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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #67,621
  • May 14, 2013 10:43am May 14, 2013 10:43am
Quoting Init Twinnit
Euro abc corrective soon, but into the abyss thereafter! Needs a LL soon to confirm the current cycle to be in 5w yet though... {image} ARTICLE
It says you are a new member, but I think I recognize your handwriting!
  • #67,622
  • May 14, 2013 2:39pm May 14, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
{quote} You and I must be on the same Cosmo...here is what i have. I really haven't updated my weekly as of yet but you get the just. {image} {image}
Quoting Init Twinnit
Euro abc corrective soon, but into the abyss thereafter! Needs a LL soon to confirm the current cycle to be in 5w yet though... {image} ARTICLE
Check this out >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post6680051
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,623
  • May 15, 2013 10:50am May 15, 2013 10:50am
Preparing to enter in the Gold Buy Zone. Check out the 45 Degree Angle Zone and good buy opportunity around 1000 level.

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  • #67,624
  • May 15, 2013 1:54pm May 15, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting rekon67
Preparing to enter in the Gold Buy Zone. Check out the 45 Degree Angle Zone and good buy opportunity around 1000 level. {image}
That's what I've been waiting for since last summer. Hopefully we make it that low this summer.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,625
  • May 16, 2013 1:44pm May 16, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below.
The first scenario of my last review on May 3rd played out. I have not anticipate a larger retrace higher which took place, but the market continued generally lower. Following is my review for today May 16th valid for the coming days:

The Euro kept moving lower despite strong US indices as anticipated on April 30th and May 3rd video reviews. The participation lower initially witnessed at the 1.3240 continued in the last 2 weeks. Moreover, below 1.2840 price confirmed the first target of the daily move lower at the 1.2525 area. I now anticipate price continuing into that target area in the two coming weeks.
What I was not able to anticipate was this reactionary move higher to push early bears out of the markets, but I do only swing trading (that’s where the money is) and don’t try to catch every intraday move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge) http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368729459




The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. A continuation lower from current levels if the correction higher has ended bringing price into the 1.2810 area first and then the 1.2740 area for the second target.

Scenario 2. If the correction higher has not ended just yet, we could see price climbing into the 1.3010-20 area only to revert (there would be resistance of the 20-day SMA there, as well) and continue lower.
As I said, final destination where we could see initial profit taking is at the 1.2525-30 area, first target of the move originated a the 1.3240 area. I will remove my swing short position there.


As usual I am interested in your thoughts, suggestions and ideas.
On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily chart.

Have a great weekend -fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #67,626
  • Edited 11:15am May 18, 2013 10:49am | Edited 11:15am
Quoting chess king
only thoughts!? double top and rising wedge !?? target 28xx next week!? or 3200 breakout and 33xx happens..!?
and now what will happen!?
I see a possible channel on the day chart .. bounce to 297X!?
.
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  • #67,627
  • Edited 11:46pm May 19, 2013 9:52pm | Edited 11:46pm
  •  Noeliu
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Hit SL?? Clicked the wrong button | 51 Posts
Hello! I see a very slight divergence between PA and RSI. Does it mean anything?
Please share your opinion

PD: Dont hesitate about the scaled loosers. This is a demo account.
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  • #67,628
  • May 19, 2013 11:54pm May 19, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting Noeliu
Hello! I see a very slight divergence between PA and RSI. Does it mean anything? Please share your opinion {image}
Hi Noeliu.

Divergences, while they serve as great indicators in very specific circumstances in unison with EW counts an/or supply/demand or major pivot trading, are no better than a coin toss for the most part. I'm not saying that you shouldn't take any notice. However, to make a commitment (like you have) for a specific direction and gradually go "all in" through a series of averaging in on losing trades is a dangerous game in my opinion. Regardless, everyone has their own style and risk profile so I'm not going to tell you that "you" shouldn't do it. If you have a system that produces profit, stick with it till it no longer works.

Regardless of all that, if you want to trade against divergences on a daily chart, you may want to consider using an RSI indicator in conjunction with a MacD. Furthermore, the RSI/MacD combo indicator tools are used to indicate probabilities and not absolutes. Therefore, you must use a stop loss even if it is a mental one.

Cheers
PT
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 macd_adjustable.ex4   4 KB | 159 downloads
File Type: ex4 RSI.ex4   3 KB | 164 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,629
  • May 20, 2013 12:16am May 20, 2013 12:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Noeliu. Divergences, while they serve as great indicators in very specific circumstances in unison with EW counts an/or supply/demand or major pivot trading, are no better than a coin toss for the most part. I'm not saying that you shouldn't take any notice. However, to make a commitment (like you have) for a specific direction and gradually go "all in" through a series of averaging in on losing trades is a dangerous game in my opinion. Regardless, everyone has their own style and risk profile so I'm not going to tell you that "you"...
By the way... You asked for my opinion and I neglected to opine on the direction of the E/U pair... so here it is.

Right now I see the pair in a consolidation range between 1.3217 and 1.2748. Unless we get some strong weakness in the Euro, price will most likely make an attempt to retest the upper end of the range. However, I expect sellers ready to jump in below 1.30 and then again just below 1.31 (if it makes it that far) before coming back down to re-challenge the head/shoulder neckline just below current levels at around 1.2770/75

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,630
  • May 20, 2013 4:08am May 20, 2013 4:08am
Hmmm ... interesting

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  • #67,631
  • May 20, 2013 9:31am May 20, 2013 9:31am
For Monday, the EURUSD is now showing flat bullish pattern in its candlestick sentiment from last week’s oversold levels, as prices are now moving on a weak bullish traction in its momentum, due to its Bollinger Bands 21 line closing in its lines for prices to move in a horizontal pattern. Currently, prices are now moving now at 1.2853 and might stay on such range at the moment, and might show more flat bullish movement for the coming hours. As its 5-day EMA, 9-day SMA and 21-day SMS is now showing flat bullish trend in its pattern. As its 63-day SMA (olive line) and 84-day SMA (black line) does indicates that prices might create bullish movement and might continue to show more negative trading for the coming session as prices are now being hindered by the Bollinger Bands 21, as its lines are now closing in.

In its economic outlook, the markets are now showing slight negative signals, as Germany’s Federal Reserve Bundesbank President. Jens Weidmann, called France to take deficit cute rules more seriously to shave budget deficits, signaling it has special obligations in the euro area. In addition, Weidmann indicated that countries like France must not risk the credibility if the new euro-zone rules, though it involves a certain amount of flexibility. The credibility of the new rules certainly won’t be enhance if one were to exhaust and use up to a maximum the flexibility right at the start, Bundesbank chief told the newspaper.

Thus, expect prices to show flat bullish trends as its RSI (14) and MACD (9, 26, 12) showing that prices is now near in the median level.
  • #67,632
  • May 20, 2013 9:34am May 20, 2013 9:34am
I think the EURUSD is heading on consolidation and might stay on such range..
  • #67,633
  • May 20, 2013 5:27pm May 20, 2013 5:27pm
D1: USDOLLAR
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #67,634
  • Edited 7:01pm May 20, 2013 5:44pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Noeliu. Divergences, while they serve as great indicators in very specific circumstances in unison with EW counts an/or supply/demand or major pivot trading, are no better than a coin toss for the most part. I'm not saying that you shouldn't take any notice. However, to make a commitment (like you have) for a specific direction and gradually go "all in" through a series of averaging in on losing trades is a dangerous game in my opinion. Regardless, everyone has their own style and risk profile so I'm not going to tell you that "you"...

I must disagree, respectfully (about divergences)

The most I have ever disagreed with anything you have said (i rarely disagree with you)

To say it is like a coin toss is pretty absurd.


The reason most people fail to trade divergences properly is because there is a counter presence divergence on a higher time frame, that is more of a factor than the smaller TF divergence the trader thinks is important to the current price action.


This is the primary reason I don't even look at the 5 minute TF anymore. Only 15min and above seem to produce anything meaningful, unless the market is in a very active state (such as you are seeing 1 minute candles 10 pips in range).

Such as Draghi or Bernanke, or NFP.



I agree with everything else you said about averaging losers. It's a dangerous game. I only will do it if I happen to see another good setup, before my current trade is stopped out. And only one time averaging down, no more than that.

Example: SL is 50 pips, price moves against 35 pips and I see another good setup, I will take it. But with an sl 10 pips above the 1st entries SL.

And only in extreme conditions will I do this.. when I am very very confident it will go my way.


charT: EURUSD daily divergences from a while back.... early april

You enter when price gets near the swing high that represents the momentum high.. with an SL literally 2 pips above that high, because the trade is invalidated if price even breaks the level, so there is no point putting the SL any higher than that.


Notice how in April the hidden divergences on the daily stopped being as effective. The reason for this is that the weekly was running off a divergence of its own, so the daily hidden div produces nothing more than a 50 pip pullback.

However before NPF, every hidden div produced strong follow through, and every divergence produced a pullback.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #67,635
  • May 20, 2013 6:57pm May 20, 2013 6:57pm
Eur is Mixed with opposing TF's

Daily and H4 trying to raise off the Floor..........
H1 nearing a top,
M15 is at a top...
Asian session - I expect for it to go long and then reverse back to it's session open...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #67,636
  • May 21, 2013 5:35am May 21, 2013 5:35am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I must disagree, respectfully (about divergences) The most I have ever disagreed with anything you have said (i rarely disagree with you) To say it is like a coin toss is pretty absurd. The reason most people fail to trade divergences properly is because there is a counter presence divergence on a higher time frame, that is more of a factor than the smaller TF divergence the trader thinks is important to the current price action. This is the primary reason I don't even look at the 5 minute TF anymore. Only 15min and above seem to produce...
After re-reading my post, I have to admit that I agree with your disagreement because you rightfully understood the term "coin toss" in the wrong context. Let me explain.
To me a "coin toss" is anything short of an extremely high probability trade, and in absence of such a high probability trade setup, averaging in on losing trades makes it a "coin toss" in the traditional sense

Thanks for posting here R2R... it's been a while. Many green pips to you my friend.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,637
  • May 21, 2013 9:45am May 21, 2013 9:45am
Quoting fibstalker
The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year. Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500.
In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that). Anyway we are seeing price very close to that 1675 area of second target. I believe the target came at 1671, although we could still see 1677 area.

Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then the 1671 second target. I don't anticipate higher prices straight away now and the S&P500 could see profit taking. Price could stretch as high as 1677 area before we see a move lower. The reason for the 1677 level is explained on the video in my blog.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1369146193



These are the scenarios I could anticipate for the S&P500 going forward:

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.

Scenario 2a. If participation on the long side does not show up at around the 1632 area and price dips below 1620, we could witness a swift move lower into the next area of support where Program Trading will pick up price. That is down at the 1454 area.

Scenario 2b. We could still see a bounce at the 1632 area and then current highs retested and then a swift move lower. The trigger, again, will be price piercing below the 1620 level.

You can find a better explanation of these scenarios in my last blog's post: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Please let me have your ideas and suggestions.
Thank you

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #67,638
  • May 21, 2013 5:20pm May 21, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500. In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that). Anyway we are seeing price very close to that 1675 area of second target. I believe the target came at 1671, although we could still see 1677 area. Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then...
Great video FibStalker. I like scenario 2b and I believe it carries the higher probability eventually targeting the mid 1400's
I am already positioned short for it with a position I took today at 1670.9 and also a position I took 2 weeks ago at 1624.9

Fingers crossed that I do not have to abort this short trade as it offers a nice RR of 4.4:1 on the 1670.9 position and an RR of 1.8:1 on the 1624.9 position
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,639
  • May 22, 2013 4:46am May 22, 2013 4:46am
I closed my long ... today can be a strange day'm not risking 100 pips to 30 more!?
My target was 297x ....
  • #67,640
  • May 22, 2013 4:52am May 22, 2013 4:52am
GBPUSD falling knife. :nerd:
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