on no reason whatsoever except that price has moved to the higher whole number SR again (130.00).
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  • #52,211
  • Jul 1, 2013 5:54am Jul 1, 2013 5:54am
PVSRA, GU: Bulls or Bears?

The MMs are starting off the week as bulls, but right now they are working the price back lower, ahead of the US open. It will be interesting to see what the US MMs do, and what the London MMs do just before the US open. I am looking to add long, and if the MMs get the price down to the FR 50% area, I might. If I do, and they then push it down even further (FR 62% area) I might add again.
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  • #52,212
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:09am Jul 1, 2013 6:09am
Hi Tah, i read your post about GU but i feel a little confused. In m1 chart above 1/4sr there is a lot of action, volumen is moving in tops of mini waves. How could we read this? Are they putting theirs long orders thanks to the liquidity from hunting bears?

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Thanks
  • #52,213
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:17am Jul 1, 2013 6:17am
Quoting kapoera
Hi Tah, i read your post about GU but i feel a little confused. In m1 chart above 1/4sr there is a lot of action, volumen is moving in tops of mini waves. How could we read this? Are they putting theirs long orders thanks to the liquidity from hunting bears? {image} Thanks
PVSRA, GU: Bulls or Bears?

The reason to do the PVSRA on M1 is to see what the MMs are currently doing, and to form both an objective and subjective conclusion. So, once you saw the MMs won't go above a certain price, are they bears? Are they bulls? Watch what they do next. In this case they began to work the price back lower, taking advantage of lower prices,.....before the US MMs get to! This is subjective, not objective. So, still more ongoing PVSRA needs to be done, but overall it appears the MMs are bulls, but will not go too high yet, not until they have built bigger long positions.
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  • #52,214
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:27am Jul 1, 2013 6:27am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Long Trade: Added long #3, Scout re-entry as bull MMs pulled price back to 1/4SR. Adjusted TPl {image}
GU Long Trade:

Added long #4, Scout. This is based on the MMs working price lower before the US open, maybe in an attempt to find and use up liquidity for getting their long orders filled before the US open. If the US MMs take it even lower, I might add again. Adjusted TP.
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  • #52,215
  • Jul 1, 2013 6:34am Jul 1, 2013 6:34am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Long Trade: Added long #2, Classic also, but a tad early. PVSRA shows the LO MMs ran the price down between the 3/4SR and 1/2SR and traded heavily, indicating they remain bulls. Adjusted TP. {image}
AU Long Trade:

Added long #3, Classic also. Adjusted TP.
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  • #52,216
  • Jul 1, 2013 7:42am Jul 1, 2013 7:42am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU Long Trade: Added long #2, Scout re-entry. M1 PVSRA shows MMs stopped the rise (too expensive for longs), lowered the price and eventually traded more heavily again, indicating they are bulls. {image}
EU Long Trade:

Added longs #3 and #4, Scouts. M1 PVSRA shows MMs have lowered price and increased trading, indicating they are bulls seeking lower prices to add longs. Adjusted TP.
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  • #52,217
  • Jul 1, 2013 8:38am Jul 1, 2013 8:38am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU Long Trade: Added longs #3 and #4, Scouts. M1 PVSRA shows MMs have lowered price and increased trading, indicating they are bulls seeking lower prices to add longs. Adjusted TP. {image}
As M1 shows MMs driving down further to take previous stops, their average price will look better the further they go. It looks like they started at 1.30516? Is that right TAH? I'm guessing the rising prices now will be stopped (stopping volume) before where they start as they drive another cycle of collecting for long, and stay here as long as they want?
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #52,218
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:13am Jul 1, 2013 9:13am
Just wanted to clarify. Sorry, I know the volumes are not here (don' t have access to Mt4 at the moment). But we can see the general PA is driving price down to take previous stops. We can assume they started from the previous half SR, but we can see the quarter SR is better for their average price. The pink box shows what I think is currently their "working" level. Would it make much sense for them to drive price down beyond the quarter level? The further they go, the bigger the run they'll need to recover.

Although a retrace could be the other explanation, but wouldn't a retrace mean another opportunity to build shorts in the bigger picture?
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #52,219
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:18am Jul 1, 2013 9:18am
Wow,

As I was compiling previous post, there was a huge spike in volume to drive price down below my current window. Further confirmation MMs taking out previous lows again and thus making MMs Bulls?
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #52,220
  • Jul 1, 2013 9:38am Jul 1, 2013 9:38am
USDCHF short trade Scout. MM take the price above the 0.95000 and increase the volume considerably. I think MM are BEARs.
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