EurAnalysis

Short @ 99 ITM

Time and time again.....Glad I never use a SL. Still got ALL my account equity and now more.

movement upward was bullshit in my opinion, cost me loads of green pips

1. DJN has ECB's Weidmann saying rate stance isn't key issue for EZ econ
2. Also states ECB may adjust rates if new info warrants a cut
3. EUR/USD fills solid bids ahead of 1.3100 tests ~ 1.3090
4. Large stops touted below session lows, through April 15 low more stops likely
5. Close below 1.3020 suggests top may be in & a run at 1.2900 may be in order
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/gat47t

EUR/USD breaks below 1.3100

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The bounce of the euro versus the dollar quickly found resistance at the 1.3145 level, forcing the cross to resume the slide at the beginning of the New York session. The downside pressure for EUR/USD was fueled by Buba's Weidmann saying that ECB may adjust rates if new information warrants.

Meanwhile, with indexes opening negatively in Wall Street, the euro and other risky assets failed to find respite as market sentiment remains fragile.

EUR/USD broke below previous lows and the 1.3100 mark, stretching to a low of 1.3075 in recent dealings. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3080, 100 pips or 0.7% below its opening price. On the downside, the 200-hour SMA around 1.3070 should offer immediate support followed by 1.3020 (Apr 15 low).

EUR- Back below 1.3113- Now in key congestion range 1.3060/70.. backed by R1 at 1.3035/40.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/product...png?1366208720

Out of short @99 for +56

Reason: RSI3 although still below 50 was rising some

Hey when Ms Market gives you a windfall TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN.

Again this is why I use MM pyramid and hyper scalp with no SL.

Not for everyone and definitely not for the timid or those who are impatient or want a quick get rich scheme.

But it is for those who want to walk to wealth and not race to riches (ruin)

Pipnography for Pip Pervs

Got an existing short @1.2990

Unfortunately its within my current MM Price Saturation zone (54 pips) so I have to stand down at his level.

Will re-short if PA goes above and indos (5SMA & 15 SMA) & RSI3 give me the sell nod.

Have plenty of room for a long here but indos say that is not a good move right now.

The Wiedemann inspired flush aside, most of the action today has been intra-European, specifically in the equity markets. A break in the German DAX to red numbers on the year is a significant event that further led to an unwinding of a very populated pairs trade, long DAX, short Eurostoxx. But, strangely, the sour mood is having no impact on peripheral bond spreads. While EURUSD is back at the lows of the week, if we've learned anything recently it's that the EUR probably isn't going down in any meaningful way until that happens. Charts here: http://link.reuters.com/dat47t and here: http://link.reuters.com/fat47t

Long @53

Reason PA went above 5 SMA and RSI3 over 50

30M PA not near HSR (resistance) or Fibs

Had white candle on 1 min (used for precise entry)

As for MM price saturation zone my next long is at 1.3196 so well outside of the range.

Also this was a big sell off so some retracement is to be expected.

I have to leave for a client meeting in a few and will be back later.

Good luck to one and all.

1.3020 Safe for now but bearish signs grow

 

1. Weidmann inspired slide runs stops & follow through hits 1.3034
2. Asian sellers from overnight cover & mid-East buying aides to stem slide
3. Italy's BTP auction has good retail & foreign demand, helps to calm bears
4. Bids at 1.3020/30 (~Apr 15 low) & stops below, close below encourages bears
5. RSI increases bearish bias & US yield advantage grows
6. April 5 low & 200 DMA (1.2900/20) eyed on clear move through 1.3020
7. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/but47t

The EUR/USD has strong support around the overnight low of 1.3000 and that will likely hold in the Asian session, says BNZ FX Strategist Kymberly Martin. "The 'surprise' of the Weidmann comments is probably now largely in the price," she says. The pair is at 1.3032 early in New Zealand after weakening sharply overnight when Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the ECB could lower interest rates if economic and inflation data suggest it is needed. Looking ahead, she says investors will be watching for UK retail sales, noting that Spain will sell bonds, "a good barometer of current appetite for peripheral European debt."

1. Europe’s attempt to break 1.32 failed (More)
2. Failure came amid spurious rumors of downgrade for Germany & France
3. Soft equity markets also weighed on EUR
4. Comments from Weidmann and Ex-ECB Bini Smaghi also hurt EUR
5. Pair hit low of 1.3001; clear break of 1.30 opens the door to 1.2900/20

Pipnography for Pip Pervs

Hello all,
quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog).

Euro-Dollar FX currency futures

While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes.

Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30 level, we could see a lift starting here into 1.3280 and then 1.3410 area before a larger retrace.

Scenario 2. If the 1.30 level is pierced on the downside price is going to move into the next area of anticipated long participation starting at 1.2980. Below 1.2926 there will still be the 1.2915-20 area of previous support.


Dollar Index futures.

I am sure a lot of people are interpreting today’s move like a confirmation that the Dollar bulls is still intact. Last week, however, an important extension area starting at 83.20 has failed. Failure came with DX price piercing the 82 level on the downside. The current move higher is probably due only to major pairs (EUR/USD, GPB/USD and USD/CAD) setting up for the next measured move (maybe with the exception of the USD/CAD which is trading the next traditional long, after failing the current sequence). The Dollar Index is trading the next short setup and resistance area starting at 82.70 and will keep its bearish stance below 83.15


S&P500 futures.

The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year.


Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Scenario 2. However, below 1,508 price could slide into the next larger (weekly) long setup and participation higher down at 1,416. I don’t think the FED will allow it at this stage.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.
Have a great eve.
Cheers
-fibstalker

Thanks Fibstalker!

I wondered where you where. Love your posts!

I am posting this because 3 out of 3 times the Cycle Gurus have been DEAD on. Down to the days. For what it is worth:

As markets near a change in trend they generally become more volatile. As an example, when EUR/USD peaked just above 1.6000, the first peak was 1.6020 in April 2008 and it took until July and a second test and subsequent fresh high at 1.6040. In the interim it chopped back down to 1.5285, up to 1.5850 and back down to 1.5350 before that last and final test. If indeed EUR/USD is making cycle peak here it should be choppy and if it's not then it's less likely to be a significant high. As cycle analysis is the purview of the cycle gurus we''ll quote their last published EUR/USD view "The euro is then headed higher into the week of April 8 or the following week and our target for this upmove will become the 1.3225 area".



The cycle gurus noted back then "Provided this target area holds the downtrend will resume into early May and this overall weakness could last up to several months longer. Our further objective for the downtrend is the 1.2425 area." So far we've held the 1.3200 level and providing we continue to do so, the cycle gurus' are bearish. They're not the only ones, a large New York investment bank/commercial bank highlights the risk that the DAX and EUR Stoxx 50 are sitting on critical support and if it cedes, they're talking about a further 10% drop from current levels, that would certainly put EUR/USD under pressure.

Our stuff tells us that if 1.3200 holds it would be a very typical weak counter-trend rally that bounced off -2.0 16-wk M/A Bollingers (average ccy cycle 15 1/2 weeks) and has tested the average itself this week (1.3175) One of our Asia desk's good contacts noted last night that he had an eerie sense that the EUR/USD rally was in jeopardy after it struggled to gain 10 pips whilst EUR/JPY managed a decent pop. He noted corporate sellers circa 1.3200 and what he described as a "stealth" offer which he suspected were "macro types". Well the cycle gurus have many followers in Asia and the Middle East, particularly amongst reserve managers so that stealth offer would be consistent with the cycle gurus' view. Oversold conditions start to build on the ultra-short term models between 1.2925/1.3010; short term models 1.2885/1.3020; intermediate models 1.2675/1.2955; and medium term models 1.2690/1.2755. This tells us that we're unlikely to see a collapse in EUR/USD, but more of a zigzag chop lower, buyers appearing when technicals are too stretched with an eye to reload on bounces.

There's an old adage about US equity marts "Sell in May and go away" referring to the reasonably frequent investor apathy in the summer months. US equity marts rallies hard yesterday only to give most if not all of it back today. That followed Monday's blood-letting exacerbated by the bombings in Boston, today it's been "mysterious packages & letters" sent to politicians one of which had traces of Ricin. Hardly conducive for risk on stocks. The gold collapse has unnerved many and after yesterday's bounce we saw weakness again today; oil markets are also in retreat as is copper. Tech stochs sold off on poor earnings reports by US companies, all in all a pretty toxic mix for risk takers - the only excuse, free central bank cash and no yield to be had in "safe" investments.

Traders have been getting reports of gold miners hedging future years production, something that's been unheard of in 7 or 8 years and there's whiff of that going on in energy markets. Toss in the rapid growth of gold and commodity ETFs backed by physical over recent years and every time the commodity complex drops, there's more supply coming to market. At the very least, longs should be looking for rallies to bail on; short sellers will be quicker to pull the trigger given the difficulty EUR/USD is having breaking 1.3200 and corporate hedgers should be looking to take out some insurance on EUR receivables, particularly with continued rumblings about Slovenia and loose talk that they (and perhaps other European sovereigns) may take a similar tack as Cyprus and dump some of their gold reserves to alleviate the bite in growth the austerity programs are levying. ECB's Weidmann today said that a rate cut is possible if conditions demand it. Rumours today of German growth disappointing and driving a fresh recession across the area all seem to be prompting those that need to protect the value of their investments to look for hedges - one of the reasons why EUR/CHF is re-testing the 200-DMA. As volatility is normally a sign of trend change (or resumption) the most likely direction in this environment is lower.

Thanks EuroTrader, and thanks for vouching me (really flattened).
Just doing some big changes... but still around. Check my blog when I don't write here...

Have a great eve.
Ciao
-fibs

You are welcome brother.

Thanks for the reminder on your blog. I will be checking it out everyday as part of my required reading.

I encourage all of my brothers to follow along as well.

And more Pipnography for Pip Pervs