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EUR/CHF

  • #10,601
  • Jun 16, 2013 12:00pm Jun 16, 2013 12:00pm
Anybody got any views on this pair for the week?
  • #10,602
  • Jun 16, 2013 4:44pm Jun 16, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting brinks
{quote} Are shorter timeframe head and shoulder patterns reliable?
The market answered you on Friday, EC found resistance on 1.2330(mentioned that neckline) and fell.
Be informed that I had not rely on that inverted head and shoulder to conclude that level as you can see mentioned under 1.2330 or up 1.2370 before that pattern was formed. 'It was just an added bonus proof in my overall analysis.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,603
  • Jun 16, 2013 4:59pm Jun 16, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting brinks
Anybody got any views on this pair for the week?
Who other than me can give you that

I think EC gonna target 1.248* before SNB Meeting, has 1.236* resistance to clear first. Any positive SNB news can help in 1.264*, next? Will follow afterwards Downside possibilities under 1.2290, back to 1.22 1.217* and 1.21 That's too much help
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,604
  • Jun 17, 2013 1:06am Jun 17, 2013 1:06am
Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} Who other than me can give you that I think EC gonna target 1.248* before SNB Meeting, has 1.236* resistance to clear first. Any positive SNB news can help in 1.264*, next? Will follow afterwards Downside possibilities under 1.2290, back to 1.22 1.217* and 1.21 That's too much help
Thanks J.Clinton
  • #10,605
  • Jun 17, 2013 9:45am Jun 17, 2013 9:45am
Surprises may happen since Jordan says the peg may be tweaked.
But I don't think he will mention it during the SNB announcement this Thu.
It can possibly be weeks or months after this SNB.

A possible scenario is lifting the peg to 1.25 after EURCHF has significantly show stability trading mostly above 1.25, then SNB has a 'free' intervention to move the peg there without buying any euros.

I've got no EURCHF positions on right now, just waiting & have been waiting patiently for a long time to go long.
  • #10,606
  • Jun 17, 2013 9:46am Jun 17, 2013 9:46am
Finally we are trying to break up above 1.2330. If it is success we could brake up the decreasing channel in h4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchfh4.png Size: 94 KB
  • #10,607
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:01pm Jun 17, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting Simon73
Finally we are trying to break up above 1.2330. If it is success we could brake up the decreasing channel in h4 {image}
Just when you think it's going to breakout it settles right back down
  • #10,608
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:10am Jun 18, 2013 4:10am
According to UBS bears are on the way:
http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/...gger-deeper-se
  • #10,609
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:13am Jun 18, 2013 4:13am
Quoting tommytimms
According to UBS bears are on the way: http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/...gger-deeper-se

Looks like they are right
  • #10,610
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:17am Jun 18, 2013 4:17am
Guys, what this drop from1.233* to 1.229* about? Looks like a pure CHF move. Yen-pairs not affected. A rumour or a leak? If so what would be the content? No raise of the peg and no negative rates? No one was really expecting that though, so what could be the reason? Thoughts?
  • #10,611
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:22am Jun 18, 2013 4:22am
Ok, this must be it: "Swiss lower house refuses to debate draft law on US tax agreement" (found on forexlive). But no idea really why this should give the CHF a boost. Isn't this a risk factor for the Swiss economy?
  • #10,612
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 18, 2013 5:31am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Ok, this must be it: "Swiss lower house refuses to debate draft law on US tax agreement" (found on forexlive). But no idea really why this should give the CHF a boost. Isn't this a risk factor for the Swiss economy?

I think the reason the swissie is getting stronger over this news is it will still be seen as a safe place to hide money if not passed
  • #10,613
  • Jun 18, 2013 1:26pm Jun 18, 2013 1:26pm
Dudes, thanks for helping me ROFL after seeing your comments. Why do you like to spend energy wastefully and make headaches for yourselves by following useless analysis and sites. When the only Real Analysis is found couple of posts above, I posted it on Sunday.
A single meaningful sentence talks better than whole paragraphs and charts. Where were they when I posted my analysis.
Market moved like I(Proudly) said. Can you read? 1.236*(Resistance) and 1.2290(Support).
Instead of trading according to these levels shorting and longing, you were searching sites for analysis or news of why?
The worst are who had done nothing till now in spite of EC went to 1.2220 last week and I already mentioned 1.2290 support for this week. Maybe when EC goes to 1.25 you will start buying, oh no you will wait for SNB announcement of 1.25 Peg after some years coming

Don't take it offensive or showing off fellows(BAS), can read between the lines, importance in learning for next time if any
Read my signature, never trade against the market current condition/momentum. Monday was very clear price going to 1.236* resistance, when it dropped down today it was also clear it will not break 1.2290 support(my analysis).
Regardless of where the market will end going after FOMC and SNB, take advantage of the current market condition and if you do not want to bet on news that might end EC Up or Down, you already earned enough easy pips from these levels.

A final bonus analysis, all know that I said EC going up up to 1.248* if it breaks 1.236*, there will not be any influence on 1.241* resistance this time.
Will add that EC would not break 1.219* unless there is a big big good news for the CHF or very very reckless SNB Policy. Because this 1.219* important support is a reflection in my analysis that had never been broken such support level(increasing) from time EC was in the 1.200* level, this is why I insist on this support can not get broken under normal market circumstances until sometime if ever
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,614
  • Jun 19, 2013 5:30am Jun 19, 2013 5:30am
Quoting J.Clinton
...Can you read? 1.236*(Resistance) and 1.2290(Support). Instead of trading according to these levels shorting and longing, you were searching sites for analysis or news of why?...Don't take it offensive or showing off fellows(BAS), can read between the lines, importance in learning for next time if any Read my signature, never trade against the market current condition/momentum.... Regardless of where the market will end going after FOMC and SNB, take advantage of the current market condition and if you do not want to bet on news that might end...
Alright man, no offence taken, and you certainly got it right (again!), so you definitely ARE the guru here. But don't you think the recent Swiss parliament vote changed the current market condition? Are we still trading a 1.2290/1.236* window for tonight (FOMC) and tomorrow (SNB)? Or how do you take advantage of current market condition when you sit right in between at 1.2325? 50% long and 50% short? And then TP when close to the upper or lower end of the range because you expect a swing back into the other direction, thus diminishing the losses of your losing trade? And at the same time, whenever close to the upper or lower end of the range, open a counter position expecting the swing back? Sorry man, but if I'm gonna change my strategy I first gotta change my way of thinking and for that I need some idiot-proof guidance. Would appreciate your thoughts!
  • #10,615
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:21am Jun 20, 2013 1:21am
Last poll before SNB meeting. What is your thoughts?

There was no any rally before this meeting, (as usually) so this means for me the market priced "no changes"

Yesterday FOMC was USD positive, which helped in the past to go up.

If there will be "No changes", i think there will be some drop to 1,23 or 1,225-1,227, but after we could go up to 1,236 and 1,242 and may be 1,248

If there will be any changes (direkt or verbal) we could go up above 1,236.
  • #10,616
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:25am Jun 20, 2013 1:25am
Quoting Simon73
Last poll before SNB meeting. What is your thoughts? There was no any rally before this meeting, (as usually) so this means for me the market priced "no changes" Yesterday FOMC was USD positive, which helped in the past to go up. If there will be "No changes", i think there will be some drop to 1,23 or 1,225-1,227, but after we could go up to 1,236 and 1,242 and may be 1,248 If there will be any changes (direkt or verbal) we could go up above 1,236.

My opinion no change and down toward 1.21960.

I'am small long at the moment and will continue to add on any fall.

Certainly some lumpy price action happening on the 4hr at the moment.
  • #10,617
  • Jun 20, 2013 2:17am Jun 20, 2013 2:17am
So perfect day for floor raise
  • #10,618
  • Jun 20, 2013 2:19am Jun 20, 2013 2:19am
1- no negative rate so eurchf will drop maybe to 1.22x 2- peg adjustment will be reiterated in press so it will go further than 1.25
  • #10,619
  • Jun 20, 2013 2:43am Jun 20, 2013 2:43am
Quoting holmes
1- no negative rate so eurchf will drop maybe to 1.22x 2- peg adjustment will be reiterated in press so it will go further than 1.25
there was no change, but small drop only yet.

it should be drop a little more 20-50 pips to buy, before any verbal intervention in the press conference from Jordan
  • #10,620
  • Jun 20, 2013 3:30am Jun 20, 2013 3:30am
Boring SNB...
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