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EUR/CHF

  • #10,561
  • May 24, 2013 5:27am May 24, 2013 5:27am
Interesting moment, will see if the trend line, 200 sma and fibo lvl will hold again!
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  • #10,562
  • May 24, 2013 9:05am May 24, 2013 9:05am
Quoting Haqu
Interesting moment, will see if the trend line, 200 sma and fibo lvl will hold again! {image}
Seems not, the 4 h broken the trend line, no wait for some confirmation. If it won't get back, i would except as i previosly stated movement to 1.238x and 1.234x-1.236. There i will consider reloading my longs.
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  • #10,563
  • Edited 2:24pm May 30, 2013 2:12pm | Edited 2:24pm
Something critical gonna happen between Today Tomorrow and next Monday.
Would like to see a drop to 1.2300-20 major support between today and tomorrow to Long for 1.264 Tp
If Market struggle to go there and decide to base on 1.2440(close up) until Monday, support may rise to 1.2360-70 on Monday to continue to 1.264 afterwards.
Not coincident seeing it struggling all over 1.2440. It will be a really wonderful kind of game to see how the battle would end between EC bulls and bears in these couple of days.

However, the best movement would like to see is a drop to 1.2300-20(between Today Tomorrow ) and a quick rise to base up 1.2440 until Monday.
In between, a Friday close under 1.2360/70 would be a very bearish sign to 1.2195-00 before June SNB Monetary Policy. Actually, would rise from there to 1.25 or 1.26 before 20 June.

In the bigger picture, EU and UC have potential 80-100pip Up/Down, that will drop EC to that 1.2300-20 I think
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,564
  • May 31, 2013 2:14am May 31, 2013 2:14am
wooowww...
head and shoulder with croosing MA 100 become strong resistance

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  • #10,565
  • Jun 4, 2013 6:51am Jun 4, 2013 6:51am
Quoting J.Clinton
Something critical gonna happen between Today Tomorrow and next Monday. Would like to see a drop to 1.2300-20 major support between today and tomorrow to Long for 1.264 Tp If Market struggle to go there and decide to base on 1.2440(close up) until Monday, support may rise to 1.2360-70 on Monday to continue to 1.264 afterwards. Not coincident seeing it struggling all over 1.2440. It will be a really wonderful kind of game to see how the battle would end between EC bulls and bears in these couple of days. However, the best movement would like to...
Nice job! You were absolutly correct. Yesterday and 1,2320.

The big question: This was the low before SNB meeting rally, or could we see another? This week has a lot of risk event: ADP, Beige book tomorow, ECB Rate decision, and Friday NFP.

Next week will be easier.
  • #10,566
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:37am Jun 6, 2013 2:37am
I think these CHF weakness was because of USD rally last weeks. The reason of the USD rally is the tappering talking. In 2009 march FED started QE1 which was the main reason to weaken the USD. Ahter that we had QE2, and QE3. These days there is talking about stop or decrease the amount of QE/ month. These depends on the USA macro data especially NFP (tomorrow, and the next months). The lot of hedge funds, analizers expect the start of taperring in 2013 september-december. The start of tapering will come closer the rate hike at USD. (Early 2014). This means the USD will change the down trend to up trend in a few months.

There is an interesting chart in 2009:

In 2009 march the FED anonunced the QE program. The EURUSD spiked more than 600 pips in a day. BUT: in the next 30 days the pair gave back all this pips, and went below the QE anouncing level. And after that correction the big USD selling rally strated for years, in the first wave there was 2200 pip.

The situation is the same today. If we see the USDCHF chart, there is 600 pips uptrend in tappering talk. Now we see the downtrend after it, maybe goes below the initial level. But i think the USD rally will start soon, and this will be the main trend for years. I know that tappering will start only september or october, but market always react before the news. These USD trend changing will help EURCHF to go higher level in 2013 and 2014
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  • #10,567
  • Jun 8, 2013 1:14am Jun 8, 2013 1:14am
Hi all it's been a long time since I have been on this thread as I haven't traded this pair since 1.20.

However after the breakout I waited for this pullback to start taking some long term positions.

What are everyone's thoughts for this pair price wise over the next couple of months is it going to range or is it going to break higher?
  • #10,568
  • Jun 8, 2013 8:51am Jun 8, 2013 8:51am
If you read Simon73's analysis and reasoning on the QE tappering along with proof of the charts he provides, it is pretty clear that as we approach 2014 with the interest rates for USD going up, this pair is going to rise and rise significantly from these levels. Right now the EUR/CHF is not an "exciting" pair to trade as other pairs are viewed. However, the main objective is to make some nice returns. With this pair, it is pretty clear of the results with the coming increase of USD interest rate hikes as Simon73 has shown from past similar scenario.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #10,569
  • Jun 9, 2013 1:35am Jun 9, 2013 1:35am
Thanks lebleup I did read simon73s post and as you said it was very interesting and I agree the recent chf weakness has been due to usd/chf buying.

one thing though I don't see just because the fed start tapering QE that means they will start raising rates soon after
  • #10,570
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:07am Jun 9, 2013 7:07am
Quoting brinks
Thanks lebleup I did read simon73s post and as you said it was very interesting and I agree the recent chf weakness has been due to usd/chf buying. one thing though I don't see just because the fed start tapering QE that means they will start raising rates soon after
One thing is for sure, the markets are so unstable worldwide that any move on the part of those "in charge" of the financial well-being of nations, have to move calculatingly to keep the calm as much as possible. The USD has been hammered for years....YEARS. Interest rates have been lowered to counter for YEARS. Now, instead of just raising rates right out of the blue, the FED has to broadcast its intentions, ie....... "tapering" of QE...... comes before the actual raising of rates. The markets look ahead 6 to 9 months and start to position. That is what we are starting to see. Long term here. Check back in 6 months and you'll begin to see without a doubt. 1 year, even more so.... 2 years...etc etc
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #10,571
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:31am Jun 9, 2013 7:31am
Quoting lebleup
{quote} One thing is for sure, the markets are so unstable worldwide that any move on the part of those "in charge" of the financial well-being of nations, have to move calculatingly to keep the calm as much as possible. The USD has been hammered for years....YEARS. Interest rates have been lowered to counter for YEARS. Now, instead of just raising rates right out of the blue, the FED has to broadcast its intentions, ie....... "tapering" of QE...... comes before the actual raising of rates. The markets look ahead 6 to 9 months and start to position....
well as I'm long an looking to add more i hope we do start to see a shift,what is your prediction for 6 months time ?
  • #10,572
  • Jun 9, 2013 7:46am Jun 9, 2013 7:46am
Quoting brinks
{quote} well as I'm long an looking to add more i hope we do start to see a shift,what is your prediction for 6 months time ?

All I can 'predict' is UP from these levels. Time will tell. This is a very long term position for me. I will build into.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #10,573
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 12:41am Jun 9, 2013 8:40am | Edited Jun 10, 2013 12:41am
Quoting lebleup
{quote} All I can 'predict' is UP from these levels. Time will tell. This is a very long term position for me. I will build into.
we will see,lets hope so.

im not sure this pair is ready to start a medium,long term uptrend yet.
  • #10,574
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:13am Jun 12, 2013 7:13am
A lot of long positions liquidated in recent days. And a lot of short positions opened.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#EUR/CHF

Ideal situation to go up before SNB meeting next week. We have 5 days. In the past the rally started 2-5 days before the meeting. We have 5 days.

Of course we need a lot fo rumuors like peg hiking to 1,25 or 1,3 or other, and negative rate or capital controll. And we need a lot of recomendation from Barclays, Credit Suise, HSBC etc.etc about 1,25 or 1,3 target price.

I think we will hear this news/rumours soon
  • #10,575
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:18am Jun 12, 2013 7:18am
FX CHAT: Downside risks ahead for EUR/CHF, says Barclays,...




with a bearish engulfing candle on the charts warning of slippage towards 1.2250,
possibly even 1.2180. Now at 1.2320, the bank says it would take a move above 1.2420
to change this bearish view.

([email protected])


A little bit oposite rumor from Barclays)
  • #10,576
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:27am Jun 12, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Max FX
FX CHAT: Downside risks ahead for EUR/CHF, says Barclays,... with a bearish engulfing candle on the charts warning of slippage towards 1.2250, possibly even 1.2180. Now at 1.2320, the bank says it would take a move above 1.2420 to change this bearish view. ([email protected]) A little bit oposite rumor from Barclays)
Source and date?

Thanks
  • #10,577
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:30am Jun 12, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} Source and date? Thanks
Dow Jones. Today.
  • #10,578
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:30am Jun 12, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Simon73
A lot of long positions liquidated in recent days. And a lot of short positions opened. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#EUR/CHF Ideal situation to go up before SNB meeting next week. We have 5 days. In the past the rally started 2-5 days before the meeting. We have 5 days. Of course we need a lot fo rumuors like peg hiking to 1,25 or 1,3 or other, and negative rate or capital controll. And we need a lot of recomendation from Barclays, Credit Suise, HSBC etc.etc about 1,25 or 1,3 target price. I think we will hear this...
I think the consensus is for no change at the SNB meeting so may be a good time to catch the market off guard?
  • #10,579
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:33am Jun 12, 2013 7:33am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} Dow Jones. Today.
Sorry, could you share the link? I could not find in google. Thanks
  • #10,580
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:36am Jun 12, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} Sorry, could you share the link? I could not find in google. Thanks
You won't find it in google. This is Dowjones newswires news stream. Many brokers offer it as additional benefit for live account.
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