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  • #797,981
  • May 15, 2013 6:22am May 15, 2013 6:22am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Why the heck can't you just give numbers...
Too lazy for that, but since you asked nicely i'll have a look at it

1,3215 open 25 feb

1,3061 high 28 feb

1,2847 open 4th april

1,2900 low 5th april

When we were between 1,3061 and 1,3215 risk was to the downside...in fact anything above 1,3061 needed a retracement down.

Now we are below 1,2900...retrace needed,
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #797,982
  • May 15, 2013 6:23am May 15, 2013 6:23am
W chart.

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  • #797,983
  • May 15, 2013 6:33am May 15, 2013 6:33am
we had a break of the monthly pivot, now we need a test of that pivot, visible res will be just confirmation for me.
swing it!
  • #797,984
  • May 15, 2013 6:33am May 15, 2013 6:33am
Shit which levels are key for longs?! 2850 or 2780? This thing just cannot stop from falling.
  • #797,985
  • May 15, 2013 6:34am May 15, 2013 6:34am
Quoting Mr Hatch
I just remember all the bullshitters in the beginning of the month reasoning, why "Sell in May..." absolutely cannot happen in 2013. And of all those dumb asses that saw buy-zones everywhere, nothing is heard since... they are surely very busy in real-life... grass grows slow.
As far as I know May has 31 days .... In my view we are as close to a top in equities as "one" single daily candle. Point is, catching a top (a bottom) at all time highs (lows) is always a no go option for most investors/traders in any market as nobody wants to be the sucker on the highs(lows) so as soon as their is a confirmed micro sell signal in these levels this is a done deal. Is only a matter of a few sessions in my opiniin...

On currencies just relative dollar strenght as collareral of the wild ride in equities. On the euro lossing 1.298x on the W/M roll will cause collateral damage meanwhile just trading air and sucking early blind bulls....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #797,986
  • May 15, 2013 6:36am May 15, 2013 6:36am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Too lazy for that, but since you asked nicely i'll have a look at it 1,3215 open 25 feb 1,3061 high 28 feb 1,2847 open 4th april 1,2900 low 5th april When we were between 1,3061 and 1,3215 risk was to the downside...in fact anything above 1,3061 needed a retracement down. Now we are below 1,2900...retrace needed,
Ah, thanks a lot.
  • #797,987
  • May 15, 2013 6:38am May 15, 2013 6:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As far as I know May has 31 days .... In my view we are as close to a top in equities as "one" single daily candle. Point is, catching a top (a bottom) at all time highs (lows) is always a no go option for most investors/traders in any market as nobody wants to be the sucker on the highs(lows) so as soon as their is a confirmed micro sell signal in these levels this is a done deal. Is only a matter of a few sessions in my opiniin... On currencies just relative dollar strenght as collareral of the wild ride in equities. On the euro lossing...
I was just talking about the currencies, not equities. What they are doing there is to be seen. A sell-off in equities would lead to even further $-strength, wouldn't it. If so, "sell in May" would remain intact, or am I wrong?
  • #797,988
  • May 15, 2013 6:52am May 15, 2013 6:52am
Long closed 1.28617. + 9 pips I look for another opportunity for long.
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #797,989
  • May 15, 2013 6:55am May 15, 2013 6:55am
trying L 1.28515 sl 1.2843
  • #797,990
  • May 15, 2013 6:55am May 15, 2013 6:55am
Quoting TsunamiPL
Long closed 1.28617. + 9 pips I look for another opportunity for long.
we are still in a bearish mode ..why dont u ride it with tight sl.....u keep trying to catch the bottom..
  • #797,991
  • May 15, 2013 6:58am May 15, 2013 6:58am
I missed the train
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #797,992
  • May 15, 2013 7:03am May 15, 2013 7:03am
Quoting aurel_79
{quote} we are still in a bearish mode ..why dont u ride it with tight sl.....u keep trying to catch the bottom..
This is just human nature, why sell now when i could've sold yesterday at higher price, i will buy at this low price hoping it will be higher tomm...one of my first mistakes i had to work out. My trades sh 1.316 - closed 1.306, sh 1.304 closed 1.298, short from 1.29785 ... Still holding this one aiming @ 200 pips.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #797,993
  • May 15, 2013 7:04am May 15, 2013 7:04am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I was just talking about the currencies, not equities. What they are doing there is to be seen. A sell-off in equities would lead to even further $-strength, wouldn't it. If so, "sell in May" would remain intact, or am I wrong?
Well that is exactly the next FA in play across the board. Answer is not that simple yet. If there is profit taking in equities the pullback wave after the initial knee jerk reaction will not be via risk, therefore the correlation between dollar and equities will not be proportional.

Two factor to keep in mind:

 

  1. One is that The ECB is out of the equation after the last cut so the FED is the catalyst for dollar more than equities. Part of the current dollar strength is in great deal because the expectation that BB will start flirting (or even announce the most extremist as early as next meeting) to take QE out of the table for good.

Whatever the case, one thing for sure is that the US economy is picking speed and is only a matter of months max that rates will enter in play. Rate hikes are the only bump in equities between earth and the moon in the mid/long term. To not complicate much this, point is, if FED sit tight and don't do anything with the next inflation #s in the US under control we are going to have a one more leg down in the dollar (euro to +/-1.391x for reference) which will be prolly the last one in a long long time. If not or/and soon as rates enter in play you better sit tight as the next legs across the board are going to be big (EURO FA level in play is +/- 1.167x and)

 

  1. The second factor is Gold as it will give the thumbs up. A break back up 144x with equities selling off (via profit taking) will put us a back 159x area for the year signaling also dollar weakness and helping the swing up in euro (in all dollar pairs). Failure and clean sweep will open 1230x and below.

We'll see but for now the question is that if we have one more leg down in dollar before or if not ... TA all instruments are holding so far (even euro) so the TA catalyst come from equities topping ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #797,994
  • May 15, 2013 7:14am May 15, 2013 7:14am
this might be it for bears for a little while, hopefully bulls will at least get a decent bounce.
  • #797,995
  • May 15, 2013 7:15am May 15, 2013 7:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well that is exactly the next FA in play across the board. Answer is not that simple yet. If there is profit taking in equities the pullback wave after the initial knee jerk reaction will not be via risk, therefore the correlation between dollar and equities will not be proportional. Two factor to keep in mind: One is that The ECB is out of the equation after the last cut so the FED is the catalyst for dollar more than equities. Part of the current dollar strength is in great deal because the expectation that BB will start flirting [b][color="Red"](or...
I didn't realize that the threat is hanging there that soon...

Digesting the rest of the post, but I think, I got your points.
  • #797,996
  • May 15, 2013 7:16am May 15, 2013 7:16am
Quoting attila
this might be it for bears for a little while, hopefully bulls will at least get a decent bounce.
That's what i see too.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #797,997
  • May 15, 2013 7:17am May 15, 2013 7:17am
I can't quite understand why people absolutely INSIST on going against the trend. When the trend is down, I look for shorts, when it's up...I look for longs. Isn't this just common plain sense? Instead of looking for that perfect trend reversal....why not catch all the meat in the middle? Much less risk involved. Then again to each his own, but in my personal experience....it's much safer and profitable to trade with the trend instead of against it. Much like any water sport.

I blew through my first $2000 because I was afraid to short stocks and always insisted on buying.
  • #797,998
  • May 15, 2013 7:19am May 15, 2013 7:19am
Hey Bulls, we have a situation here...
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  • #797,999
  • May 15, 2013 7:20am May 15, 2013 7:20am
i am not L,, but in normal times i would be... for a few. i closed a s for 36 pips.. the usdx and 2845 are my reasons that we may get a little bounce.. right or wrong
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #798,000
  • May 15, 2013 7:22am May 15, 2013 7:22am
I still see alot of potential to short. There is still alot of steam left to be exhausted. I think we can get to 1.2750 within 2-3 days time and few weeks to 1.24604.
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