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EUR/CHF

  • #10,521
  • May 13, 2013 7:03pm May 13, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting enivid
{quote} That's a good carry trade idea, but the problem is that the SNB is capping CHF against EUR, not MXN or ZAR.
Yeah, that's why I don't hold EC shorts for long period and only on good levels like the ones mentioned in my yesterday post. SNB a problem, do not want to intervene and want to frighten bears.
Not gonna Long MXN and ZAR against CHF, when find a good carry trade on GBPZAR, EUROZAR, EURMXN why not short these pairs? Or because fifth world country currencies must not
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,522
  • May 14, 2013 1:00am May 14, 2013 1:00am
Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} Bad to classify countries like you did. What if a Mexican or South African Guy got offended and reply to you in the same way. Do you think your country have a better classification Can classify economies not countries.
I live in a third world country and I couldn't care less what people think about me, country, economy or anything. You or SA's getting butthurt for stating the truth won't influence the currency markets so I don't care. Don't ever bring your morals to the trading desk.

You want my honest advice? Well, I'll be happy to give you some. If I were you, I would work as hard as I can until I've squirreled away enough savings to go out and try to buy some seeds. Then I'd work even harder until I could afford an adequate amount of fertilizer. Lastly, I'd work my fingers to the bone in overtime until I was the proud owner of a solid plot of land down south. I would then I would go there and attempt to grow some balls.
"Everyone gets what they want out of the market." -- Ed Seykota
  • #10,523
  • May 14, 2013 2:56am May 14, 2013 2:56am
Quoting J.Clinton
.. Bad to classify countries like you did.
Quoting V4X
.. attempt to grow some balls.
If you ladies have quite finished with the handbag fight, perhaps we can get back to business?

We're on a retrace. How far will it go? 1,236 would be 38% retrace of the rise during 2-10 May.

PK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130514 EURCHF retrace.png Size: 71 KB
  • #10,524
  • May 14, 2013 4:15am May 14, 2013 4:15am
Quoting Plofkip
{quote} {quote} If you ladies have quite finished with the handbag fight, perhaps we can get back to business? We're on a retrace. How far will it go? 1,236 would be 38% retrace of the rise during 2-10 May. PK {image}
Thanks Plofkip for making the point.

Regarding business: The recent franc weakness does not seem to have too much fundamental justification in the EUR-CHF relation, but appears to be primarily a side-effect of the dollar rally. EUR fundamentals remain too weak to justify levels above 1.24 in the middle term, but the 1.2380 - 1.2430 range could continue in the short term due to the dollar effect, the low bond rates and the anticipation of negative ECB and (subsequently) SNB rates. I don't think negative rates are going to happen in June, so unless Draghi makes another "game changer" announcement of some sorts on June 2nd EUR/CHF should again fall towards 1.22 by mid June the latest. Personally, I expect a slow grinding EUR weakening even earlier than that (force of gravity, so to speak). I don't expect any sustainable move up beyond 1.2450 before we see 1.2250 - but that's pure intuition. Nevertheless, we should not be too confident about future opportunitites to reload longs. This game will not go on forever and many of the financial minefields (although not yet cleared) have been successfully marked and fenced in. Another few decisive steps in the right direction (e.g. facilitation of credit transmission to private sector, banking union, German elections, etc.) and the market will turn. Then EUR/CHF will skyrocket fast and for good and never return close to 1.20 levels again. That's going to be the ride of a lifetime we all don't want to miss.
  • #10,525
  • May 14, 2013 5:16am May 14, 2013 5:16am
Quoting J.Clinton
Not gonna Long MXN and ZAR against CHF, when find a good carry trade on GBPZAR, EUROZAR, EURMXN why not short these pairs? Or because fifth world country currencies must not
I don't care for the "country's world numbering" at all. As I said, carry trade has its own appeal, which I partially relate to, but it has nothing to do with SNB or EURCHF and is kind of offtopic here.
  • #10,526
  • May 14, 2013 5:18am May 14, 2013 5:18am
CHF fundamentals don't look good either. Last week it was bad CPI, this week it was poor retail sales. With PPI coming out tomorrow, it can still be another negative surprise.
  • #10,527
  • May 14, 2013 7:39am May 14, 2013 7:39am
Quoting enivid
.. carry trade has .. nothing to do with SNB or EURCHF ..
Can't agree with you there. Interest rate differentials and exchange rate expectations are necessarily linked under conditions of capital mobility.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interes...st_rate_parity

PK
  • #10,528
  • May 14, 2013 7:53am May 14, 2013 7:53am
About fundamentals and EURCHF.
It seems to me that the state of the Swiss economy has relatively little bearing on EURCHF at the moment, but that the state of other economies and perceptions of risk in the EU and US are significant. Right now US fundamentals are driving the pair. I have no sense of how much capital is sitting in CHF contemplating a move back into another currency (as the Fed thinks about winding down QE and as fear of a EUR collapse subsides), but I agree with Bluedolphin that one day ..

Quoting Bluedolphin
.. EUR/CHF will skyrocket fast and for good and never return close to 1.20 levels again. That's going to be the ride of a lifetime we all don't want to miss.
  • #10,529
  • May 14, 2013 8:04am May 14, 2013 8:04am
Quoting V4X
{quote} Collecting swap rates using third world's country currency is like picking nickels in front of a bulldozer.
Funniest comment I've seen on here for a while.

Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} ...What if a Mexican or South African Guy got offended ...
This South African guy is not offended.

Off-topic, but currency volatility is usually due to a) lack of liquidity or b) size of economy. In my country's case it is the relative size of our economy. Speculators can chase the ZAR up and down with ease - unrelated to the actual macro economics.
  • #10,530
  • May 14, 2013 9:29am May 14, 2013 9:29am
Quoting Plofkip
... I have no sense of how much capital is sitting in CHF contemplating a move back into another currency ...
I don't have precise numbers either, but just take the increase of SNB FX-reserves since 2009 as an approximate value of how much CHF had to be sold to panicking investors and you get a couple of hundred billion CHF waiting to be re-invested elsewhere. Not precise but not entirely wrong and, as such, pretty impressive, no? So let's hang in there for the BIG ride...
  • #10,531
  • May 14, 2013 11:43pm May 14, 2013 11:43pm
Have no time to reply to random comments from some random people.

All the story was: A human being described 2 countries by third world, replied that it's not appropriate to do that, to read a reply from the same human being commenting uselessly
To show yourself a 'probable' racist, mentioned Mexico and South Africa, you chose South Africa to base your attack on, as if am offended or anything related to both, what an ignorant!
Would not pass through useless arguments about who's the Guru blah blah blah, but I tell you before giving me an unintelligible advice, post some levels on this thread and let others have the honor to clap for you if market mark it in its day levels afterwards(someday in the future actually) as someone said about Longing 1.2195-00 and other levels(review previous posts) Not reply off-base, try to look funny and fail horribly

Nobody with the least intelligence reply by "Do not long a currency in a carry trade because of third world" blah blah blah

Must I be happy that my country is a First World Classification, when trillion of debts shows another fact?

Or You would feel more happy with a 'named' third world country if it reflects economic and political stability?

Didn't like to get out of the thread context, replied briefly but others made from it a war.

Back to the thread, if anyone can remember what I said in past posts, mentioned a Dollar strength and Euro average not very weak = UC EC GC UP
That's what been happening so far, no fundamental have any influence on EC, even with the worst ever CHF PPI, Retail sales, CPI, Unemployment rate and Foreign currencies reserves, can see EC dropping.

I would not say like some others "back to 1.20 peg' and all that nonsense, despite would not lie that I'll be very happy to see that, would say before a retrace to 1.23 or maybe 1.22, 1.25 might be the last high level to see if UC ends its up journey today.

Short Term=' May' turn bearish(retrace) Long Term= Bullish to clear 1.2570 and 1.2650 next 1.30?
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,532
  • May 15, 2013 2:12am May 15, 2013 2:12am
Not the truth, that there is no fact at the moment: I thinkt that is reason, that lead to the recent move up:

http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/sto...Farce-13503640

Translate this text into english and there is reason enough to sell CHF and to buy EUR. If you were a stranger, without any connection to Switzerland, you could think, that there is war on the streets and panic around all banks... limits for withdrawals from banks, etc... quite a negative sentiment related to the news regarding the automatic information exchange or however it is called in english! ;-)

So just keep on selling CHF and buy EUR... i'm well positionned...
  • #10,533
  • May 15, 2013 3:44am May 15, 2013 3:44am
Quoting Swissie
http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/sto...Farce-13503640

Translate this text into english and there is reason enough to sell CHF and to buy EUR.
Thanks, Swissie. I had missed this. The impending changes to banking secrecy are forcing money out of Switzerland. That's more the end of Switzerland as a tax haven than the end of the Swissie as a safe haven asset, but the impact would be the same. If I'm taking my undeclared assets out of Switzerland and moving them to Panama then there is a very good chance that I am at the same time converting CHF to something else.
I was already firmly supportive of the effort to end global tax evasion by the richest individuals and corporations. I now have another good reason to support it.
:-)

(long @ 1,23 for 220 pips and counting.)
  • #10,534
  • May 15, 2013 4:01am May 15, 2013 4:01am
This will rather be the end for hidden untaxed foreign assets in switzerland, but switzerland will remain a tax-haven for rich foreigners, as we do special agreements for whealthy people with our tax authorities... this is what EU is not happy about too.

Switzerland will now wait and see, what singapore, delaware, cayman, and all the other financial places undertake in matters of total transparancy for foreign tax authorities. But in the long run, the banking secrecy will fall and therefore a big advantage for Switzerland will disappear. Not too happy about that, but with my EURCHF long i can live with it. :-) As i mentioned, we still have a good tax-system (competetion between cantons) here in switzerland and this is about to remain. Debt-ratios are good to excellent too and with milliards of EUR in the SNB cave, we can live with the EURCHF upmove too! :-)

Not the worst situation for Switzerland and its white-money-strategy.

Still wondering where all that QE is leading too... when will the whole shit collapse?
  • #10,535
  • May 15, 2013 4:21am May 15, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Then EUR/CHF will skyrocket fast and for good and never return close to 1.20 levels again. That's going to be the ride of a lifetime we all don't want to miss.
I personally hate these insane spikes like we've seen after LTRO repayments, would rather see steady outflows than 1.30 on a skinny leg that can collapse at any given moment.
"Everyone gets what they want out of the market." -- Ed Seykota
  • #10,536
  • May 15, 2013 6:31am May 15, 2013 6:31am
Quoting V4X
.. spikes .. after LTRO repayments ..
God I hate the ECB web site. It's absurdly difficult to find anything.
On the LTRO repayments I have compiled the following table from http://goo.gl/p8D0k
If anyone can find a better source, glad to hear about it.
(Thx V4X. I hadn't been following these repayments.)
PK
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 130515 LTRO repayments.pdf   22 KB | 275 downloads
  • #10,537
  • May 15, 2013 8:50am May 15, 2013 8:50am
Quoting V4X
{quote} I personally hate these insane spikes like we've seen after LTRO repayments, would rather see steady outflows than 1.30 on a skinny leg that can collapse at any given moment.

I also hope the pair will remain in 1.20 - 1.25 area.
I think it will probably hit 1.257 or so, then go down..
  • #10,538
  • May 15, 2013 9:13am May 15, 2013 9:13am
Looks like H&S is forming for both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, it needs to be broken.
"Everyone gets what they want out of the market." -- Ed Seykota
  • #10,539
  • May 15, 2013 10:43am May 15, 2013 10:43am
It is SNB's dream to see CHF devalue., but not without increasing their foreign reserves & balance sheet buying Euros.

Who knows SNB may suddenly lift the peg to 1.25 when EURCHF breaks 1.25 & stabilises there. It is a cost free peg lifting for SNB.
But then they must defend it.
  • #10,540
  • May 16, 2013 1:26pm May 16, 2013 1:26pm
Went long at 1.2396 based on support between 1.238x and 1.2399, 200 sma on 1h frame and 33.2 fibo ret from last bullish move. Targeting in long term 1.2660, SL under last top, around 1.2340.
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